La Nina watch is on.Ā
La Nina Watch, Update: October 12, 2017
“The atmosphere over the tropical Pacific was La NiƱa-like in September, but theĀ required coolingĀ of the ocean surface was interrupted in the second half of the month. However, theĀ deeper watersĀ in theĀ east cooled further, and forecasters say the odds of at least a weak La NiƱa by late fall or winter are 55-65%. The next update will be on November 9.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Ā shows us precipitation during every La Nina pattern through the last 67 years.Ā
“Precipitation patterns during every La NiƱa winter since 1950
WhenĀ La NiƱaĀ develops across the tropical central/eastern Pacific Ocean, it can affect areas thousands of miles away, including the United States. The effects are usually strongest in Northern Hemisphere winter. However, no two La NiƱa winters will have identical precipitation patterns.
This series of maps shows precipitation patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonāDecember through Februaryāsince 1950 that coincided with La NiƱa conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The years are ranked by how far below average the temperatures were inĀ the central/eastern tropical Pacific:Ā strongĀ (at least -1.5Ā° Celsius colder than average),Ā moderateĀ (between -1Ā° and -1.5Ā°C), andĀ weakĀ (between -0.5Ā° and -1Ā°C colder than average.
In general, the stronger the La NiƱa, the more reliable the impacts on the United States. TheĀ typical U.S. impactsĀ are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest/northern California.
However, as is evident in these maps,Ā there is a great deal of variability even among strong La NiƱa events.Ā And some impacts are more reliable than others. For example, 9Ā of the 11 strong and moderate events show wetter-than-averageĀ conditions in the Pacific Northwestāthough the intensity of the anomaly variesāwhich is most winters, but not all.Ā AndĀ Ā 6 of the 11 events producedĀ wet conditions in the Ohio Valley, which is slightly more than half, but far from a guarantee.
This āfailureā of the typical pattern occurs because La NiƱa is never theĀ onlyĀ thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how a winter turns out.
For the latest United States winter forecast for temperature and precipitation, head to NOAAāsĀ Climate Prediction Center.Ā Or stay tuned toĀ Climate.govās ENSO blogĀ later this month for a post describing the winter forecast. For the latestĀ monthly temperature outlook, check out Climate.gov’sĀ Data Snapshots map gallery.” – NOAA