I have been looking at the long range predictions on the European model and I see a pretty interesting pattern developing at the end of October and into the first two week of November. The southern jet (Sub Tropical Jet) gets going and it looks like 2-3 storms will come out of this region.
This pattern change may be just a “November thing” or a sign of the winter ahead, my feeling is the winter ahead will bring more than a few storms out of this area. This means above normal snowfall for AZ, NM, CO ski areas maybe CA too with above normal rainfall on the valley floor of Phoenix, Tucson and over into most of New Mexico. Los Angeles could see rain from the first system as well.
As these storm come out of the Southwest they will either head up into the Midwest or over to the Southeast and East Coast. The track of these storms will vary upon the NAO and AO oscillation. That blocking pattern could make for big Midwest Maulers or Nasty Nor’easters…it’s just too early to call right now.
So we see the moisture but what does this mean for the pattern in the U.S.A come November? It means an active pattern if the Euro model is right and it will come down to the timing of the cold air in the Midwest and East for a chance of snow. The big three factors below will play a major roll in the storm track for the end of October and first half of November so why don’t we take a look where we are today and into the future.
The staff here at liveweatherblogs.com feels confident we’ll see an active pattern for the first half of November but lean on the wet side not white for areas under 5,000 feet elevation from the Southwest to the Northeast. This means the ski areas of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Southern California could see ample snow the first half of November.
Central & Northern California are on the border with the Halloween storm and the the November 5-7 storm could shift north since the projections are so far out right now. We’ll keep ya posted but our call for ample snow in the Rockies this fall is dead on so far with the August ski area outlooks we made and we love it.
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