Brains
While much-needed February snowstorms finally nourished ski areas across the American West with resorts in California and Utah reporting several feet of snow in an expanse of a few days, Colorado’s snowpack continues to suffer.
As of February 25, Colorado’s snowpack sits at 63% of average and skiers have spent the majority of the season dodging dirt patches, grass, roots and rocks. While storms promised to provide a blanket over the obstacle-riddled terrain, a February 25 storm delivered rain rather than snow even to base areas in the Central Rocky Mountains sitting well above 9,000 feet. The precipitation eventually froze enough for a few inches of uncharacteristically wet white stuff on February 26, but unseasonably spring-like temperatures continue across the state and experts say catching up to anything close to normal this winter is pretty much out of the question.
“To get back to average snowpack, we essentially need to have the most snow that we’ve ever had for the last 30 years between now and mid-April,” said OpenSnow Founding Meteorologist and CEO, Joel Gratz.
To further quantify what would have to happen for Colorado to catch up to anything close to average snowpack, fellow OpenSnow Meteorologist Sam Collentine explained that the state would have to experience a level of March storms that only happens every 100 years. “It would be extremely difficult for Colorado to get back to a normal/average snowpack,” Collentine said. “As an example, when looking at the Independence Pass SNOTEL site in central Colorado outside of Aspen, we typically have 13 inches of snow-water-equivalent (SWE) at the end of February. This year, we only have 6.7 inches of SWE. Looking back at the past 30 years, the only year that we gained over 7 inches in SWE from February to March was in 2019 during a historic storm cycle. We typically add 2.8 inches of SWE in March, so adding 6 to 7 inches would require another historic, once every 100-year storm cycle.”
Most of Colorado’s snowfall comes from Pacific storms. While the Sierra Nevada Mountains will sometimes yield massive amounts of snowfall at once–for example, the mid-February storm in the Lake Tahoe area that led to the terrible Castle Peak avalanche dumped more than five feet of snow at Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Northstar and also hit Utah resorts like Snowbird and Brighton with three feet–Colorado often gets the shaft.
According to Colorado State University’s Colorado Climate Center, this phenomenon is due to humidity falling out of the airflow as Pacific storms hit one mountain range after another, meaning the ranges that sit upstream from Colorado–the Sierra Nevada’s, the Wasatch and even Wyoming’s Teton range–benefit directly from these storms. “The same cannot be said for most of Colorado, which lies in the shadow of the California, Utah, and Wyoming mountains. By the time moist air from the Pacific arrives in Colorado, it has already lost a fair amount of its initial water vapor because it precipitated over the upstream ranges,” the Colorado Climate Center reported.
Although general lack of precipitation has caused lower than average snowpack at ski areas across the western United States, Colorado’s snow drought is partly due to Pacific storms petering out before they reach the Rockies. “Most of the significant snowfall (or lack thereof) in the Western United States so far this season has been focused on areas north and west of Colorado, primarily due to the storm track. With the exception of southern Colorado, as moisture moves further inland, it has to pass over mountains in California and Utah before reaching Colorado. This is why moisture is typically our No. 1 limiting factor for northern and central Colorado,” Collentine said.
Colorado’s southern mountains often get hit with much bigger snow totals than elsewhere in the state. The mid-February storm dropped about a foot of snow on Vail and Beaver Creek, but nearly 30 inches in Crested Butte and close to six feet at Wolf Creek ski area in the San Juan Mountains.
Geographic positioning is to thank for this, according to The Colorado Climate Center, because of curved airflow patterns from West Coast storms that allow them to hit the San Juans without being weakened by other mountain ranges. Still, even Wolf Creek, which boasts a higher average snowfall than any other ski area in Colorado (430 inches), is, as of February 25, only sitting at 164 inches so far this season.
Experiencing rain in February at 10,000 feet feels to Colorado skiers distinctly like malfunctioning seasons, but at least high elevation protects Colorado resorts from this being a regular occurrence. “Climate change will continue to impact Colorado as temperatures rise. This will likely lead to more rain events near and below 10,000 feet during the heart of the winter along with drier starts and ends to the season that will lead to increasingly fast runoff in the spring months. There are no long-term trends – yet – for decreasing precipitation above 10,000 feet, so most Colorado ski resorts can thank our high-elevation for climate change protection,” Collentine said.
Considering the dearth of snow this winter, and no good odds of getting close to average before ski season wraps up, Collentine’s personal experiences on Colorado’s slopes have been surprisingly positive this season. “Even though our snowpack is historical low, I have found the ski conditions to be in pretty good shape,” he said. “Powder days have been few and far between, though the groomers, especially on the north-facing terrain, have stayed in excellent shape, albeit with limited coverage.”
Still, if you’re skiing or riding in Colorado this March, bringing your rock boards is not a bad idea.
