The NOAA released its seasonal outlooks late last week, including December, January, and February 2022-23. It’s looking warmer and dryer than normal for most of the country, the exception being the PNW and Alaska, where they’re forecasting colder and wetter.
The outlook for December-January-February (DJF) 2022-2023 now slightly favors below-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, reflecting current guidance and a bit more certainty in the La Niña continuing through early portions of 2023. Correspondingly, the outlooks for JFM and FMA 2023 are also colder across the Northern Great Plains.
Outlooks from OND2022 through JFM2023 are largely similar to the July outlooks but with minor changes. One minor change is the addition of an area where above-normal precipitation is favored across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Another minor change is the slight increase in probabilities for below-normal precipitation across the Southwest and Southern California, reflecting the greater certainty in La Niña persisting through the winter. The La Niña signature is likely to fade during FMA and MAM2023, given that La Niña and ENSO-neutral are about even odds.
- Related: Farmers’ Almanac 2022/23 Winter Forecast: Extreme Winter Predicted With Heavy Snow For 1 Area in Particular