March 2024 ENSO Update: 62% Chance of La Niña by June–August This article originally appeared on climate.gov El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO, which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation—is still hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but signs are pointing to a quick transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 62% chance of La Niña getting the golden ticket by June–August. Stay tuned, because La Niña affects […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 15, 2024 0 Comments
February 2024 ENSO Outlook: 55% Chance El Niño Transitions to La Niña in Summer On a brisk early February morning, all of us El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasters emerged from our burrows and saw our shadows. That can mean only one thing: conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months. Yes, the February ENSO Outlook officially announces that we are in a La Niña Watch, even while, at […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 8, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niño Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niña in Late-Summer/Fall El Niño is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niño’s tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño & […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 12, 2024 0 Comments
Why Did California Break So Many Records This Winter Even Though It Was La Niña? I am sure by now you are well aware of the record-breaking winter that California just experienced! To put this into perspective, the high terrain of California’s current snowpack is in the range of 195% to 300% of the normal average for this time of the season. Even more interesting is the snow water equivalent (amount of water locked up […] Weather Matthew Oliphant | April 25, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA Spring Outlook: With La Niña Officially Over, What Does Spring Hold For the US? In early March 2023, the final La Niña advisory was issued, and La Niña has ended. ENSO-neutral is now present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is favored to continue through the spring and early summer. After that, El Niño is the most likely phase of ENSO from late summer into autumn. The April-May-June (AMJ) 2023 temperature outlook favors above-normal […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 17, 2023 0 Comments
March 2023 ENSO Update: No More La Niña! This article originally appeared on climate.gov La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—has left the building! After a year and half of non-stop La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”. What can we expect for ENSO through the summer and into next […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 9, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update February 2023: La Niña is Weakening – 85% Chance of Neutral Conditions Feb – Apr La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern—weakened over the past month, and forecasters expect a transition to neutral conditions in the next couple of months. We’ll check in with the tropical Pacific to see how things are going before continuing the journey into understanding winter daily temperature variability that I started in December’s post. Current events […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 9, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update Jan 2023: 82% Chance La Niña Will End by Springtime Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean from mid-November 2022 through early January 2023 compared to the long-term average. East of the International Dateline (180˚), waters remained cooler than average, a sign of La Niña. Graphic by Climate.gov, based on data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab. Description of historical baseline period. Hello from the 103rd Annual Meeting of the […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 17, 2023 0 Comments