Consistent Warm & Dry Conditions To Plague California For At Least A Few More Weeks

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Storm track is north of California. Image: NOAA Sacramento, CA

Well, this isn’t what we want to see. The National Weather Service is calling for persistent warm temperatures and below average precipitation throughout the next few weeks. This will result in continued drought-like conditions in California. The state’s snowpack is at 24% of average and with this trend in place, it looks like that will only decrease.

* Spring like conditions will continue this week. 
    Cooler conditions and perhaps a few rain and snow showers 
    are possible for the weekend and early next week.
- NOAA Reno, NV
7 day snowfall totals are minimal for CA. Image: Tropical Tidbits
7 day precipitation totals. Image: NOAA

The precipitation forecast for the next 7 days in California is basically non-existent, let alone the snow forecast. 

Additional Info On Current Conditions:

What a difference a year makes. Image: NOAA Hanford, CA
Precipitation percent of normal. Image: NOAA Sacramento, CA
This week’s outlook. Image: NOAA Sacramento, CA
Record breaking temperatures on tap. Image: NOAA Sacramento, CA
Very warm start to February. Image: NOAA Sacramento, CA
Precipitation lull. Image: NOAA Reno, NV
High temperatures are stuck in the area. Image: ClimateReanalyzer.org

Extended Outlook:

8-14 day temperature outlook. Image: NOAA
8-14 day precipitation outlook. Image: NOAA

Greater-Tahoe Area Forecast Discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
131 AM PST Tue Feb 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Spring like conditions will continue this week. Cooler conditions
and perhaps a few rain and snow showers are possible for the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

An upper level ridge will shift closer to the West Coast by the
start of the weekend which will continue our dry and mild weather.
Breezy northerly winds across the ridgetops will subside by the
afternoon with overall light breezes expected for valley locations
over the next few days. High temperatures more typical of early
April will continue with highs reaching the low to mid 60s across
western Nevada and mid to upper 50s for Sierra valleys. Fuentes


.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

The extended forecast is becoming more muddled even as we get closer
to the start of the day 4-7 period. So...we have opted to make only
small changes to the inherited forecast as opposed to biting off on
any one particular model solution.

The ECMWF remains the most consistent run-to-run deterministic
model...but even it is now having some consistency issues. Meanwhile
the GFS continues to veer back and forth in its solutions.

The ECMWF keeps the bulk of the extended period dry with some
cooling for the Saturday/Sunday time frame. It drops an elongated
trough of low pressure south before briefly developing a closed low
over southern California Sunday. This leads to cooling for our
area...but the feature is moisture starved...so no precipitation.

On the other hand...the GFS is trying to develop a deep...cold...and
relatively wet closed low over the region Saturday and Saturday
night. This solution would see high temperatures Saturday and Sunday
below normal and some 15-20 degrees cooler than Friday. This
solution does have a small amount of support in the GEFS ensemble
suite...but the ECMWF solution has more support. Given the GFS
solution is such a big change...and the trend recently has been to
remain dry even if models are trying to show precipitation out in
time...we will maintain a dry forecast and trend toward the ECMWF
temperatures. These are a little cooler...but nothing like the GFS.

Earlier the GFS was trying to drop another low south on Monday. That
has now evaporated...but the ECMWF does show a trough dropping south
Monday night into Tuesday. While again we will not mention much in
the way of precipitation with this feature...there is an outside
chance that areas near the Oregon border could see snow showers
Monday night. The possibility of a low developing over or south of
the region has more support from the GEFS ensemble members for late
Monday...but most still maintain a ridge to the west.

The main takeaway in the extended is that a ridge to the west will
occasionally allow slider type systems to drop south into the
region. These system can...but most likely will not...carve much
farther west into the Sierra. For the time being the GFS solution
appears too far west and too strong so we will opt not to trend the
forecast that way.

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