Weather
As winter sets in in the northern hemisphere, meteorologists are looking to the vast, snow-covered expanses of Siberia to forecast the upcoming winter in the United States. Judah Cohen, a meteorologist with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, has been pioneering a method that correlates October’s snow cover in Siberia with the severity of winter weather in the central and eastern U.S., reports USA Today.
Cohen’s forecasts have shown a remarkable 75% accuracy rate over the past two decades. The key, he suggests, lies in the reflective nature of Siberia’s snow cover, which sends 70% to 80% of the sun’s heat back into space, influencing large-scale climate patterns and potentially ushering in the infamous polar vortex to the U.S.
The science behind the forecast is complex, involving the interplay of the Arctic Oscillation climate pattern and the behavior of the polar vortex—a swirling mass of cold air above the Arctic. When the vortex stretches, akin to a rubber band, the likelihood of severe winter weather in the U.S. increases significantly. Cohen’s research, funded by the National Science Foundation, stumbled upon this relationship accidentally but has since become a cornerstone of his annual predictions.
While the Western U.S. remains largely unaffected by Siberia’s snow due to geographical barriers, the central and eastern regions could experience colder temperatures and heavier snowfall if Siberia’s October snow cover expands significantly. Cohen’s methodology, which adds a layer of precision to the art of weather forecasting, is set to release this winter’s predictions on his blog in the last week of November.
As the climate continues to change, the importance of such predictive models grows, offering a glimpse into the future of weather patterns and their potential impact on various sectors of society. With Siberia’s snow cover as a guide, Cohen’s work sheds light on the intricate dance between Earth’s surface conditions and the atmospheric forces that shape our seasonal experiences.
