NOAA: Early March Outlook Looking GOOD for Snow In All of The Western USA

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Above average preciptitaion is forecast for all of the Western USA ski country from March 5th - 14.  image;  noaa, today
Above average preciptitaion is forecast for all of the Western USA ski country from March 5th – 14. image; noaa, today

NOAA just released a 8-14 outlook that looks damn good for the USA with nearly the entire Western USA forecast to see above average precipitation.

Fingers crossed as February was a total bust in nearly all of North America.  California only saw one storm in all of February.

The only X-factor is that above average temps are also forecast for all of the Western USA ski country in the 8-14 day outlook…

Nooooo  R-Word!!

Above average temps are forecast for all of the Western USA from March 5th - 14th.  image:  noaa, today
Above average temps are forecast for all of the Western USA from March 5th – 14th. image: noaa, today

NOAA LONG RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 26 2016 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 11 2016  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA  
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,  
AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXPECTED 6-10 DAY FLOW PATTERN. THE MOST  
RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS RUN (INITIALIZED AT 12Z) DIFFERS FROM THE VARIOUS  
ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THAT IT FORECASTS A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT IN A TROUGH  
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION. THIS SOLUTION ALSO PREDICTS A NEGATIVE TILT TO A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WHICH  
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. IF  
CORRECT (AND IT IS TODAY'S OUTLIER), ONE OR TWO MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS EVENTS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. 
 
THE TWO MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN (FROM  
THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD) INCLUDE THE PREDICTED EXPANSION OF ENHANCED ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST, AND  
THE TRANSITION FROM FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR  
EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. FOR PRECIPITATION, THE LARGEST CHANGE  
IS THE ANTICIPATED TRANSITION FROM FAVORED BELOW MEDIAN TO ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S  
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, BUT OFFSET BY  
UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN VARIOUS SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

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