“Our current ridge of high pressure looks to weaken slightly later this week allowing for some light precipitation to move through extreme Northern California. Beyond that, a ridge will rebuild pushing storms well north of California.” – noaa, today
After an epic December and January, “El Nada” has replaced El Nino in California this February.
This December and January saw storms and/or atmospheric rivers hitting California nearly every other day.
This February, we’ve seen nada, nothing, zilch. Â
“It will be a warm and dry week ahead with high temperatures well above normal, but 5 to 10 degrees below records. Temperatures listed are for Reno, but other locations will be similar. Does this mean winter is over? No! Periods of warm and dry weather are common even in wet winters. Longer range outlooks indicate a transition back to a wetter pattern the end of February into the start of March.” – noaa, today / image: noaa, today
The current culprit is high pressure that has settled onto the West Coast and is pushing all storms to our north into the PNW and B.C. Â This is very scary for Californians as this is the pattern we’ve been living in during the past 4 years of drought…
What’s worse is that there is nothing in forecast for California for the next 10 days.
What’s even worse is that record high temperatures are forecast today and more this week.
“High Pressure has taken over as the dominant weather feature through California. This does not mean that our El Nino winter is over. As we all know El Nino is not an individual storm system. It is determined by above normal sea surface temperatures along the equatorial east Pacific Ocean. When a strong El Nino occurs, we usually receive above normal precipitation during winter here in Central California. We expect El Nino to weaken as we approach the spring months, and return to a neutral state by the late spring or early summer. In the meantime, we can expect several more days of patchy morning fog giving way to hazy afternoon sunshine.” – noaa, feb 6th / image: noaa, feb. 6th
The good news is that back in 2010/11, during the ferocious La Nina that dropped record snow in Tahoe including 811″ at Squaw Valley, USA, California experienced 6 weeks of no snow at all from Jan. 1st – Feb. 15th.
Other good news is that NOAA thinks the snowpack will hold up fine.
“Don’t worry about the snowpack though! Most of it will still be there when temperatures trend back colder toward the middle/latter half of the month. Warm periods like this one are not that unusual for the Sierra and Great Basin” – Â NOAA Reno, NV on Feb. 6th
Hopefully, we’re just in a bit of a holding pattern before El Nino comes back and unleashes fury on CA!
CA snowpack numbers looking damn good right now!“It’s going to be a warm week ahead! Temperatures in Western Nevada should warm into the low/mid 60s while Sierra Valleys warm into the low/mid 50s. Temperature trends like the one seen here for Reno, will be similar elsewhere. As you can see, we’ll approach record highs, but we should stay below them. Still, we’ll be well above seasonal averages. Streams and area rivers will have a noticeable increase in flow, but we’re not expecting any significant hydrologic concerns. Don’t worry about the snowpack though! Most of it will still be there when temperatures trend back colder toward the middle/latter half of the month. Warm periods like this one are not that unusual for the Sierra and Great Basin.” – noaa, feb 6th / image: noaa, feb 6th“Temperatures will once again climb to near record highs today across the interior of NorCal as strong high pressure remains along the West Coast.” – noaa, today. image: noaa, today“Several high temperature records were broken today. Tomorrow’s record highs could be tied or broken as well!” – noaa, yesterday / image: noaa, yesterday“What a difference a year makes! This year, we have much more snow coverage than last year. The top image shows what little coverage we had towards the beginning of February while the bottom shows this year’s snow coverage. The Tonopah Low really dumped snow across much of the region including areas in South-Central Nevada.” – noaa, feb 5thimage: noaa, todayimage: nws, yesterdayimage: noaa, todayimage: noaa, todayimage: noaa, today
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