NOAA March 2026 Outlook: Could Miracle March Save the Season?

The NOAA has just released its March 2026 outlook. Below is a summary for skiers and riders, followed by the full text discussion.

• Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Up to Two More Feet for Colorado With More Storms Lined Up

Warmer, drier weather is favored for much of the southern and central United States in March, while storms focus on the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley—good news for some ski regions and less so for others.

Big-picture pattern for March

Federal climate forecasters say the atmosphere is shifting into a more typical late-season La Niña setup, with the main storm track sliding north as milder air flows in from the Pacific. That favors warmer-than-normal conditions across most of the Rockies, Plains, Midwest, and East, with the strongest signal for warmth centered on the south-central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Colder-than-normal temperatures are most likely in Alaska and may clip parts of the northern High Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Mountain temperatures and snow potential

• Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies: Slightly cooler-than-average temperatures are possible near the Canadian border and in parts of Washington, northern Idaho, and Montana, increasing the odds that incoming storms fall as snow at ski elevations. Farther south into Oregon, Idaho’s central ranges, Wyoming, and Utah, odds tilt warmer than normal, so snow levels may run higher even when storms pass through.
• Sierra Nevada and Southwest ranges: California’s mountains, the southern Rockies, and the Four Corners states lean warmer than normal, which points to higher snow lines and more mixed rain-snow events, especially at lower-elevation ski hills.
• Central and southern Rockies and Intermountain West: Colorado, New Mexico, and interior Utah are all favored for above-normal temperatures, with the signal strongest from eastern Colorado into the central Plains, suggesting more springlike conditions and faster melt on south-facing slopes between storms.
• Northeast and Appalachians: The temperature outlook is more uncertain, with no strong tilt toward warm or cold, but the broader national pattern supports somewhat milder conditions overall as Pacific air spreads east.

Where the storms are likely to go

• Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern tier: The storm track is expected to shift north, putting the Cascades, Olympics, and northern Rockies in line for more frequent systems and a better chance at above-normal precipitation. Recent medium-range hazard outlooks already flag a moderate to slight risk of heavy mountain snow from the Cascades into the Bitterroots, Tetons, and Wind River Range, with the signal potentially continuing into the month.
• Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, and southern Rockies: From central California south through the Sierra, across Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and into the central and southern High Plains, odds favor below-normal precipitation in March, meaning fewer storms and longer dry spells between them. For ski areas in Tahoe, Mammoth, southern Utah, and much of Colorado and New Mexico, the pattern points to more hit-or-miss storm cycles rather than a steady parade of powder days.
• Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast: A separate corridor of above-normal precipitation is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, where lingering cold shots could still translate some of that moisture into late-season snow for higher-elevation resorts.
• Southeast: Florida and parts of the Southeast are favored to be drier than normal, reflecting the northward-focused storm path and deepening drought concerns there.

Regional takeaways for key ski areas

Pacific Northwest (Cascades, Olympics)

• Temperatures: Near to slightly below normal in the north; slightly above in the south.
• Precipitation: Above normal favored.
• Snowfall takeaway: Increased odds of frequent storms and productive snow cycles, especially in Washington and northern Oregon.

Northern Rockies (Bitterroots, Tetons, northern Idaho/western Montana)

• Temperatures: Near normal to slightly above, cooler near the Canadian border.
• Precipitation: Near to above normal, with episodes of heavy snow possible late February into early March.
• Snowfall takeaway: Solid chances for late-season refreshes and occasional deep events, though not a persistent cold pattern.

Central and southern Rockies (Utah, Colorado, New Mexico)

• Temperatures: Above normal favored.
• Precipitation: Tilt toward below normal, especially in the southern Rockies and High Plains.
• Snowfall takeaway: Fewer storms overall and warmer storm profiles; snow more elevation-dependent with longer dry stretches between powder days.

Sierra Nevada

• Temperatures: Above normal.
• Precipitation: Below normal favored after the current wet spell shifts north.
• Snowfall takeaway: After an active late February, March leans drier and warmer, with snow focused on colder, higher terrain when storms do return.

Northern tier, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast

• Temperatures: Near normal to slightly above overall, with periodic cold shots.
• Precipitation: Above normal favored in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
• Snowfall takeaway: Mixed rain-snow events at low elevations, but higher hills in the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast can still steal some late-season snow.

Alaska ranges

• Temperatures: Colder than normal statewide, except along the far north coast.
• Precipitation: Slight tilt toward below-normal precipitation for the central and southern mainland.
• Snowfall takeaway: Chillier air supports snow quality, but storm frequency may be lower for ranges near Anchorage and the interior.

La Niña fading but still in play

The ocean-atmosphere pattern known as La Niña is weakening, but forecasters say its influence, combined with a developing shift toward neutral conditions, continues to steer late-winter storms. That setup typically favors a wetter Pacific Northwest and drier southern tier, along with warmth across much of the country—exactly what the March outlook is signaling this year.

Full Discussion

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2026 
 
A major pattern shift occurred across the greater North America region just 
prior to the middle of February. High latitude blocking and penetrations of 
Arctic air in various regions of the mid-latitudes of the northern Hemisphere 
(i.e. strong -AO projection) dominated the second half of January and early 
February. The strong block impacting the far north Atlantic-Greenland region, 
etc. dissipated and allowed more progressive flow and an easing of the strong 
trough across eastern North America. In mid February, troughing replaced a 
persistent ridge near the West coast of North America and this has resulted in 
a much more stormy, active pattern across much of the CONUS. 
 
Extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance indicates the continuation of a 
progressive pattern entering early March with a northward shifted storm track 
across the CONUS to first order - consistent with a +AO and -PNA - quite 
opposite of what was observed in early-mid February. Positive 500-hPa height 
departures associated with northward shifted westerlies and more air of 
Pacific, maritime origin entering the CONUS supports primarily above-normal 
temperatures for much of the interior U.S. as forecast by ECMWF, GEFS and JMA 
subseasonal model guidance into mid-March. 
 
The forecast in the extended range and into early March is reasonably 
consistent with La Nina conditions - ridging/blocking in the north Pacific near 
the Date Line and troughing downstream along the coast of western North America 
- as anomalous enhanced convection remains observed near Indonesia. The MJO has 
not been all that coherent in recent weeks as other modes of coherent tropical 
subseasonal variability have focused the anomalous enhanced convection at the 
Maritime continent. Model RMM forecasts are mixed with any MJO strengthening 
and organized eastward propagation. The ECMWF forecast is for no clear 
organized signal, while the GEFS indicates some potential eastward propagation 
but with large forecast spread. The state of the MJO will be reviewed prior to 
the end of the month update. Other factors considered in preparation of the 
outlook are potential remaining snowpack in parts of the Northeast, extensive 
severe and extreme drought conditions for much of the Southeast U.S. and 
southern Great Plains and the snow drought along the northern tier of the U.S. 
from the northern and central Plains eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley 
and western Great Lakes. 
 
The above climate factors and extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance 
support favored above-normal temperatures for much of the CONUS for areas of 
the southern Far West, Southwest, most of the Rockies eastward to include the 
majority of the central CONUS and Ohio Valley and Southeast U.S. The highest 
odds for above-normal temperatures are forecast for portions of the 
south-central Plains and Mississippi Valley where the majority of forecast 
guidance and tools are in best agreement. Odds for above-normal temperatures 
are less for parts of the western U.S. with a small area of slightly elevated 
odds for below-normal temperatures highlighted for parts of the Pacific 
Northwest. A sharp demarcation in the forecast anomalous height pattern in 
central North America may allow colder air intrusions into the northern U.S. 
and so a narrow region of slightly favored below-normal temperatures is 
highlighted for parts of the northern Plains at this time. Equal-Chances (EC) 
for above-, near-, and below-normal monthly mean temperatures is forecast for 
the Northeast where some troughing and snowpack increases uncertainty. 
 
Strong ridging forecast by model guidance west of Alaska supports an amplified 
trough over much of the state with strong anomalous northerly flow and so 
below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of Alaska. For northern and 
northwestern Alaska, trends  in below-normal sea ice coverage and above-normal 
near coast SSTs keep these areas EC for the mid-month outlook, although this 
forcing is considerably weaker this February than in previous years. 
 
For precipitation, a northward shifted storm track entering March as indicated 
by extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance favors below-normal 
precipitation from central California southward and eastward to the central and 
southern High Plains. Current above-normal precipitation across the west is 
forecast to shift north in the coming week and elevated probabilities for 
above-normal precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest eastward along 
and just south of the Canadian border. This area meets another region of 
favored above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley 
consistent with residual La Nina and potential MJO influenced precipitation, 
along with favored below-normal precipitation in the extreme Southeast CONUS. 
Anticipated anomalous northerly flow across Alaska favors a slight tilt toward 
below-normal precipitation for areas of central and southern Mainland Alaska.