Brains
A climatologist has mapped 45 years of snow records to pin down almost exactly when the first snowfall of the year typically arrives, region by region.
The map, built by climatologist Brian Brettschneider using data from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network, calculates the median date of the first snowfall of the year at every station with at least 20 years of complete snow data since the winter of 1980-81. It builds on a similar approach used by NOAA’s Climate.gov, which separately calculated the date by which any given location has at least a 50% chance of measurable snow on the ground, based on the agency’s 1981-2010 climate normals.
Both data sets point to the same conclusion: latitude and elevation decide who sees snow first.
What the First Snowfall of the Year Map Actually Shows
Brettschneider’s map sorts locations into nine color-coded bands, from “before Sept. 15” to “after Dec. 31.” Northern Canada and Alaska’s interior fall into the earliest bands, with some spots seeing their first snow of the year before mid-September. The Gulf Coast, Deep South and Desert Southwest sit at the other end, and parts of Texas, Florida and Southern California see so few snow events that the data can’t produce a reliable median at all.
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Elevation matters just as much as latitude. High points along the Rockies carry a year-round snow risk, according to Climate.gov’s analysis, while low-lying valleys a few miles away can wait until November or December for their first flakes.
Why Location Decides When Snow Falls First
The Plains and Midwest don’t split cleanly along east-west lines. Early snow pushes farther south through the high Plains than it does across the Midwest at the same latitude. Blame the Rockies. They channel cold Canadian air straight down the Plains, often ahead of the season’s first storms.
The Great Lakes complicate things further. Once the first hard cold front of autumn crosses the still-warm water, it comes out the other side loaded with moisture. That’s lake-effect snow, and it tends to hit Michigan and upstate New York early — weeks before inland spots nearby see a flake.
Year to year, the date is all over the place. In Dodge City, Kansas, NOAA’s records show first snow landing anywhere from mid-September to early January over 65 years — a swing of three and a half months. Boston has strung together several early-snow seasons in its own record, but towns just up the coast in New England haven’t seen the same trend. First snow, it turns out, is a local story more than a regional one.
What This Means for the First Snowfall of the Year in 2026-27
The first snow of the 2026-27 season has already arrived, months ahead of the median. Crystal Mountain, Washington, picked up a dusting across its upper elevations over the weekend, and by Sunday, Aug. 30, Banff Sunshine, Alberta, and Kicking Horse, British Columbia, had both reported fresh accumulation on their higher terrain. None of it is skiable yet, and it won’t be for months. But for three resorts whose regions typically don’t see their first flakes until late September at the earliest, it’s an early sign of how far ahead of schedule this winter could run.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has flagged a strengthening El Niño pattern heading into winter 2026-27, with confidence now above 90%.
El Niño winters typically bring a wetter, more active storm track across the southern U.S. and a drier pattern across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, a split that could push this year’s first snowfall of the year ahead of or behind its historical median, depending on where you live.
Some of the earliest snow of the season has nothing to do with any of that. Levi and Ruka in Finnish Lapland have already confirmed an Oct. 2, 2026, opening, relying on snow farmed and stored from the previous winter rather than waiting on nature.
Colorado’s Yearly Race to Open First
Closer to home, Colorado resorts including Arapahoe Basin, Wolf Creek, and Loveland have battled for the title of first lift-served opening in North America over the past 15 seasons, usually in late October or early November, well after their region’s median date for first snowfall.
The long-term picture is shifting, too. A separate analysis of 50 years of snowfall records found that roughly two-thirds of U.S. weather stations now receive less total snow than they did in the early 1970s, while a little more than a third, many clustered around the Great Lakes, have actually seen totals rise.
For now, the median date for first snowfall remains the best available guide. Skiers and snowboarders watching the forecast this fall can compare their region’s shaded band on the map above with what actually falls and judge for themselves whether winter is arriving early, late or right on schedule.
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hmmmmmmmmmm
Why let us think u are going into tell us the snow report but o lay them do we find out we have to sign up for a pay subscription??? Very misleading &a waste ofany people’s time…not nice
I’m not sure what you’re talking about. The graphic is clearly visible on the page, no subscription is necessary, and it is definitely not behind a paywall.