As Australia’s 2025 ski season approaches, early signs point to a potentially promising winter for snow enthusiasts. The Snowy Mountains received their first dusting of snow today, offering a picturesque prelude to the season and bolstering optimism among resort operators and visitors alike.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced on April 9, 2025, that the El Niño phase had officially ended, with the Pacific Ocean now in a neutral state. This shift reduces the likelihood of the dry, warm conditions typically associated with El Niño, which have previously led to disappointing snow seasons. While the BOM has placed Australia on a La Niña watch, indicating a 50% chance of development later this year, current conditions remain neutral and are expected to stay neutral until at least September. Historically, neutral years have provided better snow depth than either El Niño or La Niña years.
Another influence on Australia’s snow season is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A positive IOD is marked by warmer waters near Africa, and cooler waters near Indonesia. It tends to reduce winter and spring rainfall in southeastern Australia, including the Snowy Mountains. While a positive IOD leads to drier conditions and thus less natural snowfall, it can mean colder nights which is important for snowmaking. A negative IOD is marked by warmer waters near Indonesia and brings wetter-than-average weather to southeastern Australia, including the Snowy Mountains. It is generally more favorable for a robust snow season and increases chances of snow-bearing systems, however, can lead to warmer temperatures due to increased cloud cover. The IOD is currently neutral and BOM’s model from May 1 predicts a neutral IOD until at least August.
However, what throws a spanner in the works of what so far sounds like a promising outlook for the 2025 Australian ski season is that BOM is also expecting warmer-than-average temperatures for the winter months. This could potentially mean that much of the precipitation will fall in liquid form, rather than the fluffy, white form we all prefer. According to the temperature model from today, May 1, maximum and minimum temperatures for Australia for the next three months are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average. This only leaves us to hope that we will experience some Antarctic blasts to bring cold air from the southern polar region. Unfortunately, Antarctic blasts are inherently impossible to forecast beyond a few days. These blasts, which often bring sharp temperature drops, snowfall, and blustery winds to Australia’s alpine regions, are most common between May and August. Their occurrence is influenced by polar jet stream behavior and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), with a negative SAM phase increasing the likelihood of cold fronts sweeping across southeastern Australia. The Southern Hemisphere is marked by a weakening polar vortex caused by stratospheric warming over Antarctica. Conversly, this could lead to more frequent and intense cold outbreaks reaching Australia, particularly in winter. The weakening can allow polar air masses to spread further into the mid-latitudes, impacting weather patterns across southeastern Australia.
While it’s too early to make definitive predictions, the combination of early snow and neutral ENSO conditions bodes well for the 2025 ski season. As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on the mountains, with stakeholders and snow lovers alike hoping for a winter that delivers both in snowfall and in the revitalization of Australia’s alpine tourism industry. The early snowfall and neutral climate indicators have generated cautious optimism among resort operators, who are hopeful for a rebound after several challenging seasons. Skier visits were down almost 1 million in Australia from its peak in 2022, a drop of 34% from peak levels.
Looking at the most recent past neutral ENSO and neutral IOD season, 2004 and 2005, peak snowdepth was above the long-term average at Spencer’s Creek. In 2004, maximum snowdepth reached 150.2 centimeters (59 inches), while 2005, maximum snowdepth peaked at 228.2 centimeters (90 inches). Provided temperatures stay below freezing at night, this could hopefully mean a decent 2025 snow season after two rather average seasons in the Australian Snowy Mountains. While many point to the 2023 and 2024 season as indicators of things to come in a period of climate change, it is important to note that especially in 2023 there were fewer snowfall days than usual due to warm and dry weather from June to September. In 2024, Australian resorts saw a big July storm that brought the majority of snowcover for the season and no subsequent top-ups. Typically August is the best time for snowfall in the Snowy Mountains, but last year saw very little snowfall during this period and instead warm, dry winds that acted like hair dryers, eroding the existing cover in a matter of days.
