“Deep Pacific Moisture” Headed to California This Weekend

WeatherBrains | | WeatherWeather
image: noaa, today
image: noaa, today

NOAA is currently discussing the possibility of a big, wet, nasty storm in California this weekend.

“Deep Pacific Moisture” is forecast to hit California beginning Friday night.  Snow levels will be high at somewhere between 7,500 & 9,000 feet before dropping to around 5,000 feet on Saturday.

NOAA is estimating around 3″ of liquid precipitation for the Sierra Crest which would translate to around 3 feet of snow.  Snow levels will be high, mind you, during the bulk of the precipitation.  NOAA is also saying there is a 10-20% chance there could be 6″ of liquid precip for the Sierra Crest – that would be 6 feet of snow on the crest…

That said, more lines in the Chimney at Squaw will open up and Granite Chief Peak will become a freeride playground…  The news isn’t as good for lower mountain areas in California, but hey, whattayagonnado?  California will take the precip any way we can get it right now!

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image: noaa, sunday

NOAA FORECAST DISCUSSION:

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS STILL SHOW A PRETTY GOOD SIERRA STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THEY ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THE FRIDAY TIME PERIOD, BUT
IT REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND EC REMAIN
SOMEWHAT AT ODDS. STILL, THEY ARE CLOSER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE INITIAL BAND OF DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
REACH THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH STRONG 700 MB WINDS ALOFT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TO START,
POSSIBLY 7500-9000 FEET NORTH TO SOUTH THEN GRADUALLY FALL ABOUT
1500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. IT APPEARS MOST RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO AREAS NEAR THE CREST WITH ONLY SOME SPILLOVER DUE TO BLOWOVER AT
LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT SAGS, SPILLOVER SHOULD BE A
LITTLE BETTER WITH THE FORCING, AT LEAST INTO EXTREME WESTERN
NEVADA. BEFORE THE SPILLOVER BECOMES MORE APPARENT, GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE EC NOW SHOWS SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
SOUTH, WITH IT BRIEFLY STALLING SATURDAY EVENING AS A WAVE SPINS UP
ON IT. IT THEN PUSHES THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE WAVE BEING MUCH STRONGER WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER PRECIP
SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING HEAVY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH
MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING THE EC IDEA, WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN IN
THAT DIRECTION. STILL, I WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE MORE OF A TREND IN
THE GFS DIRECTION, BUT NOT THE BOMBING OF THE WAVE IT SHOWS. SNOW
LEVELS ON BOTH MODELS ARE DOWN TO 5000 FEET NORTH TO 7000 FEET MONO
COUNTY BY SAT AFTERNOON AND AT ALL VALLEY FLOORS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST ESTIMATE FOR PRECIP (WATER) AMOUNTS ARE 3+ INCHES NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND 1-2 INCHES TO HIGHWAY 395 WITH PERHAPS UP TO 1/2
INCH WESTERN NV. STILL A SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) OF THE GFS SOLUTION
VERIFYING WHERE AMOUNTS WOULD BE DOUBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SNOW LEVEL DROP.
A BREAK IS EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WALLMANN
GFS showing serious moisture headed CA's way today
GFS showing serious moisture headed CA’s way today

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