When the women’s Super-G starts tomorrow in Val di Fassa, Italy, one unexpected ski racer will be stepping into the start gate: Mikaela Shiffrin in bib 31. The American superstar has rarely raced Super-G in the past two seasons, but with the overall World Cup title still mathematically open, her decision to start in the discipline strongly suggests a strategic move to defend her lead.
With only slightly more than a handful of races left in the 2025-26 FIS Alpine World Cup season, Shiffrin leads the overall standings with 1,133 points. Close behind is rising German star Emma Aicher with 1,016 points, while Camille Rast sits third with 963 points. Mathematically, even Sofia Goggia in fourth with 824 points still stands a chance of taking the lead.
The dynamic between the four contenders is fascinating:
- Aicher competes in all four disciplines (Downhill, Super-G, Giant Slalom, Slalom)
- Shiffrin is competing in three (Super-G, Giant Slalom, Slalom)
- Rast focuses almost entirely on technical events, meaning she does not collect points in speed races
- Sofia Goggia is the Queen of Speed (Downhill and Super-G) but also competes in Giant Slalom and has stood on the podium in the latter as well.
Unfortunately—or maybe fortunately for spectators—with seven races left in the season, there are too many variables to make a prediction. Let’s suffice to say that this season might stay wide open until the very end—hence Shiffrin’s return to Super-G in order to earn valuable points towards the overall crystal globe. A strong performance by Rast next weekend in the tech disciplines could re-shuffle the field, provided Aicher and Shiffrin falter. Odds, however, are strongly in favor of Shiffrin and Aicher.
- Related: Emma Aicher in a League of her Own: German Star Wins Super-G in Soldeu, Andorra, by Nearly a Second
Shiffrin continues to dominate the discipline that built her legacy—she has claimed 71 of her 108 World Cup victories in this discipline. She currently holds 780 points in Slalom, an enormous lead over Rast, who sits 288 points behind. With only two slalom races remaining, that margin has already secured the Slalom Crystal Globe for the American.
The women’s calendar also features more slalom races than downhill events, which historically works in Shiffrin’s favor. So far this season, Shiffrin has won seven slalom races, continuing a pattern of consistency that keeps her in the overall lead even without racing downhill.
The Super-G start in Val di Fassa is particularly notable because Shiffrin has barely competed in speed events recently. She has not raced downhill this season, a decision tied to the Giant Slalom crash she suffered in Killington in November 2024, which forced her to reconsider her speed schedule after struggling with PTSD. Since her Killington crash, Shiffrin has not won a single Giant Slalom race—a discipline she has previously claimed 22 victories in. She did not compete in speed disciplines in the entire 2024-25 season, but announced for the 2025-26 season that she might compete in some Super-G races. Her last Super-G start came earlier this winter in St. Moritz, where she nearly produced a strong comeback result but missed the penultimate gate. Up until that mistake, Shiffrin had been on pace for a top-10 finish. Shiffrin has won five Super-G World Cup races and has been on the podium a total of 10 times.
The math in itself is relatively straightforward with seven races outstanding:
- 1 Super—G (Val di Fassa, Italy)
- 1 Giant Slalom (Åre, Sweden)
- 1 Slalom (Åre, Sweden)
- World Cup Finals (Downhill, Super-G, Giant Slalom, Slalom at Lillehammer, Norway)
A World Cup victory awards 100 points, meaning the maximum possible gain in a race is 100 points if one athlete wins and the other fails to score. With Shiffrin currently 117 points ahead, Aicher would likely need at least one victory combined with several podium finishes while hoping Shiffrin finishes outside the top positions in multiple races. On the other hand, if Shiffrin continues her typical pattern—podiums in technical events and solid Super-G results—the American could mathematically secure the globe before the final race.
Because Aicher races all four disciplines, she potentially has seven scoring opportunities. Shiffrin, who is skipping downhill, effectively has six realistic chances to score big points. Emma Aicher meanwhile has the demonstrated ability to podium in downhill, Super-G and slalom. Giant Slalom is her weakest discipline. Three podium spots in the three outstanding speed events could earn her between 180-300 points alone, putting immense pressure on Shiffrin.
But this is why Shiffrin’s start in Super-G is strategically important. A 10th-13th place still scores points in the 20s, a 14th-18th still points in the teens. In a tight pursuit, picking up some double digit points could make the difference between securing the overall season title for Shiffrin and falling behind. Starting with bib 31 tomorrow after only one Super-G in three years suggests Shiffrin is willing to take calculated risks. The Super-G course in Val di Fassa will likely be more rutted and bumpy by the time she leaves the gate, but even a top-15 finish could provide valuable points in the overall standings.
One thing is for certain, this season will end on a nail-biter in Lillehammer.
