Today is the first day of spring and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) yesterday released its outlook on the next three months. The outlook indicates that much of the country will see above-average temperatures. The Northern Rockies and Plains were the only areas where average temperatures are expected. In terms of precipitation, the CPC is leaning towards above-average precipitation for the eastern half of the United States. Below-average precipitation is expected for the Pacific Northwest.
ENSO-neutral conditions remain in place across the Pacific Ocean and ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through summer 2020. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty for the phase of ENSO entering autumn into early winter 2020.
The April-May-June (AMJ) temperature outlook favors seasonal mean temperatures to be above-normal for nearly all of the United States with the greatest odds forecast for northwest Alaska, California and the Southwest, along the Gulf Coast and for the eastern one-third of the country. Lower probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas of the central lower 48 and the Alaska Panhandle. A similar pattern is forecast through the summer and autumn months moving forward.
For precipitation, there are elevated odds for above-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts for northwest Alaska and for most of the central and eastern U.S. with the highest chances located across the Ohio Valley. Below-normal precipitation is most likely for the South coast of Alaska southward and eastward to include the Pacific Northwest and northern California, the central Rockies, New Mexico, and western and southern Texas.
Progressing into and through summer 2020, the aforementioned regions of above- and below-normal precipitation are maintained, but at decreased coverage and confidence.