NOAA January 2026 Outlook: Can the West’s Ski Season be Saved?

The NOAA released its monthly outlook for January 2026 today. Below is a summary for those unfamiliar with meteorological terminology, and the full discussion further down for those who are.

TL;DR – January 2026 favors a classic weak La Niña setup: colder, stormier conditions and better snow odds for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and western Alaska, with more warmth and dryness across the Southwest, southern Rockies, southern Plains, Southeast, and southern Appalachians. The central Rockies, much of California, the Northwest coast, and New England sit in a higher-uncertainty “wild card” zone where small shifts in the storm track could swing snowfall either way.

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Can the West’s season be saved? For January, the pattern still looks like a weak La Niña, which means the northern half of the western U.S. has the best chance of salvaging a slow start, while the southern half faces a steeper uphill battle. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies (Cascades, Idaho ranges, northwest Montana, and Wyoming) lean wetter than normal with at least seasonable temperatures, a classic setup for rebuilding snowpack if the storm track locks in for a few solid cycles. Farther south in the Sierra Nevada, Tetons, Wasatch, and much of Colorado, the outlook is essentially a toss‑up on both temperatures and precipitation, so the season can still be rescued there, but only if a few key January storm windows happen to focus on these mountains rather than staying farther north. The toughest recovery prospects are in the Southwest and southern Rockies, including New Mexico and Arizona, where the odds favor warmer, drier than normal conditions, meaning resorts will likely need well‑timed colder troughs to break the pattern; without those, it is harder to erase the early deficit.

January 2026 Outlook

For January 2026, a weak La Niña pattern favors colder, stormier conditions in northern and northwestern ski regions, with warmer, generally drier weather across much of the southern U.S. mountains. Equal-chance zones in parts of the West, central U.S., and New England indicate higher-than-usual uncertainty so storm-track swings could make or break local snow totals.

Temperature

For the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies (Washington Cascades, Oregon Cascades, Idaho, and northwest Montana ranges), odds lean a bit cooler than normal from the Northern Rockies into the Upper Mississippi Valley, but much of the immediate Northwest and northern California sits in an “equal chances” band, meaning no strong tilt toward colder or warmer than average. If the jet stream dips south at times, these zones could still see classic La Niña cold shots and good snow, but guidance is mixed enough that forecasters did not commit to a clear cold signal west of the Continental Divide.

Across the Tetons, Wasatch, Colorado Rockies, and interior Southwest ranges, the temperature outlook is essentially neutral, with equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures from much of Utah and Colorado into the central Plains. That reflects the potential for both mild spells and occasional Arctic intrusions pushing south, a hallmark risk in weak La Niña winters, so ski areas here should expect a variable month rather than a locked-in pattern.

For the Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, and southern Appalachians, there is a strong tilt toward warmer-than-normal conditions, with probabilities of 50–60% for above-normal temperatures across southern New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast. This warmer signal stretches into parts of the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, suggesting more rain–snow line issues at lower elevations and a greater premium on higher, colder terrain for reliable snow.

In Alaska, much of the mainland and all of Southeast Alaska are expected to be colder than normal, with the highest odds (around 50–60%) in Southeast and adjacent mainland areas. Western and northern coastal Alaska fall into an equal-chances category, as early-to mid-January guidance leans slightly cold but is complicated by sea ice and longer-term warming trends.

Precipitation

Above-normal precipitation is favored across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, including the Washington and Oregon Cascades, the Idaho ranges, and much of western Montana and Wyoming. Some seasonal model suites had hinted at drier conditions along the West Coast. Still, newer guidance and week 3–4 forecasts indicate a strong wet signal over the Northwest, so forecasters have shrunk the dry area back toward southeastern California.

In the Sierra Nevada and most of California, forecasters went with “equal chances” for precipitation across much of the state, reflecting uncertainty in how far south the storm track will extend. Southeastern California retains a weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation, so southern Sierra and southern California resorts remain more vulnerable if the moisture plume stays focused farther north.

For the central and southern Rockies and the interior Southwest (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico), odds favor drier-than-normal conditions across the broader Southwest and Southern Plains. This includes many Four Corners and southern Rockies resorts, where La Niña often shunts the main storm track to the north, so snowfall may depend on a few well-timed systems rather than frequent waves.

Across the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys, above-normal precipitation is favored, with a notable wet corridor from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. For ski areas around the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast that can tap into lake-effect and synoptic snow, this pattern often translates into frequent storm opportunities. However, exact snow-versus-rain outcomes will hinge on local temperature swings in surrounding equal-chance zones.

In the Southeast and southern Appalachians, a broad swath from the southern Plains across the Gulf Coast states into much of the Southeast is expected to be drier than normal, consistent with classic La Niña behavior. Lower-elevation ski areas in this belt may face fewer winter storms and more marginal events. At the same time, higher Appalachian resorts on the northern edge of the dry, warm anomalies will be sensitive to small shifts in the storm track, which could occasionally boost snow despite the overall drier signal.

For Alaska, western mainland Alaska leans toward wetter-than-normal conditions, while the southern coast and Southeast Alaska show a weak but consistent tilt toward below-normal precipitation driven by La Niña and long-term trends. That combination—colder but somewhat drier in the southeast, and wetter in the west—means snow prospects are strongest for western Alaskan mountains, with more uncertainty for Southeast coastal ski zones that depend on frequent Pacific storms.

The full discussion is below:

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2026 
 
The January 2026 Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are constructed 
by considering the La Niña base state, as well as dynamical climate models and 
integrated statistical tools. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain 
below average across the Central and East-Central Pacific Ocean, with SST 
departures in the Niño 3.4 region reaching -0.7 degrees C. These below-average 
SSTs have persisted since September 2025, and we are firmly within weak La Niña 
territory. Furthermore, atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean 
are consistent with La Niña, consequently, we expect La Niña teleconnections 
during January 2026. In contrast, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains 
more uncertain, as models suggest destructive interference from a strong Kelvin 
Wave may hinder its re-emergence. The January 2026 Outlooks are primarily 
shaped by the La Niña background state, dynamical climate models, local SST 
anomalies, sea ice, and land surface conditions (where appropriate). An 
experimental multiple linear regression (MLR) tool which estimates the 
influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), MJO, and decadal trends  
is utilized, as is a consolidation that includes influence of ENSO, decadal 
trends, and calibrated North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) output. Weeks 
3-4 forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), 
the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Coupled 
Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) models that cover the period to about 
mid-January were also considered. Impacts from the MJO, along with land surface 
variables such as snow cover, will be re-evaluated at the end of the month for 
the updated version of this Outlook. 
 
The January 2026 Temperature Outlook features increased chances of below-normal 
temperatures for much of Mainland Alaska, all of Southeast Alaska, and 
stretching from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Mississippi Valley. 
Above-normal temperatures are more likely for the Southern Tier of the 
Contiguous United States (CONUS), covering much of the Southwest, Four Corners, 
Southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Equal Chances (EC) of above-, 
near-, and below-normal temperatures are forecast for Western and Northern 
Alaska, the Northwest, much of Northern and Central California, the Central 
Plains, Great Lakes, and New England. A mid-level height pattern typical of La 
Niña has been established and is forecast to persist into at least mid-January 
per week 3-4 dynamical models . A blocking high has been a significant feature 
over the North Pacific and Aleutians, with downstream mid-level low pressure 
residing over eastern Alaska and portions of the Northwest. Above-average 
mid-level heights cover much of the Southern Tier and Eastern CONUS. The 
pattern reflected in the January 2026 Temperature Outlooks is consistent with 
La Niña expectations, though it has been modified based on available guidance. 
 
Probabilities for below-normal temperatures are highest over Southeast Alaska 
and adjacent areas of southeastern Mainland Alaska, reaching 50 to 60%, given 
consistency among various tools. Monthly forecasts for Alaska from NMME, C3S, 
and CFSv2 align with shorter-term week 3-4 forecasts in favoring these cooler 
conditions. Probabilities are also enhanced, reaching 50 to 60%, over Southern 
New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. This is driven by strong agreement 
between dynamical models  and higher-probability signals  in the shorter-term 
week 3-4 forecasts. 
 
While decadal trends  and certain tools like the CFSv2 tilt toward above-normal 
temperatures over the Northern Coast of Alaska, EC is indicated because early 
to mid-January is forecast to be at least slightly below-normal, and sea ice is 
present along the coast. Similarly, while La Niña often brings below-normal 
temperatures to the Northern Tier of the CONUS, sometimes including the 
Northwest, the NMME, C3S, and CFSv2 monthly outlooks are generally above-normal 
along the western third of the country. Furthermore, should the MJO become more 
coherent, it could introduce more variability, such as cooler temperatures in 
the West, though this influence is currently highly uncertain. EC is thus 
favored over much of the West and Northwest as we cannot discount the 
possibility of cooler air extending further West and South. 
 
Similarly, models are warm over the central CONUS, however, it is not unheard 
of during January and La Niña years to see cold air intrusions reach further 
South, as such we tilt toward EC over the central CONUS and will re-assess in 
the monthly update. In addition, uncertainty is high in the central CONUS in a 
consolidation of statistical tools (which include influence of trend and ENSO), 
and NMME, which adds to our uncertainty here. Finally, guidance was mixed and 
inconsistent over the Great Lakes and New England, which also led to a tilt 
toward EC. Because this La Niña is currently weak, increased variability and 
uncertainty are possible for some regions, which also supports EC. 
 
While some regions in the January Temperature Outlook remain uncertain due to 
the variability of weak La Niña teleconnections, the precipitation pattern is 
more consistent across various tools, closely resembling the expected La Niña 
signature. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the Northwest, Northern 
Rockies, Great Lakes, and much of the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys. 
Western Alaska also leans above-normal. Drier conditions are more likely across 
the Southwest, Southern Plains, and much of the Southeast. A weak tilt toward 
below-normal precipitation is also indicated over much of the southern coast of 
Mainland Alaska and all of Southeast Alaska. While the NMME and C3S favor 
below-normal precipitation up much of the West Coast, reaching into the 
Northwest in some models, recent forecasts from CFSv2 tilt above-normal for the 
month of January over the Northwest. Moreover, week 3 and week 4 dynamical 
models forecast at least 40 to 50% chances of above-normal precipitation over 
the Northwest. As such, we have minimized the region of below-normal 
precipitation forecast by some of the multi-model ensembles, confining it more 
to southeastern California. Given the uncertainty regarding how far South the 
moisture may reach, much of California is designated as EC. Above-normal 
precipitation is also indicated for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and parts of 
the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Tennessee Valley , which is a 
typical La Niña signature. These two areas of above-normal precipitation are 
connected by a weak (33 to 40%) chance of above-normal precipitation that is 
supported by the NMME and C3S. The below-normal precipitation favored over the 
southern tier is consistent with models and La Niña, though some uncertainty 
exists over parts of Texas and Louisiana as it is currently unclear how far 
south any above-normal precipitation might reach. Finally, over Alaska, decadal 
trends and La Niña support the forecast for below-normal precipitation over the 
southern coast of the Mainland and Southeast Alaska, while dynamical models  
like the NMME, C3S, and CFSv2 favor above-normal precipitation for much of the 
western Mainland.