NOAA just issued a La Nina Watch for the USA today. Strong La Ninas have been very good for snow in the USA. Fingers crossed that the coming La Nina ends up being a strong one.
The last time we had a Strong La Nina was in 2010/11 and the USA got huge snowfall totals. Check out the list below:
2010/11 Snowfall Totals:
- Alpine Meadows, CA = 852″
- Squaw Valley, CA = 811″
- Mt. Baker, WA = 808″
- Alta, UT = 723″
- Mammoth, CA = 668″
- Mt. Bachelor, OR = 665″
- Whistler, B.C. = 622″
- Jackson Hole, WY = 557″
- Jay Peak, VT = 376″
1998/99 was another Strong La Nina and that is one of the most legendary seasons Squaw Valley, CA has ever had. Scott Gaffney even made a movie about appropriately called “1999“.
El Niño weakens, but his sister might be coming
April 14, 2016 – Weather and climate patterns around the globe will see some changes as the 2015–16 strong El Niño is on the decline and predicted to end by early summer. On its heels, potentially, is La Niña.
In its April update, NOAA forecasters issued a La Niña Watch, meaning that conditions were favorable for La Niña to develop within the next six months. While chances are greater that La Niña could develop by fall, not all El Niños are followed by La Niñas.
La Niña — the opposite of El Niño — is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator. During the winter, typical La Niña effects include drier and warmer-than-average temperatures over the southern United States, and cooler-than-average temperatures in the southern tier of Alaska, Pacific Northwest and across the Midwest.
Both El Niño and La Niña influence Atlantic hurricane formation. El Niño often leads to fewer hurricanes because of stronger wind shear which rips potential hurricanes apart. La Niña tends to reduce that wind shear — potentially meaning more hurricanes. NOAA will issue its 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook May 27.
|EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)|
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
|14 April 2016|
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/La Niña Watch
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were between 1.0° and 1.5°C across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during early April (Fig. 1), having weakened appreciably over the last month. The latest weekly values for all of the Niño indices dropped to below 1.5°C (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific decreased to negative values (Fig. 3) in association with a significant expansion of below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies weakened compared to February. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained negative but weakened, while the traditional SOI was near zero. Enhanced convection continued over the central tropical Pacific but weakened east of the Date Line, and was suppressed over northern Indonesia and the Philippines (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño.
Nearly all models predict further weakening of El Niño, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Then, the chance of La Niña increases during the late summer or early fall. The official forecast is consistent with the model forecasts, also supported by a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year (clickCPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forumof CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 May 2016. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:firstname.lastname@example.org.
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