Weather
Graded: NOAA Winter Forecast 2025-26
The NOAA winter forecast for 2025-26 aged in two very different ways. It saw California’s warm, low-snow season coming. It missed the damage warmth would do in the Pacific Northwest and much of the Rockies, and it never saw the cold, snowy Northeast coming. One caveat matters before handing out grades. NOAA’s outlook covered December through February and forecasted temperature and total precipitation, not snowfall or the full ski season. These grades are about skier usefulness, and this year that distinction mattered because the U.S. just went through its second-warmest winter on record, then its warmest March on record, which shredded western snowpacks right when resorts usually build their spring base.
California: A-
NOAA called for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across California, and that was one of its cleanest wins. The Sierra still caught a few marquee storms around the holidays and again in mid-February, but the season ran warm and inconsistent from the start, then collapsed fast. Palisades finished at 74% of normal snowfall, Kirkwood at 65%, Mammoth at 74%, and Southern California at 43%. The clincher was snow retention. California’s March was its warmest and driest on record, and the April 1 snowpack was just 18% of average, second lowest on record, after warm storms and record heat turned too much of the season’s moisture into rain or early melt. Skiers who read NOAA’s map as a warning on the Sierra got the right message.
Pacific Northwest: D
NOAA leaned cooler and wetter for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Skiers got almost the opposite. Washington and Oregon spent much of the winter fighting high snow lines, rain events, and thin bases. Washington’s April 1 snowpack sat at 53% of the median, with many basins far below normal. Oregon was worse. Drought.gov reported record-low April 1 snow water equivalent, and Bestsnow called it the worst Oregon ski season on record, with Mt. Bachelor’s Summit opening only briefly and the mountain set to close about five weeks early. Mt. Baker and Stevens salvaged decent stretches, especially during the March dump cycle, but the regional call was still a miss because the defining story was warmth, not a cool, wet Cascades winter.
Rockies: C-
NOAA’s map had some value around the southern dryness story, but it never captured how broad the snow drought would become from Idaho and Wyoming through Utah and Colorado. Winter temperatures ran much above average across the West, and drier-than-average conditions dominated Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. Utah finished with its lowest snowpack on record, peaking three weeks early, while Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho all set record-low April 1 snow water equivalent. Resort numbers matched the pain. Grand Targhee and Jackson Hole both landed at 64% of normal snowfall. Alta and Snowbird were at 57%. Breckenridge finished at 44%, Vail 49%, and Bestsnow called northern and central Colorado the worst season ever for that region. NOAA got part of the picture, but skiers needed a much louder red flag across the whole Rockies.
Midwest: B+
This is the region where NOAA deserves real credit. The outlook leaned colder from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and wetter from the Upper Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Regionwide liquid precipitation still finished low, with the Midwest logging its seventh-driest winter on record. Ski country fared better than that headline suggests. The Great Lakes climate summary showed colder-than-normal to near-normal temperatures across much of the region, persistent lake effect in northern Michigan, top-five snowiest conditions in many northern Michigan locations, and strong snow belts in western and northern New York. For skiers at the UP hills, Boyne country, and the western New York hills, NOAA’s colder, snow-friendlier look was useful even if the broad wet signal was too generous.
Northeast: D+
NOAA leaned warm along the East Coast and offered very little that would have pointed skiers toward a banner winter in New England and upstate New York. The actual winter went the other way. The Northeast Regional Climate Center reported winter temperatures from 6°F below normal to near normal, with 27 of 35 major sites finishing with snowfall surpluses. Resort totals back that up. Jay Peak reached about 122% of normal snowfall, Stowe 114%, Whiteface 137%, and Cannon 128%. Liquid precipitation was often near or below normal, so the precipitation side was not a total disaster. The temperature call was the important miss for skiing, because cold air turned ordinary storms into a very good winter across much of the northern Northeast.
Final Grade–How Useful Was the NOAA Winter Forecast 2025-26 for Skiers?: C
NOAA nailed the broad California vibe and gave Midwest skiers a decent heads-up. It missed badly in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast, and it underestimated how punishing the warmth would be across the Rockies. The lesson is familiar. Seasonal outlooks can point skiers in the right direction, especially on temperature. They still struggle with the details that decide real ski seasons, especially storm timing, snow line, and what happens when March turns into a blowtorch.
