NOAA: Atmospheric River to Impact West Coast Tomorrow | Up to 22″ of Precipitation Forecast

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"Here's a look at the Infrared Satellite image from 2 am this morning (10/12). You can see the tropical moisture from the remnants of Typhoon Songda being ingested in a strong cross-Pacific zonal jet. This moisture and energy will be what brings us the strong storm on Saturday." - NOAA Medford, OR today
“Here’s a look at the Infrared Satellite image from 2 am this morning (10/12). You can see the tropical moisture from the remnants of Typhoon Songda being ingested in a strong cross-Pacific zonal jet. This moisture and energy will be what brings us the strong storm on Saturday.” – NOAA Medford, OR today

The Atmospheric River that NOAA has been forecasting since last Thursday is set to arrive tomorrow.

This Atmospheric River will be bringing copious amounts of rain, high elevation snow, hurricane force winds, and up to 36-foot surf to Washington, Oregon, and California.

Northwest California is forecast to see 22″ of precipitation in the next 7 days.  That’s insane…

Up to 22" of precipitation forecast in NorCal next 7 days! image: noaa, today
Up to 22″ of precipitation forecast in NorCal next 7 days! image: noaa, today

NOAA has issued a Hydrologic Outlook for Oregon and a Special Weather Statement for California (see below).

Mt. Baker WA, Mt. Rainier WA, Mt. Hood OR, Mt. Shasta CA, Mt. Lassen CA, and more are all going to get buried up top.

Bryan Allegretto of OpenSnow.com thinks we’ll see 1-2 feet of snow above snow line in Lake Tahoe, CA.

Heavy snow forecast for Mt. Shasta, CA this week. image: noaa, today
Heavy snow forecast for Mt. Shasta, CA this week. image: noaa, today

HUGE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS NEXT 7-DAYS:

  • 21.8″ for Northwestern California
  • 18.1″ for Olympic Mountains, WA
  • 16.6″ for Southwestern Washington
The Atmospheric River is 4,000 miles long right now. image: PinPoint Weather via Chris Tomer
The Atmospheric River is 4,000 miles long right now. image: PinPoint Weather via Chris Tomer

SNOW LEVELS FORECAST for WEST COAST:

5,500-8,000′ for Washington

The snow level will be high --
around 7000 to 8000 ft [on Thurs]
The snow level will be 5500
to 6000 ft [on Friday]
- NOAA Seattle, WA today

6,000-8,000′ for Oregon

Snow levels look to be above 8kft for the bulk of this precipitation
event, but could dip to near 7kft in heavier bursts of precipitation
and on the tail end of individual frontal systems through Saturday
night. Sunday through Monday snow levels are expected to lower to
near 6kft. 
- NOAA Medford, OR yesterday

8,500′ for California

SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS
STORM...MAINLY 8500 FEET AND ABOVE. THESE WILL BE FALLING SUNDAY
NIGHT TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BY MONDAY MORNING OVER SIERRA PASSES.
- NOAA Reno, NV today
"Be prepared for an impressively stormy period from Thursday through Sunday. The biggest threats will be from flooding rain and about 3 separate rounds of possibly damaging wind. Heaviest rain should occur on Thursday and Saturday. The first round of strong wind is expected Thursday, but the strongest may come Saturday when the revived leftovers of Typhoon Songda make the closest pass to the Pacific Northwest. Along the coast, giant waves and coastal saltwater flooding appear likely, especially this weekend." - NOAA Seattle, WA yeseterday
“Be prepared for an impressively stormy period from Thursday through Sunday. The biggest threats will be from flooding rain and about 3 separate rounds of possibly damaging wind. Heaviest rain should occur on Thursday and Saturday. The first round of strong wind is expected Thursday, but the strongest may come Saturday when the revived leftovers of Typhoon Songda make the closest pass to the Pacific Northwest. Along the coast, giant waves and coastal saltwater flooding appear likely, especially this weekend.” – NOAA Seattle, WA yeseterday

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for CALIFORNIA:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
355 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016

SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO COUNTY-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDARVILLE...EAGLEVILLE...
FORT BIDWELL...PORTOLA...SUSANVILLE...WESTWOOD...SIERRAVILLE...
LOYALTON...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...TRUCKEE...
MARKLEEVILLE...BRIDGEPORT...COLEVILLE...LEE VINING...
MAMMOTH LAKES...HAWTHORNE...YERINGTON...SMITH VALLEY...MINA...
SCHURZ...STATELINE...GLENBROOK...INCLINE VILLAGE...SPARKS...
VERDI...GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY...FERNLEY...FALLON...
LOVELOCK...SILVER SPRINGS...NIXON...IMLAY...EMPIRE...GERLACH


...STRONG EARLY SEASON STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

A TWO PART STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
SIERRA RAINFALL PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WESTERN NEVADA
AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST HIGH WIND EVENT OF
THE SEASON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE SIERRA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR EAST TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR.

DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS COULD MAKE TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. EXPECT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND
TURBULENCE IN ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AND WIND SHEAR
FOR AVIATION. HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE SECURED.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH WEEKEND
WITH THE FIRST WAVE PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE COULD BE SEEN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS
STORM...MAINLY 8500 FEET AND ABOVE. THESE WILL BE FALLING SUNDAY
NIGHT TO 6000 TO 7500 FEET WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BY MONDAY MORNING OVER SIERRA PASSES.

WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
image: NOAA Seattle, WA yeseterday
36-foot waves forecast for WA.  image: NOAA Seattle, WA yeseterday

HYDROLOGOIC OUTLOOK for OREGON:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD, OR

Hydrologic Outlook for significant rises on rivers and streams in
Sisikyou and Modoc counties in California and Coos, Curry, Douglas,
Jackson, Josephine, Klamath and Lake counties in Oregon.

.A series of storms will move through the region beginning Thursday.
A strong jet stream stretching across the Pacific Ocean will bring
a steady stream of moisture into the Pacific Northwest with these
storms. This will result in heavy rainfall across the region. The
heaviest rainfall will be with the storm on Saturday as the remnants
of Typhoon Songda are pulled into the stream. Rainfall amounts of
over 6 inches at the coast and western Siskiyou county,to over
thirteen inches on the extreme southern coast can be expected
through Monday. Three to six inches can be expected inland to the
Cascades with one to two inches east of the Cascades from Thursday
to Monday. These forecast totals across the region are equal to or
higher than the totals normally seen through the entire month of
October.

While main stem rivers will experience significant rises due to
these storms, they are not expected to flood. Small streams and
urban areas could experience high water or even flooding where there
is poor drainage. As this is the first large storm of the rainy
season, there is the potential for debris to clog storm drains,
ditches and culverts resulting in flooding.

Another concern is the heavy rain falling on recent burn scars. If
you live downstream of a recent burn scar, or if you are just
driving through a burn scar, stay alert as there is a high risk of
flash flooding and debris flows in and below burned areas.

The exact scenario for flooding and high water remains uncertain.
This product will be updated as necessary. Watches and warnings may
be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.
image: NOAA Seattle, WA yeseterday
image: NOAA Seattle, WA yeseterday

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