NOAA April 2022 Outlook: Chances of a Late Season Dump Not Looking Good

The NOAA recently released its outlook for April 2022. If you were hoping for a late-season dump, I’m afraid you’re going to be disappointed.

• Related: NOAA: Spring Outlook: Drought to Expand Amid Warmer Conditions

The majority of the country is going to be warmer and drier than usual, with the exception of the Washington state. If you want fresh snow, head to the PNW.

The full discussion is below:

Elevated probabilities of above-normal monthly mean April temperatures stretch from the southern coast of California to the Northeast. Probabilities of above-normal temperatures exceed 70% over the Southern High Plains where dynamical and statistical model guidance agreed and depicted highest confidence. Elevated probabilities of below normal temperatures are indicated for the Pacific Northwest eastward across parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, consistent with dynamical model guidance from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as well as expected impacts from the active La Niña. Snowpack is lower than average in the Northern Plains, however, dynamical and statistical model guidance conflicted or favored equal chances (EC) of above and below normal temperatures over the region stretching from Northern California through parts of the Northern Plains, and so EC is depicted for these regions. Dynamical model guidance supports elevated probability of above-normal temperatures over the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. However, surface moisture conditions are anomalously wet, thus probabilities of above-normal temperatures are relatively weak (33 to 40 percent). Anomalously warm SST anomalies and decadal trends tilt the odds toward weak probabilities of above-normal temperatures over the Northeast, despite uncertainty in statistical and dynamical model guidance. 

Below normal temperatures are forecast for Southern Alaska including parts of the Aleutians reflecting consistent guidance from NMME and C3S, as well as anomalously cool coastal SSTs and expected impacts from the active La Niña. In contrast, above-normal temperatures are favored over parts of the North Slope region of Alaska given positive decadal temperature trends and enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures depicted by recent Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), NMME, and C3S guidance. 

The April 2022 precipitation outlook considers statistical and dynamical models, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and La Niña impacts. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Southwest, most of the Plains, and Southeast. The highest probabilities of below-normal precipitation (50 to 60 percent) are depicted over New Mexico and parts of western Texas given consistency between NMME and statistical models and is consistent with the forecasted high probability of above-normal temperatures over the region. Below normal precipitation in C3S guidance over southern California and parts of the Southwest tilt the odds toward weak probabilities of below-normal precipitation (33 to 40 percent) where the NMME shows more uncertainty. Dynamical and statistical model guidance are at odds over Florida, where statistical model guidance favors above-normal precipitation owing primarily to decadal trends, while the NMME, C3S, and CFSv2 favor below-normal precipitation. Given model consistency, weak odds of below-normal precipitation (33 to 40 percent) are favored over the Southeast. Forecasts are also mixed over the Great Lakes, though weak probabilities of above-normal precipitation are shown in the NMME and CFSv2, and above-normal precipitation is forecast in most of the models in the C3S. Dynamical model forecasts are supplemented by statistical forecasts based on soil moisture over the Great Lakes, and high anomalous soil moisture conditions in the upper and lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tilt the odds toward above-normal precipitation. Elevated probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecast for the Pacific Northwest stretching northward into the Alaska panhandle, as well as the North Slope of Alaska, consistent with dynamical model guidance and expected La Niña impacts.