[NOVEMBER UPDATE] NOAA Winter 2025-26 Forecast: New Forecast Pinpoints Snowiest (and Driest) Regions

The November update of the NOAA long-lead outlook delivers fresh insight into the 2025–26 winter forecast across America’s mountain regions.

• Related: SnowBrains Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Month-by-Month and Region-by-Region — Where it’s Going to Snow This Winter
• Related: Farmers’ Almanac Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Cold and Snowy Winter Ahead. But Where?
• Related: Winter 2024-25 Scorecard: How the Big Names in Long Range Weather Forecasting Fared

Below is a breakdown of the key changes, detailed regional outlooks, and what winter 2025-26 may bring to skiers and riders, followed by the full discussion at the bottom.

Temperature Outlook

• General Pattern: La Niña conditions are expected to persist through winter, favoring a split temperature pattern across the US.
• Colder Areas: Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Upper Mississippi Valley, Northern and Central Great Plains west to the Northern Rockies and parts of the Pacific Northwest. Early December is likely to be colder-than-normal in the Midwest and northern states due to atmospheric patterns including a negative Arctic Oscillation and a modulating Madden-Julian Oscillation.
• Warmer Areas: Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the East Coast, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, Southwest, and California. Florida Peninsula and parts of the Southwest have the highest confidence for above-normal temperatures.
• Alaska: Southeastern Alaska is likely to be colder than normal, while northwestern Alaska is expected to be warmer than normal.

Precipitation Outlook

• Snowiest/Wettest Areas: The Northern Rockies, Northern Great Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Pacific Northwest and western mainland Alaska are favored to have above-normal precipitation, increasing snowfall potential in these ski regions.
• Driest Areas: Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across much of the southern tier of the US—especially the Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, Southwest, and southern California. Below-normal precipitation is also favored for southeastern Alaska, though this has trended wetter recently.
• Mountain Ranges & Ski Resorts:
  • Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains: Most likely to see above-average snowfall, making resorts here strong candidates for good ski conditions.
  • Pacific Northwest: Mixed signals; some wetness expected, but overall more variable precipitation chances.
  • Sierra Nevada: December may bring increased precipitation, possibly extending into January, benefiting ski resorts.
  • Southwest Ski Areas (southern Utah, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona): Below-normal snowfall is anticipated, indicating a drier winter.
  • Central and Northern Rockies: Snowfall near or above normal is likely, supporting skiing.

Changes Since October Update

• The outlook now indicates a slightly warmer southern tier (including the Southwest and Florida) than what was anticipated earlier in the fall.
• The precipitation outlook has been adjusted to show less pronounced dryness in the southern Southwest, reflecting recent wetter-than-normal conditions in October and November that could continue.
• Confidence remains high for a typical La Niña pattern with colder and snowier conditions in the northern half of the US and drier, warmer conditions in the south.

Summary for Skiers

• For the best snow this winter, focus on the Northern Rockies (Montana and Idaho), the Northern High Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley.
• The Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada have potential for solid snowfall, especially early to mid-winter.
• Ski resorts in the southern Rockies and Southwest should prepare for below-average snowfall and drier conditions.
• East Coast ski areas might experience warmer conditions overall, but northern states near the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley could see colder and snowier weather.

This forecast suggests a classic La Niña winter pattern with a strong north-south temperature and precipitation contrast, providing a good outlook for snowy conditions in the northern U.S. mountain ranges and much drier, warmer conditions in the southern ski areas.

Outlook Maps for NOAA winter 2025-26 forecast

Full Discussion

Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
La Niña conditions continue with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below average 
across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña is slightly 
favored to persist through December-January-February but is likely to remain 
weak. A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by early spring 2026. 
 
The December-January-February (DJF) 2025-26 Temperature Outlook favors 
above-normal temperatures across much of the East Coast, Southeast, Gulf Coast, 
Texas, the Southwest, and California. The DJF Temperature Outlook leans towards 
below-normal temperatures from the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern to 
Central Great Plains west to parts of the Pacific Northwest. An increased 
chance of below (above)-normal temperatures is forecast for southeastern 
(northwestern) Alaska. 
 
The DJF Precipitation Outlook depicts elevated below-normal precipitation 
probabilities for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, 
the Southwest, and California. Above-normal precipitation is favored from the 
Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes south to the Ohio Valley along with 
the Northern Great Plains, Northern Rockies, and parts of the Pacific 
Northwest. An increased chance of below (above)-normal precipitation is 
forecast for southeastern (northwestern) Alaska. 
 
Areas depicted in white and labeled "Equal-Chances" or "EC" are regions where 
climate signals  are weak, and so there are equal chances for either above-, 
near- or below-normal seasonal mean temperatures or total precipitation amounts. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
Weekly observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño 3.4 region are 
below average throughout the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest 
weekly SST departure, centered on November 12, is -0.7 degrees C. The negative 
SST anomalies recently expanded eastward across the equatorial Pacific to the 
South American coast. Since the beginning of September, subsurface temperature 
anomalies (averaged from 180-100W and 0-300 meters depth) have remained 
negative with little change in magnitude. 
 
From October 17 to November 11, negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) 
anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) continued over Indonesia, 
Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and parts of northern Australia. Conversely, 
positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation) were observed 
at and near the Date Line. Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies were easterly 
from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while 
upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies were westerly over most of the equatorial 
Pacific. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect La Niña conditions. 
 
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) slowed and weakened during mid-November as 
it destructively interfered with the La Niña background state. Dynamical model 
Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) forecasts depict a strengthening MJO with 
eastward propagation over the West Pacific from late November to the beginning 
of December. The extratropical response, associated with a West Pacific MJO, 
favors an amplifying 500-hPa ridge (trough) over Alaska (west-central CONUS) by 
the end of November which would promote anomalous cold to shift southeast into 
the lower 48 states. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The CPC SST consolidation forecast for Niño 3.4 depicts La Niña conditions 
persisting through at least DJF as the SST anomaly remains near -0.5 degrees C. 
The dynamical models  and the Constructed Analog are in good agreement that SSTs 
become closer to average by later in the winter or early next spring. The 
International Multimodel Ensemble (C3S) members depict a similar timing of when 
the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions happens. The CPC ENSO outlook 
indicates that La Niña is favored to persist through DJF before a transition to 
ENSO-neutral conditions during January-February-March. ENSO-neutral is strongly 
favored (near or more than a 70 percent chance) through the 2026 spring. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
The Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for DJF 2025-26 were based on La 
Niña composites, expectations for periods of a negative Arctic Oscillation, the 
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and the Copernicus (C3S) 
multi-model ensemble system. A Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) 
version of the NMME was also considered. An objective, historical 
skill-weighted consolidation that includes the NMME along with statistical 
tools such as the SST-based Constructed Analog and the ENSO-OCN was used 
through April-May-June 2026. Beyond that time, the consolidation only includes 
statistical tools. Long-term climate trends  were considered for all leads, but 
were relied upon most during the summer and fall 2026. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - DJF 2025 TO DJF 2026 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
The DJF Temperature Outlook was based largely on La Niña composites, the 
calibrated NMME where it is more skillful over previous winter seasons, and the 
consolidation tool. High-latitude blocking has been quite prevalent since 
mid-October with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in a negative phase for much of 
the past month. The GEFS and ECENS favor a persistence of a negative AO into 
the beginning of December. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to 
strengthen and propagate east over the West Pacific (phase 7). This MJO 
evolution can lead to an amplifying mid-level ridge over Alaska and an outbreak 
of anomalously cold temperatures shifting southeast from the north-central to 
eastern CONUS. Due to a persistent negative AO and an expected MJO influence, 
early December is likely to be colder-than-normal across the Midwest and the 
December outlook depicts elevated below-normal temperature probabilities for 
this region. This favored colder-than-normal forecast for December was a factor 
in expanding the slight lean towards below southeastward compared to the DJF 
outlook released in October. In addition to the negative AO and MJO influences, 
the stratospheric polar vortex is forecast to become stretched and displaced 
off the North Pole. Although a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is not 
forecast by the GEFS, the ECMWF ensemble mean from November 18 depicts a slight 
reversal of 10-hPa zonal winds at 60N consistent with a SSW, which could 
prolong the negative AO. A SSW would be very rare for this time of year. Even 
if a SSW does not occur during late November, this may set the stage for 
additional polar vortex disruptions and a major SSW with impacts to the 
troposphere later this winter. Temperatures are expected to be highly variable 
along and north of the 40th parallel this winter which is typical during La 
Niña. The DJF outlook leans towards below-normal temperatures from the Upper 
Mississippi Valley and Northern to Central Great Plains west to the Northern 
Rockies and parts of the Pacific Northwest where below-normal temperatures 
occur most frequently during La Niña winters and there is additional support 
from the consolidation tool. The calibrated NMME supports an increased chance 
of above-normal temperatures for much of California, the Southwest, Rio Grande 
Valley, Gulf Coast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England. Due to 
good agreement and consistency among the tools, the highest forecast confidence 
in the DJF Temperature Outlook is for above-normal temperatures (50-60 percent 
chance) across the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Southwest. In between the 
favored above across the southern tier and below farther to the north, equal 
chances of below, near, or above-normal temperatures are forecast as these 
areas are expected to have the most temperature variability this winter. The 
Alaska Temperature Outlook is quite consistent with La Niña composites and 
dynamical models which call for an increased chance of below (above)-normal 
temperatures for southeastern (northwestern) Alaska. 
 
The January-February-March (JFM) and February-March-April Temperature Outlooks 
hedged slightly colder than the dynamical model guidance across the Great 
Plains due to the potential for additional periods of a negative AO phase and 
at least one Arctic air outbreak in January and/or February. It should be noted 
that probabilities for below or above-normal temperatures are less than 50 
percent throughout the forecast domain during JFM as forecast confidence is 
tempered due to the expectation of a highly variable pattern within this 
three-month period. By April-May-June, above-normal temperatures become the 
most likely category for a majority of the lower 48 states and Alaska, and then 
the entire forecast domain is favored to have above-normal temperatures during 
September-October-November consistent with long-term trends . 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The DJF precipitation outlook is consistent with La Niña composites as the 
southern tier of the CONUS is typically drier-than-normal with above-normal 
precipitation more likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Great Plains, 
Upper Mississippi Valley, and from the Great Lakes south to the Ohio and 
Tennessee Valleys. Despite a wet signal in La Niña composites for western parts 
of Oregon and Washington, equal chances (EC) for below, near, or above-normal 
precipitation are forecast based on the NMME and consolidation tool. Compared 
to the previous month's release, below-normal precipitation probabilities were 
decreased to below 40 percent for southern California and the Southwest as the 
SST-Constructed Analog has a wetter signal for these areas. Also, the unusually 
wet October and November decrease forecast confidence that below-normal 
precipitation will verify during DJF. The highest confidence in below-normal 
precipitation across the southern tier of the CONUS exists for portions of the 
Southeast where drier-than-normal winters are very reliable during La Niña. 
Below-normal precipitation probabilities decrease to the south across the 
Florida Peninsula due in part to the drier winter climatology. Elevated 
below-normal precipitation probabilities extend northward to the Mid-Atlantic 
as the primary storm track is expected to be farther to the west across the 
Ohio Valley. This favored winter storm track results in enhanced above-normal 
precipitation probabilities for the Ohio Valley. It is typical to have a tight 
gradient between above and below normal precipitation from the Tennessee Valley 
south to the Gulf Coast during La Niña winters. Based on La Niña composites and 
good model agreement, the largest above-normal precipitation probabilities 
(more than 50 percent) are forecast across the Northern Rockies and Northern 
High Plains. Good model consistency supports an increased chance of 
above-normal precipitation for western Mainland Alaska. Overall the 
precipitation tools have trended wetter for southeastern Alaska where now the 
DJF outlook only slightly leans towards the drier side. 
 
Although a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely to occur during 
January-February-March 2026, a La Niña influence on the mid-latitude 
circulation pattern and anomalous precipitation is expected to linger through 
the late winter or even early spring. Therefore, the JFM and 
February-March-April Precipitation Outlooks are similar to La Niña composites 
with minor adjustments based on the NMME, C3S, and consolidation. Later in the 
spring and into the summer 2026, the coverage of EC increases due to weak 
and/or conflicting signals  among forecast guidance. At the longer lead times, 
long-term trends  were used to identify any areas with either favored below or 
above-normal precipitation.