No El Nino & No La Nina… | What Do ENSO Neutral Conditions Mean for California This Winter?

WeatherBrains |
image: noaa, today
image: noaa, today

NOAA recently canceled its La Nina Watch.

NOAA is currently forecasting an ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Neutral winter (meaning no El Nino nor La Nina).  

Unfortunately, California is more often than not DRY during ENSO  Neutral years.  

Lake Tahoe just had its driest summer on record…

“Odds are becoming more likely that ENSO neutral conditions will prevail this upcoming winter (meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are expected). What does this mean for California?

Unfortunately, there’s no distinct precipitation signal with ENSO neutral conditions. Historically there have been more dry years across California than wet ones, but conversely major floods have occurred during these types of years.

We’ll have to be prepared for any scenario!” – NOAA Sacramento, CA today

image: noaa, august 18th, 2016
image: noaa, august 18th, 2016

NOAA’s latest 2016/17 winter outlook shows most of California seeing “Equal Chances” for above or below average precipitation this winter.

**UPDATED** NOAA’s Official 2016/17 Winter Outlook for the USA:

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