Weather
In Gobbler’s Knob, PA, at the crack of dawn on February 2, the nation’s most famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil did see his shadow—meaning six more years of winter, according to longstanding folklore. Although some might argue that winter has never even started…
The annual event has its origin in a German legend that says if a furry rodent casts a shadow on Feb. 2, winter continues. If not, spring comes early – Oregon Live
Phil ‘predicted’ an early spring last year and six more weeks of winter 2025, 2023, 2022, and 2021. According to the NOAA, in 2024, the contiguous United States saw above-average temperatures in February and March. Phil was spot on in his forecast.
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According to records dating back to 1887, Phil has now predicted winter 109 times. According to the NOAA Phil has been correct about 30% of the time in the last 10 years.
In 2023, when he saw his shadow, Phil forecasted a “long winter” and predicted an additional six weeks of wintry temperatures. In fact, the contiguous United States saw one of its snowiest winters on record across much of the western United States last year, with snow falling well into the springtime, so Phil was pretty spot on.
OK, so in the last 10 years Phil has been wrong 70% and right 30%…!
seems if they simply switched the “shadow” rule, then Phil might gain significant credibility…?
in the meantime, just flip a coin (50% odds)…?