NOAA Has HIGH Confidence in a Cold, Snowy Storm Hitting Lake Tahoe Next Week:

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image: noaa, December 27th, 2016
image: noaa, December 27th, 2016

NOAA has high confidence in a cold, snowy storm hitting Lake Tahoe next week.

NOAA is even talking about the possibility of snow down near sea level…  (see image above where it says Central Valley – the Central Valley all right about sea level…)

NOAA is talking about around a foot or more of snow for Tahoe early next week:

"up to a foot of more of snow
in the Sierra and several inches of snow in the valleys of western
Nevada is not out of the question." - NOAA, today

NOAA is expecting:

"cold troughing over the Northwestern U.S. allowing cold Canadian storms 
to drop through the Western States, including the Sierra and western Nevada. 
Forecaster confidence is high that we will see a strong cold front and increased 
chances of widespread snow next week." - NOAA, today

Tahoe is currently sitting on a 61% of average snowpack.  We need this storm to hit hard.

69% of average snowpack in CA right now. 61% of average in Tahoe. image: nrcs, today
69% of average snowpack in CA right now. 61% of average in Tahoe. image: nrcs, today

The GFS and GEM snowfall models both are calling for about 20″ of snowfall in Lake Tahoe in the next 6 days.

NOAA’s 7 day liquid precipitation forecast is showing 1.7″ of precipitation for Lake Tahoe region which would translate to about 17″ of snowfall.

GEM snowfall forecast model showing about 20" of snow in Tahoe next 6 days (144hrs). Arrow and circle showing Tahoe. image: tropicaltidbits.com, today
GEM snowfall forecast model showing about 20″ of snow in Tahoe next 6 days (144hrs). Arrow and circle showing Tahoe. image: tropicaltidbits.com, today
GFS snowfall forecast model showing about 20" of snow in Tahoe next 6 days (144hrs). Arrow and circle showing Tahoe. image: tropicaltidbits.com, today
GFS snowfall forecast model showing about 20″ of snow in Tahoe next 6 days (144hrs). Arrow and circle showing Tahoe. image: tropicaltidbits.com, today
NOAA's 7 day liquid precipitation forecast is showing 1.7" of precipitation for Lake Tahoe region which would translate to about 17" of snowfall.
NOAA’s 7 day liquid precipitation forecast is showing 1.7″ of precipitation for Lake Tahoe region which would translate to about 17″ of snowfall.

The skiing at Squaw on Christmas Eve was off the charts.  2 feet of blower snow.

We’re hoping for a repeat next week…

Miles slashing it out on Xmas Eve, 2016 on Granite. image: dane shannon
Miles slashing it out on Xmas Eve, 2016 on Granite in 2 feet of blower.  image: dane shannon

NOAA’s LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION:

.LONG TERM...New Year`s Day through Wednesday...
"Rex block pattern over the eastern Pacific will continue to persist
into next week, as the ridge part of the block dominates the Gulf of
Alaska. This longwave pattern will favor cold troughing over the
Northwestern U.S. allowing cold Canadian storms to drop through the
Western States, including the Sierra and western Nevada. Forecaster
confidence is high that we will see a strong cold front and
increased chances of widespread snow next week.

A strong shortwave will drop through the Pacific Northwest on New
Year`s Day and into Northern CA/NV by Sunday night. At the same
time, a subtropical jet will be moving into southern CA by Monday,
helping to stall out the trough over our area. Timing and
progression of this trough is tough this far out, but there is
relatively good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF at this time.

This pattern would be very cold for the first several days of the
new year, as cold arctic air moves in from Canada. This will bring
snow levels down to all valley floors by Sunday night, with 700mb
temperatures around -14C to -18C. We have continued to trend
colder temperatures for next week. High temperatures Monday and
Tuesday may not even reach freezing in the valleys of western
Nevada, while highs in the Sierra will only be teens and low 20s.

We`ve continued to steadily increase chances of snow as well.
Cold and very unstable conditions will produce good dendritic snow
growth, high snow ratios, good spillover, potentially even some
lake effect from Tahoe. If these very cold, windy, unstable
conditions combine as the models suggest, we could have widespread
hazardous winter conditions Sunday night through Tuesday, even to
the valley floors of northern and western Nevada.

Snowfall amounts are low confidence right now, as even a subtle
shift in the trough or the subtropical jet to the south could have
a major change in the outcome. But, up to a foot of more of snow
in the Sierra and several inches of snow in the valleys of western
Nevada is not out of the question. Anyone with travel plans in the
Sierra or Northern Nevada Sunday night through Tuesday should
start preparing now for potential snow and winter driving
conditions." - NOAA/Hoon, today

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