NOAA February 2022 Outlook: If You’re Chasing Pow, the PNW is the Place to Be

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February 2022 temperature. Credit: NOAA

The NOAA just released an updated outlook for February 2022. It looks like the Pacific Northwest is the place to be if you like the cold and snow!

The full discussion is below:

The February 2022 temperature outlook favors below-normal temperatures for the south coast of Alaska east of the Alaska Peninsula, southeastern Mainland Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle, supported by dynamical model guidance from the NMME, as well as the consolidation of statistical and dynamical temperature tools. Below-normal temperatures are also favored for parts of Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the northern High Plains, consistent with canonical La Niña impacts. Statistical guidance and the latest CFSv2 dynamical model forecasts suggest the potential for more extensive below-normal temperatures into the Northern Plains and Midwest region, reflecting potential impacts of La Niña. The potential for larger scale below normal temperatures into the Midwest is also associated with the possible reemergence of Western Pacific MJO activity. This pattern of large-scale below-normal temperatures is inconsistent with the consolidated NMME forecast, as well as the consolidation of both statistical and dynamical model guidance, which favor above-normal temperatures for much of the central and eastern CONUS. The February outlook favors above-normal temperatures across much of the southwestern CONUS from Southern California across the Southern and Central Rockies into the Southern and Central Plains, supported by both NMME dynamical model forecasts and the consolidation. Above-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Lower and Central Mississippi Valley, eastern areas of the Midwest, and the Eastern Seaboard, primarily supported by dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. Probabilities of above-normal temperatures are greatest, exceeding 50 percent, from parts of the Southwest along the Rio Grande Valley and Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula, as well as for much of the Northeast, where dynamical model forecasts are consistent. A large area of equal chances of below-, near-, and above-normal temperatures is predicted for much of the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region, where there is inconsistency among temperature tools.

The February outlook favors above-normal precipitation for northwestern Mainland Alaska and below-normal precipitation for the south coast of Mainland Alaska and parts of the northern Alaska Panhandle, supported by dynamical model forecasts and consistent with La Niña impacts. Dynamical models predict above-normal precipitation for parts of the Alaska Panhandle early in the month, resulting in a forecast of equal chances in the February outlook. Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of the Pacific Northwest eastward across the Northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts and canonical La Niña impacts. Above-normal precipitation is also likely from the Central Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward across most of the Great Lakes region, following canonical La Niña patterns and the consolidation of precipitation forecast tools. Below-normal precipitation is likely across the southern tier of the CONUS, including most of the Southwest, parts of the Southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, the southern Atlantic coast, and the Florida Peninsula. The February precipitation outlook generally reflects canonical precipitation patterns due to La Niña. Equal chances of below-, near-, and above-normal precipitation is predicted where there is greater uncertainty among precipitation tools.

February 2022 precipitation. Credit: NOAA

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