Weather
Spring 2026 is expected to arrive unevenly across the United States, with lingering cold and late-season snow in northern regions while early warmth and drought concerns develop farther south, according to long-range forecasts from AccuWeather.
AccuWeather meteorologists say the season will be marked by sharp regional contrasts, with winter holding on across parts of the Northeast, Midwest, and northern Plains well into spring, even as the southern half of the country transitions rapidly toward heat and dryness. Astronomical spring begins at 10:46 a.m. EDT on March 20.
Cold Air to Dominate Early in the North
Forecasters expect a slow and uneven shift to springlike conditions from the northern Rockies through the Northeast, particularly during March and early April. AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok said periodic warm spells will occur, but they are likely to be short-lived as cold air repeatedly returns.
The persistence of cold temperatures across the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region will keep the risk of snow in play during the first half of spring, along with late-season frost. Those conditions could affect agriculture and delay planting schedules, especially for farmers and gardeners waiting for sustained warmth.
In many northern areas, forecasters say consistent spring weather may not fully establish itself until May.
Early Heat Raises Drought and Fire Concerns
In contrast, spring warmth is expected to arrive quickly across much of the southern United States, with fewer interruptions from cold air once winter loosens its grip. Pastelok noted that the region experienced one of its warmest springs on record last year, and a similar pattern could return in 2026.
Across the Northwest, the transition to spring is expected to be slower, with warmer conditions developing later in the season. As temperatures rise, rapid snowmelt in April could increase the risk of localized flooding along rivers and streams.
Drought conditions are forecast to worsen across the Southwest, where AccuWeather does not expect widespread spring rainfall. Pastelok warned that the combination of warmth and dryness could allow isolated large wildfires to develop during the spring months.
Dryness may also intensify in parts of the Plains and Southeast. In Florida, forecasters expect limited consistent rainfall until late spring, raising the potential for brush fires across the peninsula.
Severe Weather Season Returns
Severe weather is expected to remain a major spring hazard in 2026, though forecasters anticipate fewer tornadoes than the unusually active 2025 season. Last year’s tornado count exceeded the long-term average, but AccuWeather expects a shift in the dominant threats this spring. Pastelok said damaging straight-line winds and heavy rainfall are more likely outcomes from severe thunderstorms than tornadoes, particularly during March and April.
The highest risk for severe weather is expected from the Mississippi Valley into the Gulf states, where storms may produce flooding rain and wind damage. Tornadoes will still be possible, but they may not be as frequent as last year. Farther north, cooler and more stable air early in the season could suppress severe weather across the northern Plains and Midwest, though forecasters expect activity to increase later in April and into May.
AccuWeather plans to release a more detailed tornado and severe weather outlook for 2026 on March 4.
Flooding Risk to Increase Later in Spring
Forecasters also warn that slow-moving storm systems could increase the risk of flooding across several regions this spring. Pastelok said heavier rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast, particularly from Alabama into northern Florida.
In the central United States, severe storms during March and April could trigger flash flooding and river flooding, especially in parts of Missouri, Kentucky, and the lower Ohio Valley. Additional flooding concerns may arise in New England, the Northwest, and portions of the Rockies as spring snowpack melts.
A Season of Extremes
Overall, AccuWeather’s spring 2026 outlook points to a season defined by contrasts—lingering winter weather in the north, early heat and drought in the south, and recurring severe weather threats across the central United States. As the calendar turns toward spring, forecasters caution that many communities may experience conditions that feel anything but typical for the season.
