After the Worst Winter on Record, NOAA’s May 2026 Outlook Brings More Pain for the West

Spring is tightening its grip on the mountains. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its May 2026 mountain weather outlook on April 16, and for most of the western United States, the message is straightforward: expect warmer and drier-than-normal conditions.

• Related: La Niña Fades as NOAA Expects El Niño by Summer With Significant Impact on Winter 2026-27

Here is a region-by-region breakdown of what forecasters are calling for.

May 2026 Mountain Weather Outlook

Temperature

Pacific Northwest: Cascades

The strongest warm signal in the entire country sits squarely over Washington and Oregon. NOAA is forecasting a 60 to 70 percent probability of above-normal temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, with the very highest probabilities concentrated in the Cascades corridor. That is the darkest shade of orange on the map, indicating strong agreement across multiple modeling systems. For any Cascades ski areas still operating — or hoping to extend operations into May — this outlook is not encouraging. The North Cascades, Mount Rainier, and the Oregon volcanoes are all in the bullseye.

Northern Rockies: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming

Above-normal temperatures are also favored across the Northern Rockies, with probabilities generally in the 40-50 percent range. That is a meaningful lean toward warmth for areas like Big Sky country, the Tetons, and the mountains of central Idaho. Snowpack melt will accelerate through May if this outlook verifies.

Central and Southern Rockies: Colorado, Utah, New Mexico

The same above-normal temperature signal extends southward through Colorado and Utah. Probabilities are in the 40-50 percent range. While most resorts in this zone will be closed or winding down by mid-May, the lingering high-elevation snowpack that backcountry skiers and summer water supplies depend on will face additional pressure from the warmth.

Sierra Nevada: California

California sits in a lighter shade of above-normal on the temperature map, with a 33-40 percent probability of a warmer-than-normal May. That is a softer signal than the Northwest, but still a lean toward above-average warmth. Mammoth Mountain, which often skis into July, will be watching the snowpack closely.

Midwest, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic: Appalachians

No mountain region in the eastern United States gets a decisive temperature call this month. NOAA is forecasting equal chances of below, near, or above-normal temperatures across this broad swath of the country, which includes the Appalachians, the Adirondacks, and the White Mountains. The culprit is a weather pattern driven by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a large-scale tropical wave currently over the West Pacific. Forecasters expect it may drive a cooler-than-normal pattern into the eastern U.S. in early May before potentially reversing later in the month. The uncertainty is too high to call a winner.

Precipitation

Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin: Cascades, Northern Rockies

This is the most significant precipitation story for mountain communities. NOAA is calling for below-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and extending into parts of the Northern Great Basin and northern Idaho. A drier-than-normal May compounds the already-warm temperature outlook for the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Less late-season snowfall, faster snowmelt, and reduced streamflow into early summer are the likely consequences. For wildfire risk heading into summer, this combination of heat and dryness in the Northwest is worth watching.

Central and Southern Rockies, Sierra Nevada

Most of the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada fall into the “equal chances” zone on the precipitation map, meaning there is no strong model signal for either a wetter or drier-than-normal May. This is actually relatively neutral news for these ranges. Snowpack will still melt faster than normal given the temperature signal, but there is at least no additional dry thumb on the scale for most of Colorado, Utah, and California.

South-Central Mountains: New Mexico, Texas Hill Country

The clearest wet signal in the country sits over central and eastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, and Louisiana. This region has already received heavy precipitation in recent weeks, and models favor continued wet conditions into May. For the Guadalupe Mountains and other modest ranges in this zone, it will be a notably soggy spring.

Eastern Mountains: Appalachians, Adirondacks, White Mountains

As with the temperature picture for the East, precipitation falls into the equal-chances territory across most of the Appalachian chain and the Northeast. No strong wet or dry signal is forecast. NOAA notes that the predictability of rainfall in the central and eastern United States is inherently low at the monthly scale, as reflected in the widespread equal chances across the precipitation map.

The Big Picture

May 2026 is shaping up as a hot, dry month across the western mountains, particularly the Cascades and Northern Rockies, with a more uncertain but potentially cooler start to the month in the East. For backcountry skiers and ski patrol crews managing late-season operations, the combination of above-normal warmth and below-normal precipitation in the Northwest is the headline. For the Rockies and Sierra, warmth is the main concern even without a decisive dry signal.

One broader context note from NOAA: ENSO-neutral conditions are currently in place, but El Niño is expected to emerge during May, June, and July. That developing pattern will likely have an increasing influence on summer and early fall conditions in the mountains.

Full discussion:

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2026 
 
The May 2026 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based on the: North 
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and International Multi-Model Ensemble 
(IMME), consolidation (combination of statistical and dynamical model tools), 
soil moisture influence and its constructed analog, and decadal trends . The 
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) strengthened during early April and dynamical 
models have remained consistent since last week that a robust MJO propagates 
eastward from the West Pacific to the Indian Ocean during the latter half of 
April. This MJO evolution and its potential influence on the mid-latitude 
circulation pattern was considered in the temperature outlook. ENSO-neutral 
conditions are present with El Nino likely to emerge during May-June-July. 
 
The NMME and IMME support an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for 
the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS), much of the Great Plains, and Southeast. 
The largest above-normal temperature probabilities (greater than 50%) are 
forecast for the Pacific Northwest where the calibrated NMME and IMME have the 
strongest warm signal and there is also support from the statistical tools. In 
addition, the larger probabilities are consistent with the expectation for a 
drier-than-normal May. Recent heavy precipitation has moistened topsoil from 
eastern Oklahoma southward into central Texas. The GEFS and ECENS favor a 
continuation of the wet pattern for these areas with an expansion eastward into 
the Lower Mississippi Valley by the end of April. Due to the likelihood that 
topsoil is neutral to wet heading into May and tools favor above-normal 
precipitation for the month, above-normal temperature probabilities from the 
dynamical models are reduced across much of the south-central CONUS. Farther to 
the east, drier topsoil and the consolidation tool lead to an increased chance 
of above-normal temperatures for the Southeast. The current West Pacific MJO 
(phase 7) would favor an amplified 500-hPa trough developing over the eastern 
CONUS by the end of April which may result in a relatively cool start to May 
for the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. However, if the MJO propagates 
back to the Indian Ocean, then above-normal temperatures could return to these 
areas later in May. Due to this expected variable temperature pattern during 
the month and a weaker warm signal among the dynamical models , equal chances 
(EC) of below, near, or above-normal temperatures are forecast from the Middle 
and Upper Mississippi Valley east to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Elevated 
above-normal temperature probabilities are forecast for eastern Alaska. 
However, the outlook hedged colder across southwestern Alaska with EC forecast 
due to the Week 3-4 GEFS and ECENS favoring near to below normal early in the 
month. Large negative SST anomalies led to the outlook leaning slightly on the 
colder side along coastal southwestern Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. 
 
Based on the NMME, IMME, and consolidation, below-normal precipitation is 
favored for parts of southeastern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the Great 
Basin. Conversely, these forecast tools support the outlook leaning on the 
wetter side across southwestern Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, central to 
eastern Texas, and most of Louisiana. Many of the dynamical models , especially 
the ECMWF, along with trends  favor a wetter May across the Southeast. However, 
equal chances (EC) of below, near, or above-normal precipitation are forecast 
for this region as the wet model signal was offset by a correlation between dry 
April soil moisture and below-normal precipitation during May. As of mid-April, 
soil moisture is below the 5th percentile throughout the Southeast and will 
likely decline further during the next week with summerlike heat and an 
increasing water demand. A large coverage of EC is also forecast across a 
majority of Alaska and the lower 48 states due to high uncertainty at this time 
lead with a monthly precipitation outlook along with low predictability in 
forecasting anomalous convective precipitation throughout the central and 
eastern CONUS.