NOAA August 2025 Outlook: Above-Normal Temperatures Forecast Across Much of the U.S.

Yesterday, the NOAA released its monthly outlook for August 2025. Below is a summary for those unfamiliar with meteorological terminology, and the full discussion further down for those who are.

• Related: NOAA Winter 2025-26 Outlook: Long-Lead Seasonal Outlook Gives Sneak Peek of Next Winter

tl;dr: For August 2025, above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the U.S., especially in the Northwest, while the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic face increased chances for above-normal rainfall. Precipitation and temperature forecasts have higher uncertainty elsewhere, with many regions having equal chances for above, near, or below-normal conditions.

Temperature Outlook

Contiguous United States (CONUS):

• Above-normal temperatures are likely for most of the U.S.
• Northwestern U.S.: Highest probabilities (60–70%) for above-normal temperatures due to strong model agreement, positive decade-long trends, and drier soils.
• East Coast: Still a tilt toward above-normal temperatures, but with lower probabilities (40–50%), bolstered by trends in New England and Florida and warm sea surface temperatures.
• Southeast & Mid-Atlantic: Weaker signal (33–40%) for above-normal temperatures due to conflicting trends and a chance of more rainfall possibly moderating temperatures.
• Northern Plains & Upper Mississippi Valley: Slightly increased likelihood (33–40%) for above-normal temperatures, but with greater uncertainty.
• Gulf Coast, Southern/Central Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys: “Equal Chances” (EC) of above, near, or below-normal temperatures, with some potential for cooler periods, influenced by the potential for more rainfall and higher soil moisture.
• Western/Southern West Coast: EC, possibly tilting cooler in southern coastal areas due to cooler ocean temps and coastal influences.
• Alaska:
  • Northern Coast & East: Slight tilt toward above-normal temperatures.
  • Central Alaska: EC due to mixed signals from models.
  • Western Alaska: Near-normal temperatures favored.

Precipitation Outlook

Higher uncertainty and more “Equal Chances” areas across the U.S.

• Northwest Coast to Upper Mississippi Valley: Slight tilt toward below-normal precipitation (33–40%), with pockets (40–50%) where model agreement is better.
• Southeastern U.S. & Mid-Atlantic: Increased chance of above-normal precipitation. Favored by above-normal soil moisture and conditions favorable for storms and unsettled weather.
• Alaska:
  • Western Alaska: Above-normal precipitation is weakly favored.
  • Central Alaska to East Coast: Slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation, where NMME models show modest support.

Full discussion:

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUGUST 2025 
 
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are present with sea 
surface temperatures (SSTs) near average across most of the Equatorial Pacific 
Ocean. Recent forecasts from dynamical models  including GEFSv12 and ECMWF 
indicate the possibility of a robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) emerging 
across the Western Pacific in mid-to late- July. The August 2025 Temperature 
and Precipitation Outlooks are based on a combination of dynamical models , 
including CFSv2, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the Copernicus 
Climate System (C3S), dynamical models  and statistical tools for the Weeks 3-4 
period which cover the early part of August, and potential impacts from the 
emerging MJO. Local SSTs and antecedent soil moisture anomalies also 
contributed to this outlook where applicable. MJO impacts are weighted 
comparatively less as there is still some uncertainty on how the MJO may 
progress into August. Impacts from the MJO will be re-evaluated at the end of 
the month for the updated version of this Outlook. 
 
The August 2025 Temperature Outlook favors above-normal temperatures across 
much of the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The region of highest 
probabilities (reaching 60 to 70%) is located over the northwestern quadrant of 
the CONUS. Probabilities are increased in this region given higher 
probabilities for above-normal temperatures in almost all available tools, 
including the NMME, the C3S, CFSv2, positive decadal temperature trends , and 
below-normal soil moisture. While tools also agree on probabilities for 
above-normal temperature over the East Coast, probabilities are weaker 
respectively. Stronger positive decadal temperature trends  over New England and 
Florida, along with above-normal SSTs, lead to a weak tilt toward above-normal 
(40 to 50%) temperatures. There is less support from trends  over portions of 
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and probabilities for above-normal precipitation 
that may moderate temperatures, thus probabilities are decreased to 33 to 40% 
over the area. Weaker but still increased probabilities (33 to 40%) for 
above-normal temperatures are also indicated over the Northern Plains and Upper 
Mississippi Valley regions. While this above-normal tilt is supported by 
decadal trends  as well as forecast below-normal precipitation, most tools had 
weaker probabilities over this region, leading to comparatively more 
uncertainty. Over Alaska, most tools showed mixed forecasts, particularly over 
the central parts of the state where Equal Chances (EC) of above-, near-, and 
below-normal temperatures are favored. Positive decadal temperature trends , 
CFSv2, and C3S support a weak tilt toward above-normal temperature 
probabilities over the northern coast and eastern parts of Alaska, while 
near-normal probabilities are favored over the West, also supported by C3S. An 
area of EC is located over parts of the Gulf Coast, stretching northward into 
parts of the Southern and Central Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, 
and Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. In addition to lower probabilities in 
most monthly tools, there is a possibility of cooler temperatures over this 
region given the emerging MJO as well as the presence of above-normal soil 
moisture which may work to moderate temperatures and decrease confidence. EC is 
also indicated over southern parts of the West Coast, where cooler than normal 
SSTs and the possibility of seabreezes may lead to cooler temperatures. 
 
There is more uncertainty and disagreement in tools supporting the August 2025 
Precipitation Outlook, thus the Precipitation Outlook has more extensive areas 
of EC. A tilt toward below-normal precipitation is indicated from the Northwest 
Coast to the Upper Mississippi Valley, though probabilities are somewhat low 
(33 to 40%) for much of this region given some inconsistencies in tools. 
Probabilities reach 40 to 50% where there was agreement between the C3S and 
NMME. Tools had better agreement on the chance of above-normal precipitation 
over the southeastern corner of the CONUS and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, which 
is additionally supported by above-normal soil moisture (toward the western 
parts of this region), and chances of storminess and unsettled conditions 
leading to possibility of increased precipitation. Above-normal precipitation 
is also weakly favored over western Alaska, owing to above-normal precipitation 
trend, and stretching across central Alaska to the East Coast, where NMME 
models had a modest tilt toward above-normal precipitation.