NOAA July, August, September Outlook: Looking Like a Hot Summer Ahead…

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NOAA Temperature outlook. Credit: NOAA

The NOAA just released its outlook for the next three months. Above-normal temperatures are expected across most of the US, and above-normal precipitation for much of the Great Plains extends west to the Northern Rockies.

The full discussion is below:


Above-normal temperatures are favored throughout a majority of the U.S. during JAS with the highest probabilities (above 50 percent) forecast for much of the West, Gulf Coast, and East, consistent with dynamical model guidance and decadal trends. Although the July outlook depicts equal chances (EC) of below, near, or above-normal temperatures for the interior West, the enhanced probabilities (greater than 50 percent) for this region during JAS are justified for a three-month period with support from the consolidation tool and decadal trends . Based on the CBaM and an expectation of a weak monsoon, probabilities for above-normal temperatures exceed 60 percent across Arizona. Compared to the previous outlook, above-normal temperature probabilities were increased across the Corn Belt and Great Lakes due to a notable warming trend in the NMME from last month along with low soil moisture heading into July. Based on the latest NMME, lower probabilities (33 to 40 percent) are forecast for coastal central to southern California. EC is forecast across the north-central CONUS where large differences exist among the NMME, BaM, and El Niño composites. The consolidation tool and El Niño composites support increased above-normal temperature probabilities across much of Alaska, although EC is forecast for Northern Mainland Alaska where the warm signal is weaker among the statistical tools. Above-normal temperatures remain the most likely outcome throughout much of the U.S. from ASO to OND 2023. Beginning in NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024, predicted El Niño conditions result in enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS with an increasing coverage of EC across California, the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley. During the winter 2023-24, above-normal temperatures are favored across the East based on the statistical consolidation. During the spring and summer 2024, the temperature outlook is consistent with decadal trends .


Following this past winter and spring with above-normal snowfall across the West and current soil moisture above the 70th percentile, a sluggish start to the monsoon is likely for the Southwest during July. Based on good model continuity and agreement, forecast confidence is relatively high for a weak monsoon and therefore, below-normal precipitation is favored across the Southwest during JAS. Consistent with a predicted weaker Monsoon and supported by the NMME and El Niño composites, elevated chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for much of the Great Plains extending west to the Northern Rockies. Given the strong dry signal apparent among the statistical tools across Ontario and bordering Great Lakes, the JAs outlook leans towards below-normal precipitation across most of Michigan and northeastern Wisconsin. Based on the latest NMME, slightly elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation are forecast across the Florida Peninsula. Although recent dynamical model output backed off on the dry signal across the Pacific Northwest, statistical tools support a continuation of favored below-normal precipitation for parts of Oregon and Washington. Also, this is consistent with an increasing dry signal, associated with El Niño, during the fall season. Although decadal trends support above-normal precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic during JAS, EC is forecast for this region due to the drier El Niño composites and the absence of a wet signal in the NMME. Given inconsistent model output the past two months and conflicting signals among the tools, EC is also forecast for much of Alaska during JAS. However, below-normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of western Mainland Alaska based on the NMME. Precipitation outlooks during the fall 2023 through the winter 2023-24 relied upon El Niño composites and the consolidation tool with an increased chance of above (below)-normal precipitation across the southern (northern) tier of the CONUS. The largest probabilities (50 percent for above) are forecast across parts of the Southeast from NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024 based on a strong, reliable wet signal associated with El Niño. During the spring and summer 2023, the precipitation outlooks are based mostly on decadal trends

NOAA Precipitation outlook. Credit: NOAA

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