Well, this isn’t what we want to see. The National Weather Service is calling for persistent warm temperatures and below average precipitation throughout the next few weeks. This will result in continued drought-like conditions in California. The state’s snowpack is at 24% of average and with this trend in place, it looks like that will only decrease.
* Spring like conditions will continue this week. Cooler conditions and perhaps a few rain and snow showers are possible for the weekend and early next week. - NOAA Reno, NV
The precipitation forecast for the next 7 days in California is basically non-existent, let alone the snow forecast.
Additional Info On Current Conditions:
Greater-Tahoe Area Forecast Discussion:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 131 AM PST Tue Feb 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Spring like conditions will continue this week. Cooler conditions and perhaps a few rain and snow showers are possible for the weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM... An upper level ridge will shift closer to the West Coast by the start of the weekend which will continue our dry and mild weather. Breezy northerly winds across the ridgetops will subside by the afternoon with overall light breezes expected for valley locations over the next few days. High temperatures more typical of early April will continue with highs reaching the low to mid 60s across western Nevada and mid to upper 50s for Sierra valleys. Fuentes .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday... The extended forecast is becoming more muddled even as we get closer to the start of the day 4-7 period. So...we have opted to make only small changes to the inherited forecast as opposed to biting off on any one particular model solution. The ECMWF remains the most consistent run-to-run deterministic model...but even it is now having some consistency issues. Meanwhile the GFS continues to veer back and forth in its solutions. The ECMWF keeps the bulk of the extended period dry with some cooling for the Saturday/Sunday time frame. It drops an elongated trough of low pressure south before briefly developing a closed low over southern California Sunday. This leads to cooling for our area...but the feature is moisture starved...so no precipitation. On the other hand...the GFS is trying to develop a deep...cold...and relatively wet closed low over the region Saturday and Saturday night. This solution would see high temperatures Saturday and Sunday below normal and some 15-20 degrees cooler than Friday. This solution does have a small amount of support in the GEFS ensemble suite...but the ECMWF solution has more support. Given the GFS solution is such a big change...and the trend recently has been to remain dry even if models are trying to show precipitation out in time...we will maintain a dry forecast and trend toward the ECMWF temperatures. These are a little cooler...but nothing like the GFS. Earlier the GFS was trying to drop another low south on Monday. That has now evaporated...but the ECMWF does show a trough dropping south Monday night into Tuesday. While again we will not mention much in the way of precipitation with this feature...there is an outside chance that areas near the Oregon border could see snow showers Monday night. The possibility of a low developing over or south of the region has more support from the GEFS ensemble members for late Monday...but most still maintain a ridge to the west. The main takeaway in the extended is that a ridge to the west will occasionally allow slider type systems to drop south into the region. These system can...but most likely will not...carve much farther west into the Sierra. For the time being the GFS solution appears too far west and too strong so we will opt not to trend the forecast that way.