Weather
Direct Weather Winter Forecast 2025-26 Review
The Direct Weather winter 2025-26 forecast went all in on a split season from November. California and the Southwest were supposed to run mild and dry. The Northwest was supposed to be stormy. The Rockies were supposed to pile up snow. The Midwest and Northeast were supposed to cash in on Arctic blasts, lake effect, and big coastal storms. By mid-April, that forecast looks sharp in some places and badly exposed in others. California and the Northeast matched the broad call. The Cascades and much of the U.S. Rockies did not, because warm storms and early melt kept turning decent storm tracks into bad ski conditions.
- Related: [VIDEO] Direct Weather Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Final Update Predicts Snowiest and Driest Regions
California: A
This was one of Direct Weather’s cleanest hits. He expected a mild, drier winter with below-normal snow chances, and that is essentially the Sierra story. California DWR found no measurable snow at Phillips Station on April 1. Statewide, snowpack was just 18 percent of average, and the survey was tracking as the second-lowest April 1 on record, after a record-hot March and warm late-February rain at high elevations. California still had a couple of real powder windows, especially around the holidays and again in late February, but the season-wide signal was exactly what Direct Weather advertised: leaner snow, faster melt, and a shorter runway into spring.
Pacific Northwest: D
This was the big Western miss. Direct Weather sold a very active, snow-favored Northwest with less warmth the farther north you went. Washington instead hit April 1 with statewide SWE at 52 percent of normal, while Oregon posted its lowest April 1 snowpack on record, worse than 1977 and 2015 in the longer record. Snow level decided the season. Plenty of storms arrived, and too many came warm. Repeated rain events trashed the Cascades, delayed openings, and left Washington in a statewide drought declaration by April. There were bright spots at the far north end, but for most PNW skiers, this forecast missed the season’s defining feature.
Rockies: C-
Direct Weather painted the Rockies too broadly. The map indicated more snow, and the video discussed the region flourishing, especially in the north. That only worked in pieces. The Canadian Rockies had a strong winter, but the core U.S. Rockies never got there. Utah’s own water managers say 2026 brought the state’s lowest snowpack on record and that it peaked three weeks early. Colorado NRCS reported record-low snowpack early in January, and by April 9, statewide SWE was down to 22 percent of the median after a March that averaged roughly 9°F above normal. Idaho and parts of the northern Rockies held up better than Utah and Colorado, but across the ski map from the Wasatch to I-70, Direct Weather was far too bullish.
Midwest: B-
The Midwest call aged better, especially around the Great Lakes. Direct Weather leaned hard on Arctic blasts, lake effect, and a snowy northern tier. That was verified in the snow belts. The Great Lakes regional summary described a winter that swung between sharp cold and thaw, with persistent lake effect in northern Michigan, top-five snowiest winter rankings in some snow belts, and Sault Ste. Marie is logging its second-snowiest winter on record. The lakes also reached 58.3 percent ice cover, the highest since 2019. The broader regional forecast still ran a little too cold and snowy, though. MRCC put the Midwest winter temperature at exactly normal overall, and the season was the seventh-driest since 1895, with February snowfall lacking across large chunks of the region outside the far upper Midwest and lake belts. Good call for Midwest skiers near the lakes. Too aggressive for the whole map.
Northeast: A-
This was another solid hit. Direct Weather expected colder air, big interior snowfall, and at least one real coastal blizzard threat. NRCC says winter temperatures across the Northeast ran from 6°F below normal to near normal, while snowfall ranged from 18 inches below normal to more than 24 inches above normal, with 27 of 35 major sites finishing above normal. NOAA’s late-February bomb cyclone supplied the signature storm, bringing blizzard conditions from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and giving Providence its biggest snowstorm on record. For skiers in northern New England and interior New York, that forecast held up well. The precipitation side was less accurate because the region was dry overall.
Overall: C+
Direct Weather deserves real credit for California and the Northeast, and the Midwest lake-effect angle had value. The Pacific Northwest miss was large, and the Rockies call was too broad to survive a winter this warm. The lesson is simple. Ski forecasts live or die on snow level and snow preservation as much as storm track. In 2025-26, that is where this outlook lost most of its points.
