Weather
Every fall, skiers turn to the same question a first snowfall forecast can answer: when will the flakes finally arrive? According to a new seasonal outlook from Direct Weather, the answer varies widely by region, and this year’s temperature and precipitation trends could push some areas’ first snowfall earlier or later than average.
Direct Weather’s forecast for the 2026-27 winter season maps out average first-snowfall dates across the country, then overlays fall temperature and precipitation trends to project whether each region should expect an earlier or later start than normal. Here’s what mountain and ski-town residents need to know.
First Snowfall Forecast: Fall Start Dates by Mountain Range
September: The Earliest Starters
Some high-elevation areas in Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado typically see their first snowfall as early as September, according to Direct Weather.
Early and Late October
By the first half of October, the snow zone expands to cover more of the Rockies, including additional parts of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Utah, and Colorado.
The second half of October brings the Cascades into play, along with higher elevations in Nevada and expanded coverage across Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and the mountains of New Mexico. Northern Minnesota, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and the Northeast’s high country (the Adirondacks, Vermont’s Green Mountains, New Hampshire’s White Mountains, and interior Maine) also typically see their first snow before November arrives.
Early and Late November
The first half of November draws in nearly all remaining high elevations of the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and Rockies, according to the forecast. The northern Plains from Nebraska northward, the upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) and much of Michigan join the list, along with the Appalachians, upstate New York, and northern Pennsylvania.
During the back half of November, the average first-snowfall zone spreads into more of the Pacific Northwest’s inland elevations, additional Rockies-adjacent areas, the central Plains, more of the Midwest, including northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and northern Indiana, and the rest of the Appalachian range outside the Deep South.
First Snowfall Forecast for December and Beyond
The first half of December typically brings snow to the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, more of Kansas and Missouri, and stretches of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and southern New England, per Direct Weather’s data.
By late December, the outlook extends into the Smoky Mountains, the southern Appalachians, and the mid-Atlantic corridor; Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, Delaware, and southern New Jersey.
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January marks the tail end of the timeline. Because most regions hit their coldest stretch in early January, that’s also when the last areas (the lower mid-Atlantic, the northern Southeast, and the northern reaches of the southern Plains, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas) typically see their first snow.
Areas south of the outlook’s boundary line don’t average a measurable first snowfall in a given year, though some see snowflakes without accumulation, Direct Weather notes.
What Could Shift the Timeline This Year
Direct Weather’s fall outlook points to a few factors that could nudge the calendar in either direction.
In the Northwest and northern Plains, drier-than-normal fall conditions could delay the first snow, while above-average precipitation in the Northeast could help it arrive slightly earlier. Temperature trends matter more, according to the forecast: above-normal fall temperatures in the Northwest may slow things down, while below-normal temperatures across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast could accelerate the timeline in those regions.
For winter itself, the outlook calls for above-average precipitation across the Southwest, south-central and eastern U.S., paired with drier conditions in the northwest and north-central states. Below-normal winter temperatures are expected across the Southwest, south-central, and eastern regions as well, which could move first-snowfall dates up by a week or two in those areas. The Northwest and north-central U.S., by contrast, are expected to see a warmer, drier winter overall, pointing toward a later-than-normal start and reduced snowfall.
