El Nino is most likely still on its way to North America in 2014/15 but it may not be as strong as once predicted. NOAA is now favoring this El Nino to be weak-to-moderate.
We are currently in an El Nino Watch, which means that “conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next six months.”
Right now, NOAA is giving El Nino an 80% chance of happening this winter in North America.
When will El Nino happen? Most likely starting in October 2013 and going until April 2014
Below is some very technical speak about where El Nino is right now and what the chances are it will happen in North America this winter. This quote sums up all you really need to know:
The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter. The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter. – NOAA
Probability that El Nino (ENSO) will happen this winter and when. Highest probability in NDJ = November December January.
Detailed El Nino update from NOAA:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Synopsis:The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.
During June 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were most prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening evident near the International Date Line (Fig. 1).
Figure 1
This weakening was reflected in a decrease to +0.3oC in the Niño-4 index (Fig. 2).
Figure 2
The Niño-3.4 index remained around +0.5oC throughout the month, while the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices are +1.0oC or greater. Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) have decreased substantially since late March 2014 and are now near average (Fig. 3).
Figure 3
However, above-average subsurface temperatures remain prevalent near the surface (down to 100m depth) in the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4).
Figure 4
The upper-level and low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average, except for low-level westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Convection was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line and over portions of Indonesia (Fig. 5).
Figure 5
Still, the lack of a clear and consistent atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, no significant change was evident in the model forecasts of ENSO, with the majority of models indicating El Niño onset within June-August and continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6).
Figure 6
The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 1.4oC). The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter (clickCPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 August 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Weather
