NOAA November 2022 Outlook: Expect Above-Normal Temperatures and Normal to Below-Normal Precipitation

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November outlook, NOAA, temperature
November temperature outlook. Credit: NOAA

The NOAA just released its outlook for November 2022. As the month when the majority of ski resorts begin opening, we’re hoping for cold and snowy to kick off the season right.

Expect above-normal temperatures for the majority of the west and the northeast, and with the exception of the northwest, expect normal or below-normal precipitation.

The full discussion is below:

The November 2022 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are prepared against a 
backdrop of established La Niña conditions in the Tropical Pacific, and include 
the latest statistical and dynamical model guidance, impacts from decadal 
trends, and local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The latest NINO3.4 
weekly SST departures reached -0.8 degrees Celsius and the tropical Pacific 
atmosphere remains consistent with La Niña. Following a progressive Madden 
Julian Oscillation (MJO) pattern in both observations and forecasted Realtime 
Multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, recent RMM forecasts from the Global Ensemble 
Forecast System (GEFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 
(ECMWF) models indicate a stagnanting MJO signal. MJO did not play a 
significant role in the November 2022 Outlooks. Dynamical model guidance from 
the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), Copernicus model suite (C3S), 
and dynamical model predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 
(CFSv2) were considered for the outlook, as well as statistical models that 
include the influence of La Niña and trend on temperature and precipitation. 
Week 3-4 forecasts from CFSv2 and GEFSv12 for the early part of November were 
also considered. 
Week-2 dynamical model guidance favors troughing over the Western US, which is 
expected to shift eastward by the Week 3-4 period (early November). By the Week 
3-4 period, GEFSv12 and CFSv2 are in agreement on western U.S. ridging, while 
the strength, location, and timing of predicted troughing over the eastern U.S. 
is uncertain. Recent monthly CFSv2 temperature forecasts favor above normal 
probabilities over the western U.S. with weaker probabilities over the eastern 
U.S., likely related to the forecasted ridge and trough pattern. Though there 
is good agreement among tools on above normal temperature probabilities over 
much of the western and south-central U.S., monthly forecasts of temperature 
from NMME and C3S favor weaker, but still above normal temperature 
probabilities over the eastern U.S. A consolidation of statistical tools 
indicates equal chances of above, normal, or below normal temperatures (EC) 
from the eastern part of Texas to the east coast, with increased odds of above 
normal temperatures in the western U.S. Given the agreement among tools on 
probability of above normal temperatures over the western U.S. along with 
forecasted ridging, above normal temperature probabilities are indicated for 
much of the western 2/3 of the CONUS. The area of highest probabilities over 
the Southwest and parts of Texas is consistent with the region of strongest 
dynamical and statistical model agreement. A weak tilt toward above normal 
temperatures is favored over parts of New England owing to decadal trends  as 
well as consistency between NMME and C3S, however, coastal SSTA are cool or 
mixed which led to a dampening of the probabilities. In contrast, uncertainty 
in the strength, position, and timing of the forecasted troughing during the 
early part of November, along with weak signals  from NMME, C3S, and statistical 
guidance led to EC over the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. There is 
some indication of weak odds of below normal temperatures over the Pacific 
Northwest when considering a statistical tool of constructed analogues of 
NINO3.4 SSTA, however, this signal is not consistent in NMME, C3S, or other 
available statistical tools, thus, EC is also favored for the Pacific Northwest 
and northern parts of CONUS. 
Temperature forecasts over Alaska are mixed, with GEFS and CFSv2 disagreeing on 
the strength and positioning of troughing or ridging over Alaska in early parts 
of November, and much of Alaska tilting toward EC in monthly statistical and 
dynamical tools. The area of best agreement is along the North Slope of Alaska 
where trends  and expected La Niña impacts tilt toward above normal 
temperatures. This is further supported by warmer than normal SSTs and below 
normal sea ice off the north coast of Alaska. As such, EC is favored for much 
of southern Alaska in the November Outlook, with a small area of above normal 
temperatures favored over the North Slope. 
A generally dry pattern is favored by dynamical and statistical models over 
much of the southern half of the U.S. Recent CFSv2 predictions favor an overall 
dry pattern over most of CONUS, with some weakness in the western U.S. and a 
tilt toward above normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. The dry 
southern tier of CONUS is consistent with expected La Niña impacts. The area of 
strongest statistical and dynamical model agreement on below normal 
precipitation is from the region stretching from Arizona across Texas, and 
probabilities are enhanced accordingly. A tilt toward above normal 
precipitation is indicated over the Pacific Northwest, consistent with expected 
impacts from La Niña and dynamical model guidance from NMME and C3S. EC is 
indicated for the northern Great Plains to the Northeast given weak or 
inconsistent signals  from statistical and dynamical model guidance. 
Elevated probabilities of above normal precipitation are favored for the North 
Slope of Alaska given expected impacts from La Niña and decadal trends . EC is 
favored for the remainder of Alaska given uncertainty amongst tools. 
FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti
November outlook, NOAA, precipitation
November precipitation outlook. Credit: NOAA

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