SnowBrains Forecast: 2-3 Feet for the California Sierra Through Monday

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ECMWF snowfall forecast map
Credit: WeatherBell

California skiing stays active through Monday night as the current storm keeps reloading the Sierra, while Mount Baldy picks up a shorter, lighter shot on Sunday. The best window for fresh turns at the open Sierra resorts runs from late Saturday through Sunday night, when snowfall intensity peaks, snow levels fall fast, and gusty south to southwest winds make exposed terrain rough at times. After that, Tuesday looks quieter and a bit milder before a much weaker midweek disturbance brushes parts of the range, with the late-period outlook still leaning somewhat unsettled but too uncertain for precise snow calls.

The ongoing Sierra storm continues to build Saturday afternoon, then delivers its main push Saturday night into Sunday morning. Guidance is well clustered on timing, core intensity, falling snow levels, and the strongest wind impacts through Monday night, so confidence is strongest from Saturday afternoon through Monday night. Snow levels briefly hover near 6,500-7,500 feet this afternoon, then crash to roughly 4,000-5,500 feet overnight and Sunday, which should turn nearly all Sierra precipitation to snow. Snow quality improves as colder air arrives: expect denser 7-10:1 snow early, then more moderate to occasionally lighter 10-16:1 snow by Sunday. Exposed terrain stays windy, with gusts commonly 40-55 mph and closer to 70 mph around the Mount Rose crest.

Sunday is the deepest part of the storm for most open Sierra terrain, with snowfall rates pulsing hardest overnight into the morning before tapering to colder showers Sunday night and Monday. The heaviest totals are favored along the central and southern Sierra crest, while the northeast Tahoe side looks lighter and more wind-affected. Among the open areas, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Mammoth, and Mt. Rose should all ski better once the strongest wind starts easing later Sunday and Monday. Mammoth should turn out a colder, drier finish as snow levels fall toward 4,000-5,000 feet there, while closed Mount Baldy gets a narrower Sunday morning to afternoon burst with snow levels mostly 5,500-6,500 feet and wetter 5-10:1 snow. Baldy also faces gusts near 45 mph, so even modest accumulations should come with raw conditions while precipitation lasts.

Tuesday trends drier with lighter winds and a modest warm-up, which should help reset conditions after the storm cycle. After that, the guidance diverges quickly. A weak Wednesday night into Thursday disturbance may brush parts of the Sierra with a minor refresh, probably only a few inches where it lands, and another round of breeze, but coverage and intensity vary enough that it looks more like a low-end touch-up than a meaningful storm. Beyond Friday, the broader pattern still hints at more Pacific energy around California, especially for Northern California, yet the late-week and next-week details remain too inconsistent to promise more than periodic precipitation chances and conservative snow expectations for now.

Resort Forecast Totals (Sat Apr 11 – Tue Apr 14)

  • Kirkwood25-32 inches
  • Bear Valley22-29 inches
  • Sugar Bowl22-28 inches
  • Dodge Ridge21-27 inches
  • Palisades Tahoe20-26 inches
  • Mammoth16-21 inches
  • Northstar11-14 inches
  • Heavenly9-11 inches
  • Mt. Rose8-10 inches
  • Diamond Peak8-10 inches
  • Mount Baldy3-5 inches

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