NOAA October 2025 Outlook: Will Warm Fall Delay Early Snow For Ski Resorts?

Yesterday, the NOAA released its monthly outlook for October 2025. Below is a summary for those unfamiliar with meteorological terminology, and the full discussion further down for those who are.

• Related: SnowBrains Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Month-by-Month and Region-by-Region — Where it’s Going to Snow This Winter
• Related: Farmers’ Almanac Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Cold and Snowy Winter Ahead. But Where?
• Related: NOAA Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Nor’easters and Pacific Powder—This is Where it Will Snow

TL;DR – Most U.S. ski regions can expect a warmer-than-normal October, with the best chances for early-season snowfall in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and southeast Alaska, thanks to pockets of wetter weather. Southern and central regions are predicted to be warmer and drier than usual, so early snow is unlikely there this year.

Western U.S.

• Temperature: Higher-than-normal temperatures are likely across most of the West, including the Rockies and Sierra Nevada.
• Precipitation: The Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies could see above-normal precipitation, while California, the Southwest, and most of the Rockies have equal chances for either wet or dry weather.
• Snowfall: Due to the warm outlook, lower elevations will have a lower chance of experiencing early snowfall, but higher mountains in the northern Rockies and northwest could still see early-season snow if storms align.

Central U.S.

• Temperature: Expect above normal temperatures extending from the Southwest into parts of the central and southern Plains. The central Plains and Midwest have no strong signal, which means about equal chances for warmer or cooler than usual weather.
• Precipitation: A large area from east Texas through the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys is forecast to be drier than usual, which may not be great news for early ski season in southern Midwest resorts.
• Snowfall: With both warmer and drier conditions likely in the southern Plains and lower Midwest, early-season snow chances are reduced in those areas.

Eastern U.S.

• Temperature: Warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored all along the Eastern Seaboard, including the Northeast and Southeast.
• Precipitation: Most of the East has equal chances for wet or dry, but Florida and extreme southern Georgia are more likely to see above-normal precipitation, perhaps due to tropical systems.
• Snowfall: The warmth will likely delay the first snowfall in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, except in higher mountain areas. Southern Appalachian resorts also face reduced odds for early snow.

Alaska

• Temperature: Most of Alaska has a slight tilt toward being warmer than usual, except for near-normal conditions in west-central coastal areas.
• Precipitation: South-central and southeast coastal Alaska should see wetter-than-normal weather, improving prospects for first snow at places like Alyeska.
• Snowfall: Coastal mountain regions, especially southeast Alaska, could see decent early snowfall if the precipitation lines up with cold snaps.

Key Points for Skiers & Riders

• Most U.S. ski regions enter autumn warmer than average, and for many, without a strong wet or dry signal except in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and southeast Alaska.
• Early snow is most likely at altitude in the Northwest and southeast Alaska, while most lower elevation or southern areas will wait longer for winter storms.
• Stay updated, as forecast skill improves closer to the season, and the late September update may provide more detail.
• If planning October turns, look to higher elevations in the Northwest, the northern Rockies, or southeast Alaska for the best shot at early snowfalls this year.

The full discussion is below:

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2025 
 
The October 2025 temperature and precipitation outlooks considered the evolving 
state of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), strength and forecast of 
the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as well as other coherent subseasonal 
tropical variability, anomalous land surface conditions (soil moisture, 
vegetation extent) and both remote and near coastal extratropical sea surface 
temperatures (SSTs). 
 
Dynamical model guidance from the Week 3-4 time period was evaluated and 
utilized from the ECMWF, GEFS and CFS. Monthly integrations from the NMME and 
C3S ensemble system suites were also used, both ensemble mean and individual 
participant model solutions. I note that the SPEAR NMME contributing model 
continues to be unavailable from NOAA GFDL. 
 
The October temperature outlook favors monthly mean above-normal temperatures 
for much of the country. This includes the western CONUS where forecast 
guidance, strongly positive temperature trends , large regions of anomalous 
surface dryness (soil and vegetation) as well as anomalously warm local coastal 
and greater north Pacific SSTs support this forecast. For southern Texas and 
the eastern U.S., both statistically and dynamical forecast guidance, positive 
temperature trends  in some areas and in the cas e of the Ohio Valley and 
mid-South rapidly developing drought conditions lead to the warmer-than-normal 
forecast. 
 
For Alaska, a number of factors at play make the forecast for this region 
especially challenging this month. Some forecast guidance favors troughing 
entering October in proximity to the state and so potential below-normal 
temperatures. But this is offset by above-normal SSTs in many coastal areas 
around the state as well as quite strong positive temperature trends  related to 
the negative trend in sea ice advance and coverage. For these reasons, an area 
of favored near-normal monthly mean temperatures is forecast for the 
west-central coastal areas, while only modest odds for above-normal 
temperatures are forecast for the north Slope of Alaska and for much of the 
south coastal areas of the state. 
 
For much of the interior portion of the CONUS, Equal-Chances (EC) is forecast 
as the highest outlook uncertainty is located in this region. In this area, 
weak short-term climate signals  and highly conflicting factors that include 
dynamical model guidance, soil moisture conditions and uncertain impact from 
the evolving La Nina state (i.e. La Nina Watch currently in place). 
 
For precipitation, the October 2025 outlook is quite conservative due to a 
number of factors including the time within the overall annual cycle where the 
signal-to-noise ratio and so forecast predictability is the least. In addition 
to above, outside of a just a few regions in the U.S., impacts from ongoing 
climate drivers are generally weak and largely unclear, forecast guidance is 
strongly conflicted and historical outlook skill for many tools is quite low 
with poor reliability. 
 
Dynamical model guidance during the first 2 weeks of October from Week 3-4 
ensemble modeling systems indicates an active pattern for the northeast Pacific 
and so above-normal monthly total precipitation amounts are favored for the 
south-central and southeast coastal areas of Alaska and for some areas in the 
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. This is consistent with the Pacific 
ocean-atmosphere state evolving to a potential La Nina event entering autumn 
and early winter. 
 
During early October, indications from some model guidance for northward 
shifted westerlies, on average, favor below-normal precipitation for areas of 
the south-central U.S., lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. This is 
also consistent with evolving potential La Nina conditions entering fall. 
 
Slightly elevated odds for above-normal precipitation is also forecast for the 
Florida Peninsula and extreme southern Georgia due model guidance suggesting a 
continuation of a weakness in subtropical ridging in the east-central Gulf of 
America and associated moisture impacting this area. Also, there is the 
potential for tropical cyclones or disturbances from the Gulf of America and 
western Caribbean to impact this area as this moisture can impact far eastern 
Gulf Coast states and Florida during the month of October. 
 
The outlook depicts an above-normal amount of coverage of EC due to some of the 
factors noted above. These areas include the Southwest, much of the Rockies, 
northern Plains, Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Additional clarity in 
forecast factors over the next two weeks may allow greater non-EC outlook 
coverage when the October 2025 updated monthly outlook is released on the last 
day of September. 
 
FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
An updated monthly outlook... for Oct will be issued on Tue September 30 2025 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
$$