NOAA: Storm Door To Finally OPEN For California | Weak Storms This Week, Stronger Storm Possible Next Week…

WeatherBrains | | WeatherWeather
“The key to the storm door for northern California may have been found with the first in a series of weather systems expected to move into northern California late today and tonight. Another system will move through the north state late Friday into Saturday. Neither of these systems is expected to contain a lot of rainfall or high elevation snow but most of Norcal should get some precipitation. After a brief break, more possibly wetter systems are expected early next week.” – NOAA today

Big news for CA:  the high pressure that allowed for only 10″ of snow in Tahoe and only 4″ of snow at Mammoth for the entire month of December is forecast to break down tonight!

NOAA is calling for a gentle moistening of California’s mountains this week with light accumulations of rain and high elevation snowfall before the possibility of a stronger storm next week on Tuesday.

Summary:

A weak and rather warm system tonight and Thursday morning will
bring light rain showers and high elevation snow showers. The
pattern remains unsettled into the weekend, with a system Friday
into Saturday bringing additional chances for showers along with
falling snow levels by Saturday. A brief break is expected Sunday
into Monday with a return to more active weather by Tuesday.
- NOAA Reno, NV today
“Two systems will move through NorCal between Wednesday and Saturday. Around .50″ expected in the Valley with 1-2″ in the Mountains.” – NOAA yesterday

Snow levels will be around 8,000′ tonight. 

4″ of snow is possible above 8,000′ tonight.

The upper ridge finally begins to weaken tonight as a lead wave in
an upcoming series skirts by over northern California. As the
wave moves through late tonight, some light showers and high
elevation snow is expected, mainly in the northern Sierra and
across northeast California. Rain and liquid equivalent precipitation
amounts up to 0.25" could fall near the northern Sierra crest,
with most other areas seeing less than 0.10". Snow levels will
remain high, generally above 7500 to 8000 feet, so any minor impacts
should remain limited to above the major cross-Sierra thoroughfares.
- NOAA Reno, NV today

Another storm is forecast to come in on Friday/Saturday that may have a bit more precipitation and lower snow levels.

Snow levels may drop as low as 7,000′ Friday/Saturday.

“Modest” amounts of snowfall are forecast.

As far as precip, it looks wetter, but there will be limited
spillover into western Nevada with the system at it is fairly
stable aloft and blocking would be preferred. Snow levels also
look to gradually fall to 6500-7000 feet in the northern Sierra,
and possibly down to 5500 feet near the Oregon Border, for Friday
night. This may allow for slick conditions to reach the main
northern Sierra passes by Saturday morning, although snowfall
amounts look modest.
- NOAA Reno, NV today
California finally getting some love in the 10 day snowfall forecast from the GEM model. image: tropicaltidbits.com

A stronger storm may impact California next Tuesday with lower snow levels and more precipitation.

After a break Sunday and Monday, a more significant system could affect the region for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Model solutions currently are not in very good agreement with this system, but the potential exists for much heavier precipitation with snowfall impacts possible in the high Sierra.

– NOAA Reno, NV today

Snow probability in CA looks good this weekend. image: noaa, today

Special Weather Statement for California:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service RENO NV
436 AM PST Wed Jan 3 2018

Surprise Valley California-Lassen-Eastern Plumas-
Eastern Sierra Counties-Greater Lake Tahoe Area-Mono County-
Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area-Northern Washoe County-
Including the cities of Cedarville, Eagleville, Fort Bidwell,
Portola, Susanville, Westwood, Sierraville, Loyalton,
South Lake Tahoe, Tahoe City, Truckee, Markleeville, Bridgeport,
Coleville, Lee Vining, Mammoth Lakes, Stateline, Glenbrook,
Incline Village, Sparks, Verdi, Gardnerville, Virginia City,
Empire, and Gerlach

...PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...

A persistent ridge of high pressure begins to weaken tonight, with
several modest systems to affect eastern California and western
Nevada into the weekend. Stronger low pressure with more significant
precipitation is possible next week.

The first couple waves through Friday will be relatively warm in
nature with high snow levels; minimal travel impacts are expected
below 7500 to 8000 feet. The last disturbance will push a cold
front into the region Friday night or Saturday. While snowfall
amounts are expected to be modest, travel impacts over Sierra or
northeast California passes will be possible by late Friday night
as snow levels fall.

After a break Sunday and Monday, a more significant system could
affect the region for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Model solutions
currently are not in very good agreement with this system, but the
potential exists for much heavier precipitation with snowfall
impacts possible in the high Sierra.
image: noaa, today


			

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