NOAA VIDEO: Details of the 2 Storms Forecast in California Next Week | One Weak, One Strong

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video showing forecast timing of the two storms to hit CA next week.

NOAA continues to talk about a series of storms hitting CA next week with the bigger, colder storm being on Thursday/Friday.

The above video gives you an idea of what the timing of those storms is to be like.

The storms the will hit before Thursday appear to be weak and warm with high snow levels.

“Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected today and through the weekend as high pressure builds into northeast California and western Nevada. More active weather is expected next week, especially by late week, as the stronger of two systems moves through the region. Bottom Line: If you have travel plans pay attention to the forecast for next week.” – NOAA Reno, NV today

GEM weather model showing around 48″ of snow for Tahoe in the next 10 days. image: tropicaltidbits.com, today

NOAA’s forecast discussion below further details the timing of next weeks storms explaining how the first storm will be weak and the second storm may produce up to a foot of snow above 7,000′.

The GEM weather model is showing an insane (48″) amount of snow in California in the next 10 days, but the GFS weather model is more modest showing around 20″ of snow in California in the next 10 days.

GFS weather model showing around 20″ of snow for Tahoe in the next 10 days. image: tropicaltidbits.com, today

LONG TERM FORECAST FOR CA’s MOUNTAINS:

LONG TERM...Wednesday and beyond...

After a short break in between storm systems on Wednesday
(overall expect one more day of temperatures well above average
with moderate late day breezes), the next storm later next week
still looks to be notably stronger and colder than the first one.
While there are still some varying scenarios and timing
discrepancies, this system has the potential to produce the first
meaningful snowfall of this season, not only for the Tahoe
basin/Sierra valleys but also for lower elevations of western
NV/eastern CA.
Liquid precip forecast for CA from now until Jan 19th. image: noaa, today
The medium range guidance has trended a bit faster with the arrival
of this storm, which will be driven by a powerful Pacific jet
stream. Winds could increase as soon as Wednesday night/early
Thursday with a period of strong south winds in far western NV,
followed by a broader areas of potentially strong winds on
Thursday ahead of the cold front. While it is too soon to
determine whether downslope enhancement will occur, the
pressure/thermal gradient and mid-upper level wind profiles on
their own could support 45+ mph gusts in lower elevations, with
100+ mph Sierra ridge gusts.

As for precipitation, the bulk of the moisture appears more likely
to occur during the daytime and evening hours on Thursday. The
faster timing of the cold front passage could push snow levels
down to some western NV valleys by the Thursday evening commute,
with temperatures dropping below freezing at all elevations
Thursday night. Snowfall potential remains a wild card, depending
on the amount of moisture drawn in by this storm, and whether the
heaviest precip falls in the warm or cold sector. Early snowfall
projections of a foot or more in the Sierra above 7000 feet, with
several inches down to 5500 feet, seem reasonable. Lighter snow
amounts capable of producing travel impacts are possible Thursday
evening and overnight in the western Nevada foothills and even
down to some valley floors.

Next Friday looks to be chilly with brisk west to northwest winds
and isolated-scattered light snow showers. Medium range guidance
hints as a possible secondary shortwave passage across northeast CA,
which could produce some localized heavier snow shower bands Friday
afternoon/early evening. The cold air mass over the warmer lake
water could also support enhanced snow shower bands downwind of
larger lakes.

Beyond Friday, medium range guidance/ensembles diverge with the
storm track/timing, but it appears that an overall unsettled pattern
with fast moving weather systems could continue further into late
January. Temperatures are unlikely to return to the warm values
expected through Monday.

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