As an Arctic front blasts the USA right now with cold and wind, creating temperatures below -50ºF and 200 million Americans under a winter weather warning, the latest outlook from the NOAA looks much different.
On the plus side, the forecast is for more precipitation than normal, so as long as temperatures stay below freezing, we could still see plenty of snow.
The full discussion is below:
Below normal temperatures continue for western Alaska in week 2, under the predicted trough, while above normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, under southerly onshore flow. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are predicted across the entire CONUS for week 2, influenced by warm Pacific air in the West and a predicted mid-level ridge and southerly surface flow in the East. Probabilities exceed 70 percent over most of the East and exceed 80 percent for a large part of the Midwest and Northeast, under the predicted ridge, representing a dramatic increase in temperatures from cooler temperatures just prior to week 2.
With the trough centered over the Aleutians, surface and mid-level onshore flow continue to lead to likely above-normal precipitation for southern Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. Cyclonic flow ahead of the trough over the North Pacific and warm Pacific air leads to high probabilities for above-normal precipitation across the West, exceeding 60 percent in some areas. A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the south-central CONUS and southerly surface flow enhance probabilities for above-normal precipitation over the East, with probabilities now exceeding 50 percent over a large area from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Well above average, 5 out of 5, due to continued agreement and consistency between models on the circulation pattern and good agreement among the forecast tools.