Weather
A historic El Niño is strengthening in the equatorial Pacific, and this El Niño winter forecast points to a winter of two distinct halves for U.S. ski country: a mild, storm-starved start followed by a colder, snowier finish, according to the latest video from Direct Weather.
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, the benchmark zone used to classify El Niño strength, sat 2.3 degrees Celsius above average as of early September, up from 1.2 to 1.3 degrees in mid-June and roughly 2 degrees by late July. Readings have bounced up and down over the past six weeks but are trending higher. Forecasters expect the event to reach historic territory, based on a three-month running average rather than daily readings, sometime before mid-to-late October.
The event is forecast to peak around November, then weaken steadily through the winter toward moderate and eventually weak El Niño status by spring. Strong El Niño winters typically drive an overpowering Pacific jet stream across the northern states, which blocks Arctic air and keeps the Northwest, north-central states, and, at times, the Northeast unusually mild. As that jet weakens later in the season, colder air becomes more likely to break through, a pattern several of the five models below independently confirm.
CFS Model: A Mild Start, a Cold Finish
The American CFS model shows a warmer-than-normal West and a slightly warmer East through October, with a more consistent warm signal building into November across the Northwest, north-central states, the Great Lakes, and even New England. The South trends closer to normal or slightly below it in November, reflecting increased cloud cover and storm activity in that region.
December looks notably mild on this model, with above-normal temperatures spreading from the north-central states to the Northeast, the West, and the south-central states. January levels off, though the northern jet stream remains active and a cooler pocket sets up over the South, raising the chance of a deep South winter storm, a setup more common in El Niño winters than La Niña ones.
CFS El Niño Winter Forecast: Temperature Trends
The pattern shifts by February. Colder air pours into the eastern half of the country as the weakening El Niño opens the door for Arctic intrusions, particularly into the north-central states and the Southeast. That colder, stormier setup favors a strong nor’easter track, including rarer snowfall events reaching the Deep South, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Ohio Valley. March looks similar to February as the El Niño continues to fade, before the Southeast’s colder trend continues into April.
CFS Precipitation Outlook for Ski Country
On precipitation, the CFS model shows an active southern storm track beginning in October, with nor’easters ramping up along the East Coast by November and running through the winter. The Southwest turns wet by December and stays that way into February, when East Coast storm activity peaks. By March, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still see coastal systems, and the West remains active, pointing to a potentially strong late-season stretch for Rockies ski areas.
NMME Ensemble: Northwest and North-Central States Lead the Warmth
The NMME, a blended ensemble model, shows the Pacific jet’s warm influence concentrated over the Northwest and north-central states in November, with the South and East trending closer to normal or slightly cooler. That’s a tighter, more targeted warm signal than the CFS shows for the same month.
NMME El Niño Winter Forecast: Regional Signals
By December, the model extends that Pacific jet influence all the way to the East Coast rather than stopping at the Great Lakes, while the Deep South stays notably cool. The cooling trend continues into February and beyond, with the model suggesting February and even March 2027 could run colder than the climatological peak of winter in early January, especially across the central and eastern states and the South.
Precipitation on the NMME follows the same broad strokes as the CFS: an active southern storm track in October, a dominant inland-running nor’easter pattern by November, and both coasts turning highly active through December and January. February and March precipitation patterns look nearly identical to the CFS model’s output.
European Model: Warmest of the Group, Still Trending Colder
The European seasonal model carries a known warm bias and rarely shows below-normal temperatures outside its first forecast month, so its results are most reliable close to the current date. It shows a warm West and, unusually compared to the other models, a warm ridge over the Southeast in October.
By November, the European model falls in line with the rest of the group, showing the Pacific jet across the North and cooler conditions across the Four Corners, south-central states, the Deep South, and Southeast. That pattern holds into December and January. Notably, even this warm-biased model shows increasing cold signals moving into February, with March trending cooler than December and January.
Its precipitation forecast matches the other models closely: an active transition in October, followed by a full nor’easter pattern developing in November that brings above-normal precipitation from Texas to Maine and from California through Texas to Florida and up the East Coast. That pattern continues through the winter.
Canadian Model: The Outlier, and the Coldest
The Canadian climate model shows the coldest October of the five, with a warm West and cold East pattern that essentially repeats, with little variation, from October through March: warmer in the West, colder in the East, every month. That kind of unbroken monthly consistency is unusual and should be treated cautiously, though it lines up directionally with the other models’ cold-East signal.
Its precipitation forecast, by contrast, matches the other four models almost exactly, reinforcing the broader confidence in this winter’s storm track regardless of which temperature model proves most accurate.
Japanese Model: A Cold Eastern Base, Warm West
The Jamstec model, Japan’s climate model, shows the clearest single-season snapshot of the group, presenting December, January, and February together rather than broken out by month. It shows a strong, consistent warm air mass over the West, tied to a positive Pacific-North American pattern, alongside a much colder Southeast, south-central region, and pockets of the lower Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Only the far Northeast and upper Midwest see meaningful winter warmth.
Its precipitation forecast lines up with the other four models: above-average precipitation across the Southwest, south-central states, and up the East Coast.
What the El Niño Winter Forecast Means for Snowpack
All five models agree on the precipitation pattern, even where they diverge on temperature, and that agreement is unusually strong for long-range forecasting. This winter 2026-27 snow forecast points to an active Southwest storm track all season and a nor’easter pattern that ramps up along the East Coast, with the exact timing of that onset still uncertain. Historically, that onset has arrived anywhere from September to December, depending on the year.
Temperature-wise, the setup favors a milder December and January across much of the North and East as the Pacific jet dominates, followed by a colder, stormier February and March as the El Niño weakens and Arctic air becomes more available. For ski areas in the Rockies and across the West, that back-loaded pattern points toward a potentially strong finish to the season, even if the early-winter base-building period runs milder than average.
Month-by-Month Snow Outlook: November Through April
November: The Pacific jet takes hold across the north. All models but the European one show the Northwest and north-central states running mild, with that warmth reaching into the Great Lakes and New England on the CFS model specifically. The South and Southeast trend near to below normal, driven by increased cloud cover and the first nor’easter signals of the season along the East Coast. The Southwest and West Coast start turning active with precipitation.
December: The mildest month of the outlook. CFS and NMME both show broad warmth, with NMME extending the Pacific jet’s influence all the way to the East Coast rather than stopping at the Great Lakes. The Deep South stays cool on every model. Storm-wise, this is when both coasts turn genuinely active: East Coast nor’easters and a wet West Coast, with the Southwest wet on nearly every model and the Northwest wet on about half.
January: The pattern levels off rather than intensifying further. The northern jet stream stays active, but a cooler pocket sets up over the South on the CFS model, raising the odds of a deep South winter storm — a signature more common in El Niño years than La Niña ones. Precipitation stays heavy along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, with the Southwest still active and the Northwest drying out slightly.
February: The turning point. As the weakening El Niño lets more Arctic air through, CFS, NMME, and the European model all show a colder signal building, especially across the north-central states and Southeast. This is flagged as the best window for a strong nor’easter track, including rarer snow reaching the Deep South, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley. East Coast storm activity peaks here, and the Southwest stays very active too.
March: Similar to February, as the El Niño continues to fade. The European and Canadian models both show March running colder than December and January. Storm track slows overall, but the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still see coastal systems, and the West stays active — flagged specifically as a potentially strong late-season window for Rockies ski areas.
April: Only briefly addressed (CFS only): the colder Southeast theme carries into April before the pattern shifts into the broader spring setup, which falls outside this forecast’s scope.
