NOAA June, July, August Outlook | A Hot Summer Ahead for Most of the Nation

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JJA temperature outlook. Credit: NOAA

Last week the NOAA released its 3-month outlook for the months of June, July, and August (JJA). It looks like the majority of the country will bask in well above-normal temperatures for most of the summer, temperatures which have begun already in areas of California, Nevada, and Arizona.

JJA precipitation outlook. Credit: NOAA

With regards to precipitation, much of the eastern and central lower 48, and Alaska, will likely be wetter than normal. The PNW and much of the Rockies will be drier than normal.

The full discussion is below:

The June-July-August (JJA) 2020 temperature outlook favors above-normal 
temperatures across the West, Gulf Coast States, and along the East Coast. The 
largest probabilities (above 70 percent) of above normal temperatures are 
centered over the Four Corners region. Equal chances of below-, near-, or 
above-normal temperatures are forecast from the upper to middle Mississippi 
Valley along with parts of the northern to central Great Plains. The JJA 
precipitation outlook features increased chances of above normal precipitation 
for much of the eastern and central U.S., while below-normal precipitation is 
more likely across the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and much of the 
Rockies. Above-normal temperatures are favored throughout Alaska during JJA 
with increased chances of above-normal precipitation forecast for the Aleutians 
and most of mainland Alaska. 
During the late summer and early fall season, increased chances of above normal 
temperatures expand to include the entirety of the continental U.S. (CONUS) 
with the largest probabilities remaining over the Southwest. Meanwhile, chances 
of above-normal precipitation remain elevated across the Midwest, Southeast, 
and mid-Atlantic through August-September-October. By December-January-February 
2020-2021, equal chances were introduced to the northern to central Great 
Plains and Midwest. Increased chances of above normal precipitation shift from 
the Southeast to the northern areas of the CONUS during 
October-November-December, while chances of below normal precipitation expand 
across the southern tier of the CONUS. 
Equal chances (EC) are forecast in areas where the likelihood of seasonal mean 
temperatures or seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be 
similar to climatological probabilities.

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