Weather
The NOAA has just released its April 2026 forecast. Below is a summary for skiers and riders, followed by the full text discussion.
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TL;DR: The West is in rough shape for April. Warm temperatures and below-normal precipitation are forecast across the Sierra Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, where snowpack was already well below average heading into spring. The Northwest (Washington, Montana, Idaho) is a mixed bag with no strong signal either way. The real surprise is the Northeast, where equal chances of normal temperature and precipitation, plus a possible early-April cold shot, make Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine the best bet for late-season skiing in the country this month.
The Big Picture
The climate backdrop for April is shaped by a fading La Niña. The pattern that’s been suppressing precipitation across much of the West all winter is finally loosening its grip, but unfortunately not quickly enough to save the April snowpack at most western ski destinations. The atmosphere is still behaving like La Niña even as ocean temperatures shift, which means the damage to the western mountains is largely done, and warmer-than-normal temperatures are poised to accelerate melting.
The West: Rough Reading
Sierra Nevada (California & Nevada)
This is where the outlook is most brutal. The Central and Southern Great Basin, which includes the Sierra Nevada’s eastern slopes, carries the highest probability of below-normal precipitation in the entire country, exceeding 60%. Combined with above-normal temperatures forecast across California and the broader Southwest, the Sierra is staring down a tough April.
Snowpack heading into the month was already reported as way below normal, less than 50% of average across much of northern California and Oregon. Once that thin snowpack melts under above-normal temperatures, bare ground heats up quickly, further accelerating the drying cycle. Resorts here are likely looking at an early close or severely compromised spring conditions.
Verdict: Bad. Plan a trip only if your resort has already confirmed season-ending dates.
Cascades (Washington & Oregon)
Washington’s Cascades sit in a zone of equal chances for both temperature and precipitation, meaning forecasters can’t confidently predict whether it’ll be wetter or drier, warmer or cooler than normal.
Oregon’s mountains are more concerning. Much of Oregon falls within the snowpack-depleted zone, and the precipitation outlook leans toward below-normal conditions for areas west of the Continental Divide. The temperature map shows above-normal signals creeping into the interior Pacific Northwest.
Verdict for Washington: Mixed. Watch for storm updates — there’s at least a fighting chance.
Verdict for Oregon: Leaning bad. Snowpack deficits and marginal precipitation signal.
Utah & Colorado Rockies
Here’s a tough pill to swallow for fans of the Wasatch and Colorado’s famed powder. Utah sits at the epicenter of the above-temperature signal, with chances of warmer-than-normal conditions exceeding 60% — among the highest in the Lower 48. The precipitation outlook for areas west of the Continental Divide also leans toward below-normal, with the below-normal precipitation signal extending across much of the Great Basin and into the southern Rockies.
Colorado’s situation is somewhat more nuanced depending on which side of the Divide you’re on, but the broader region is trending warm and dry. Below-normal snowpack was already entrenched across the Four Corners area heading into April. Warm temperatures will accelerate snowmelt at lower- and mid-mountain elevations, potentially squeezing viable ski terrain to the upper mountain only.
Verdict: Ugly. High-elevation terrain may still deliver, but don’t count on powder days.
Montana, Idaho & Wyoming
The northern Rockies land in a more favorable position. Much of this region falls into equal-chances territory for precipitation, and while temperatures still lean above normal across the northern tier, the signal is weaker than it is further south. Snowpack going into April was in better shape here than in the southern Rockies and Sierra.
Montana’s northern ranges and Idaho’s Sun Valley/Sawtooth areas have at least a reasonable shot at decent late-season conditions. Wyoming’s Jackson Hole area sits on the edge. Temperatures lean above normal, but precipitation is less clearly below normal than in Utah or Colorado.
Verdict: Mixed. The best bet in the West for April. Manage expectations, but don’t cancel plans.
The East: The Surprise Story
Northeast (Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine & New York)
The Northeast is the quiet winner of this outlook. The region has equal chances for both temperature and precipitation, which sounds underwhelming, but relative to nearly everywhere else, it’s genuinely encouraging. There’s no strong warm or dry signal to speak of.
The discussion notes that cooler-than-normal temperatures were actually considered for the Great Lakes and Northeast in early April, driven by a potential shift to a negative Arctic Oscillation. If that pattern verifies, it could mean a refreshing cold shot that extends the season at higher-elevation resorts in Vermont and northern New Hampshire.
Coastal sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast are below average, which can support cooler, stormier setups when the right weather patterns arrive.
Verdict: Good. The Northeast mountains could be the MVP for April 2026 skiing.
Mid-Atlantic & Appalachians (Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania)
The Appalachians fall within a zone where above-normal precipitation is favored, stretching from the Ohio Valley through the Upper Mid-Atlantic. That’s a positive signal for late-season snowfall at resorts like Snowshoe in West Virginia and Whitetail in Pennsylvania, if temperatures cooperate. The temperature map shows above-normal temperatures creeping into the Mid-Atlantic, which could mean rain rather than snow at lower elevations.
Higher-elevation Appalachian resorts have the best shot here. Late April is already marginal for these mountains, but the wet signal at least suggests opportunities for natural snowfall.
Verdict: Mixed. Higher terrain could surprise but lower elevations will likely see rain.
The Bottom Line for Skiers
The Sierra Nevada and Utah Wasatch are the ones to avoid, with well-above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation making for a bleak outlook. Colorado’s Rockies aren’t far behind, leaning above-normal on temperature with a below-to-equal chances precipitation signal. Oregon’s Cascades are similarly poor, while Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana’s northern Rockies are in mixed territory. Temperatures lean warm, but there’s no strong dry signal, making them the West’s best remaining options. Washington’s Cascades sit in equal chances across the board, offering at least some hope. On the other side of the country, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine stand out as the clear best bet, with equal chances for both temperature and precipitation. The West Virginia and Appalachian resorts are a coin flip; an above-normal precipitation signal is encouraging, but warming temperatures mean rain is a real risk at lower elevations.
Final Thought
If you’ve been prioritizing western destinations all season and are planning one last April trip, the forecast suggests it’s worth considering a pivot east. The Northeast has the strongest late-season outlook in the country, and with potential cold snaps in early April, New England resorts may offer the most legitimate spring skiing anywhere in the US this month.
For the West, it’s not entirely a write-off. High-elevation terrain at the best-positioned resorts in Montana and Idaho could still deliver, but go in with realistic expectations and check resort snowpack reports before you book.
April 2026 Forecast Full Text Discussion
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APR 2026 The monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for April 2026 are based on extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance, consideration of ENSO phase, climate drivers (such as sea-surface temperature (SST) and soil moisture anomalies, and snowpack), recent observations and decadal trends . The coupled ocean-atmosphere system is in the process of transitioning from a waning La Nina to ENSO-neutral. Subsurface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are now mostly above-average from the surface to a depth of 150-200 meters, with the exception of residual, anomalously cool SSTs over portions of the east-central Pacific. The weekly Nino 3.4 relative SST anomaly (using the improved RONI classification) is a nominal -0.5 deg C. As is often the cas e, atmospheric changes tend to lag oceanic changes. Atmospheric conditions are still consistent with La Nina, and are expected to play a small role in the April temperature and precipitation outlooks. Atmospheric outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) departures are still negative across Indonesia and much of Australia (corresponding to enhanced tropical rainfall and thunderstorm activity), and are positive (corresponding to suppressed tropical rainfall and thunderstorm activity) in the vicinity of the Date Line. A large area of negative OLR departures is also prominent over and west of the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with recent Kona Low activity with its heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and flooding. Low-level wind anomalies are easterly (i.e. enhanced trades) while upper-level wind anomalies are westerly. CPCs Official ENSO forecast probability bar graph indicates very high (>80 percent) chances of ENSO-neutral during the March-April-May (MAM) and April-May-June (AMJ) seasons, with El Nino predicted (with a 62 percent chance) to be the dominant ENSO phase by June-July-August (JJA). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is largely incoherent, as equatorial Rossby waves have frequently interrupted the eastward propagation of the enhanced convective envelope in the Central Pacific during the last few weeks. There are very significant model differences in the predicted phase and amplitude of the intraseasonal signal during late March and early April, so the MJO was not used in the April outlooks. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently in its positive phase, and GEFS forecasts indicate a gradual transition to its negative phase in late March, which typically favors cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Though support for a negative AO is not overwhelming, anomalously cooler temperatures were considered for the specified regions noted above in early April. Near-coastal SSTs are currently below-average in Bristol Bay off southwestern Mainland Alaska, and just off the coast of the Northeast contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Above-average SSTs were noted off most of California, and the Gulf Coast region. Soil moisture data from CPCs Leaky Bucket model and NASA SPoRT show widespread below-normal soil moisture encompassing much of the southern and central Lower 48 states. Areas of near to above-normal soil moisture were confined largely to the northern tier states. Across a large portion of the mountainous West, snow water equivalent (SWE) and related snowpack was way below-normal (< 50 percent). This area stretched from the lower Four Corners region northwestward to northern California and most of Oregon. The April temperature outlook favors increased chances of above-normal temperatures over the southern, central, and interior northwestern CONUS, covering approximately two-thirds of the Lower 48 states. This is largely supported by the dynamical and final consolidation forecasts (NMME-Con and Final-Con, respectively), the CFS, most of the NMME and IMME/C3S, CAS (Constructed Analog on Soil Moisture tool), and historical trends (OCN tool). This is consistent with widespread drought and below-normal soil moisture currently over the CONUS, and with below-normal snowpack over much of the Interior West. Chances of favored above-normal temperatures exceed 50 percent over the Florida Peninsula (with April climatologically being the height of the dry season), and exceed 60 percent over the vicinity of Utah. In Alaska, the assorted models and tools provide a wide array of solutions, though many showed northwestern Mainland Alaska to be above-normal. Elsewhere, which includes the large remainder of Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest, north-central CONUS, Great Lakes, Northeast, and Upper Mid-Atlantic, Equal Chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures are favored. The April precipitation outlook favors elevated chances of above-normal precipitation over a broad zone that extends from the eastern Plains and most of the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region to the Ohio Valley, western Tennessee, north-central Appalachians, and Upper Mid-Atlantic region. This pattern of anomalous wetness is depicted by a number of models (to various degrees) including the Statistical Consolidation (Stat-Con), NMME-Con, and Final-Con (the latter being a skill-weighted and calibrated mean of the Stat-Con and NMME-Con). The uncalibrated NMME, CFS, CanESM5 (one of two available Canadian models), CAS, uncalibrated IMME/C3S, ECMWF, UKMO (UK Met Office), DWD (German model) and the two NCAR models (NCAR_CESM1 and NCAR_CCSM4) also support reasonable variations on this same general theme. Chances for drier-than-normal conditions are favored across most areas west of the Continental Divide, with maximum probabilities exceeding 60 percent over the Central and Southern Great Basin, based on model guidance and precipitation trends during the last 15 years as shown by the OCN tool. Low snowpack and significantly warmer temperatures predicted in late March over the West will accelerate snowmelt. Once much of the snowpack melts, the bare ground will heat up more quickly, leading to more dryness. Below-normal precipitation is also favored over Florida and southern Georgia, with April typically being the height of the Florida dry season and the greatest risk for wildfires. Even though below-normal precipitation is favored in Florida during April, the April-May-June (AMJ) seasonal precipitation outlook could verify as wetter-than-normal, given the transition to the Florida rainy season in late May or early June. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is slightly favored over western portions of the Mainland, based on calibrated and uncalibrated versions of the C3S, Meteo_France, ECMWF, CFS, UKMO, CMCC (one of two available Canadian models), and the German model (DWD).
