Weather
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its 30-day outlook for July 2025 yesterday, offering a detailed forecast for temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States. This forecast is based on the latest model guidance, ocean temperatures, and surface moisture conditions, providing a comprehensive view of the month ahead.
Across much of the western United States, expect a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures. This trend is particularly pronounced in interior regions, where dry conditions and long-term warming patterns persist. However, the immediate coastal areas of California stand out as an exception. Here, cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures are expected to keep conditions closer to normal, with no clear tilt toward hotter or cooler weather.
In the Southwest, including Arizona and New Mexico, the forecast is shaped by the potential for an active monsoon season during the first half of July. While this could mean episodes of heavy rainfall, it also tempers the odds of prolonged heat, resulting in a more balanced temperature outlook for the region.
The north-central United States, the Great Lakes region, the Northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic are all expected to experience a slight increase in the probability of above-normal temperatures. This is supported by recent model trends and ongoing dry surface conditions in some areas. Meanwhile, the central Plains, central Mississippi Valley, mid-South, and Southeast—regions that have recently experienced intense heat and drying are now forecast to lean toward above-normal temperatures as well, a shift from earlier, more neutral expectations. Texas, in particular, is likely to face another round of extreme heat, with little rain in the forecast and heightened odds for above-normal temperatures.
Alaska’s temperature outlook is mixed. The northwest part of the state is now expected to experience above-normal temperatures, while the southwest coast is more likely to see below-normal readings. In Southeast Alaska, the previous expectation for above-normal temperatures has been removed, and conditions there are now forecast to be near average.
Turning to precipitation, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions, as do parts of the central Plains and southern Texas. These forecasts are consistent with both recent model guidance and long-term precipitation trends. Along the eastern seaboard, above-normal precipitation remains likely; however, the immediate Atlantic coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina are now forecast to have equal chances of experiencing above, below, or near-normal rainfall. The area of favored wetness does not extend as far west as in previous outlooks.
In the Southwest, particularly Arizona and New Mexico, the potential for an enhanced monsoon brings the likelihood of above-normal precipitation during the first half of July. For Alaska, the precipitation outlook remains essentially unchanged, with no significant shifts anticipated.
Overall, NOAA’s July 2025 outlook reflects the influence of ongoing dry conditions in the West, the potential for monsoonal rains in the Southwest, and continued uncertainty for central parts of the country, where model guidance shows high variability in precipitation. This forecast provides a broad regional overview to help communities and decision-makers prepare for the month ahead.
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2025 The update to the July 2025 temperature and precipitation outlooks is based on the latest evaluation of boundary conditions that include near-coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface moisture changes in both the soil and vegetation. The latest dynamical model guidance for the short-, medium-, extended- and subseasonal-range is utilized to adjust the mid-month outlook as well as monthly integrated forecasts from the CFS and other available S2S models. The most recent model guidance across time scales maintains high odds for monthly mean above-normal temperatures for much of the western contiguous U.S. Substantially below-normal near coast SSTs leads to a forecast of "Equal-Chances" or (EC) for the immediate near coastal areas of California. Indications at the end of the month for a robust monsoon circulation and potential heavy rainfall during periods of the first two weeks of July. This has led to the lowering the probabilities of above-normal temperatures somewhat for the Southwest. Model guidance supports slight increases in chances for above-normal temperatures for the north-central U.S., Great Lakes, Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Below- and near-normal precipitation along with extreme heat in many areas during the last 7-10 days in the central Plains, central Mississippi Valley, mid-south and Southeast has substantially depleted the large anomalies of enhanced surface wetness in the region via both soil evaporation and transpiration. With these changes along with the dynamical model guidance consistent with a more dry and likely warmer surface, the outlook now favors (slightly tilted) above-normal temperatures where EC was previously forecast. Little or no rainfall is forecast the next 7 days and with potential extreme heat returning to Texas the odds for above-normal temperatures for much of Texas are increased from the mid-June outlook. Only slight changes are made for the state of Alaska. These include the removal of favored above-normal temperatures for Southeast Alaska, the addition of elevated odds for above-normal temperatures for the northwest part of the state and a shift southward of favored below-normal temperatures for the southwest coast. For the precipitation outlook, forecast uncertainty has increased with the update at the end of the month, which is somewhat unusual. High variability in dynamical model guidance predictions of monthly total precipitation amounts is evident for much of CONUS then at mid-month - especially for the central CONUS. With this the cas e, the one highlighted area of favored below-normal precipitation is separated into regions where the strongest signals remain and are most consistent with model guidance and/or long-term precipitation trends . The areas include the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, parts of the central Plains and south Texas. The above-normal precipitation region along the eastern seaboard remains largely unchanged except for EC now forecast along the immediate Atlantic coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina and less west side coverage. As noted above, the potential for an enhanced Southwest monsoon during periods of the first half of July support the forecast of favored above-normal precipitation for parts of Arizona and New Mexico. For Alaska, the outlook remains basically unchanged. ***************************************************************************** ****** Previous discussion from mid-month release ****** ***************************************************************************** The July 2025 temperature and precipitation outlooks are primarily based on a combination of dynamical model guidance [both Week 3-4 and integrated monthly (North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), Copernicus multi-model ensemble system (C3S))], statistical forecast guidance, and current surface conditions. Although there has been considerable coherent subseasonal tropical variability in the form of atmospheric Kelvin wave activity, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has weakened substantially from its state in late May and early June. Moreover, forecasts of the MJO over the next few weeks do not predict any clear, reliable strengthening of the signal and so the MJO does not play a role in preparation of the July outlooks. Current land surface states such as anomalous soil moisture did contribute considerably to the outlooks for the upcoming month. The temperature outlook favors above-normal monthly mean temperatures for the western half of the contiguous U.S. as well as eastward across the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Above-normal temperatures are also favored along the Gulf coast, including all of Florida, and for Southeast Alaska. Probabilities are greatest for the western U.S. where warmer than normal conditions are overwhelmingly favored by both dynamical and statistical model guidance, long-term positive temperature trends , and drier than normal surface conditions in many areas. The odds for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S. from the Plains to the Northeast are lower due to somewhat less agreement in model guidance and varying surface conditions. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and some forecast tools favor a slight tilt toward above-normal temperatures for the Gulf coast and Florida. Ocean surface temperatures and potential weak ridging in dynamical model guidance elevates odds slightly for warmer than normal temperatures in proximity to Southeast Alaska. Alternatively, forecast troughing during the first half of July and cooler than normal SSTs in the Bering Sea favors an area of below-normal temperatures for a small region in Southwest Mainland Alaska. A large area of quite wetter than normal surface conditions from frequent and heavy precipitation events this late winter and spring were observed from the south-central Plains eastward to the Atlantic seaboard. This is likely to offset, to some degree, periods of warmer than normal conditions during July and interject considerable uncertainty for the eventual July monthly mean temperatures. So a forecast for "Equal-Chances" (EC) of either of the three categories is forecast from the Plains eastward across the mid-South, Tennessee Valley, lower Ohio Valley and Carolinas. For precipitation, both dynamical and statistical model guidance, long-term negative precipitation trends , in some areas, and drier than normal surface conditions support elevated odds for below-normal July monthly total precipitation amounts for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and the northern and central Plains. The most likely area for drier than normal conditions is for parts of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. Forecast troughing during the first half of July centered in the Bering Sea supports elevated odds for above-normal precipitation for much of western Mainland Alaska. The majority of NMME and C3S monthly precipitation forecasts are consistent with this wet signal. Long-term positive precipitation trends and NMME and C3S monthly dynamical model guidance favor above-normal precipitation for the Southeast, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast. Probabilities are modest overall for this region. Large variability from both dynamical and statistical model guidance and quite unusual late Spring temperature and precipitation conditions, makes the forecast for the Southwest monsoon region highly uncertain. Given this, the most appropriate forecast in this area for July 2025 is EC as either of the three categories are equally likely given the above information at this point in mid-June.
