Weather
Parts of the United States should prepare for a stormy and cold winter, while other regions brace for warmth and worsening drought, according to the AccuWeather winter 2025–26 forecast.
Forecasters expect an “intense stormy winter” across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. Meteorological winter begins December 1, while astronomical winter starts with the solstice at 10:03 a.m. EST on December 21.
Storms and Snowfall Patterns
A “bookend” winter is projected for much of the central and eastern U.S., with the strongest storms likely in December and again late in the season. Early systems will track from Canada into the Midwest and intensify as they reach the East, setting the stage for potential nor’easters in New England.
Snowfall is forecast to increase above last year’s levels in cities such as Philadelphia, New York, and Boston. However, seasonal totals may still fall below historical averages due to periods of rain mixed with snow. Still, major lake-effect events are anticipated in December, particularly near the Great Lakes. Buffalo, New York, is projected to receive 90–100 inches of snow, near its long-term average and significantly more than the 77.6 inches measured last winter.
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The Midwest, Ohio Valley, and interior Northwest—including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana—should also see a snowier season. Ski areas may benefit from early storms, though a midwinter lull could challenge resorts without a strong base before another wave of snowpack-building storms in March.
- Related: Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter 2025-26 Forecast: When and Where to Expect the Most Snow This Winter
Arctic Air and Energy Costs
AccuWeather expects surges of Arctic air to take hold across the Plains and Midwest in December, driving up heating demands in at least a dozen states. Milder conditions may arrive briefly in January before bitterly cold weather returns in February, when forecasters say the polar vortex could shift southward, bringing some of the coldest air of the season to central and eastern regions.
For the South, outbreaks of cold air will be less frequent, though Pastelok warned of a potential late-January or early-February shift that could unleash “significant cold air” into Texas and the Gulf Coast. Such a pattern would increase the risk of snow and ice as well as severe storms fueled by warm Gulf waters, raising concerns over damaging winds, lightning, and tornadoes.
Warm West, Worsening Drought
Winter conditions west of the Rockies will hinge on a strong marine heat wave in the northern Pacific Ocean. Persistently warm offshore waters are likely to suppress rainfall and snowfall in California and the Southwest, exacerbating drought and increasing wildfire risk.
While December storms could bring vital precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, Cascades, and northern Sierra, the number of atmospheric rivers is expected to fall short of last year’s. January may briefly shift storm activity south toward California, but AccuWeather projects a return to warm, dry weather by February with the potential for near-record highs.
Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming could buck the trend, maintaining colder, snowier conditions than neighboring western states.
La Niña’s Role
Although a La Niña event has not yet been confirmed, forecasters are seeing patterns that echo La Niña conditions—including warmth across the southern tier of the country. Should La Niña materialize, it could amplify those trends and further shape the U.S. storm track.
Preparing for an Unpredictable Season
Skiers and snowboarders should prepare for a season of contrasts, with potentially deep snows early and late in the East and Midwest, counterbalanced by dryness and warmth in the West. Resorts with established bases should weather the midseason lull better, while those in drought-affected regions may face challenges maintaining snow quality and coverage.
