Australia’s Ski Resorts Open in Three Weeks — Where’s the Snow?

Australia’s alpine resorts are now just three weeks away from opening day, but while some early-season snow has fallen across the Snowy Mountains, it was too warm to stay and resorts are barren again by mid-May. A cold Antarctic blast delivered up to 7 centimeters (3 inches) of snowfall across parts of the Victorian Alps in early May but none of that survived even for a week. Early May snowfall in Australia is typically more symbolic than operational, typically melting quickly once daytime temperatures rebound.

• Related: Australia’s Ski Season Gets First Taste of Winter as Snow Falls Across Australian Alps

The forecast for the next two weeks are not looking promising for measurable snowfall. Mountainwatch’s Grasshopper noted there is a chance of snow associated with another storm system expected May 19 and 20, while Pete “The Frog” Taylor of Snowatch indicated in his latest 15-day forecast that some dustings may arrive around May 26. Likewise, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecast for May 19 currently shows only a 20% chance of snow above 1,800 meters, with no snow expected at lower elevations around 1,400 or 1,000 meters. The agency has also warned of damaging winds and possible blizzard conditions in alpine areas as vigorous southwesterly winds move across the region behind the cold front.

Most Australian ski resorts are scheduled to open on the King’s Birthday long weekend beginning June 6, but conditions remain highly uncertain less than a month out. Two resorts, however, will definitely be offering skiing and snowboarding on opening day. Mount Buller (VIC) and Thredbo (NSW) have both invested in all-temperature snowmaking technology — often referred to as “ice factories” — capable of producing snow even during marginal temperatures. The systems have already allowed both resorts to begin stockpiling large snow reserves ahead of winter, making opening-day skiing highly likely regardless of natural snowfall.

• Related: Is Early-Season Snow a Harbinger of Good or Bad News? — A Statistical Analysis for Australia

For many of Australia’s other resorts, however, the outlook is less certain. Without a stronger polar cold outbreak arriving before early June, opening weekend could feature grassy terrain and guests will be limited to après-skiing — not that there is anything wrong with that.

Still, in Australia’s notoriously volatile alpine climate, conditions can change quickly. A single well-timed Southern Ocean storm cycle could dramatically improve the outlook before lifts begin spinning in June. So keep doing those snow dances, Australia!