NOAA has released their long range forecast for the months of November, December, and January in 2014/15. What they are showing in these forecasts is typical of an El Nino pattern with above average precipitation in the south and below average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Alaska (where the skiing is) is also forecast to receive above average precipitation during this period.
These models are also showing above average temperatures in the northern half of the country for this period. Alaska is also forecast to have above average temperatures. Only Texas and New Mexico are forecast to have below average temperatures during this period.
New Mexico is forecasted to have above average precipitation and below average temperatures. If there was ever a year to move to Taos, New Mexico, it’s this year…
14 thoughts on “NOAA’s 2014/15 Winter Weather Forecast for the USA: Nov, Dec, Jan”
I am taking this advice and am moving to Taos to work at the mountain tomorrow! No joke, so I hope the NOAA is right.
Why does the weather always stop at the Canadian border? Apparently it neither rains, snows or is sunny there.
I predict I am going to shred no matter what!
Forecasts are a realistic predictions of what the weather might be over the next week or so.
Outlooks are idle speculations that may on rare coincidence get lucky but are just as likely to be ludicrously WRONG.
FYI: Those images our OUTLOOKS not Forecasts.
Copy that Steve. How would you define the difference? thanks
I would also be interested in seeing your results/forecasts. Do you blog or have a site? Thanks.
Looks like how wrong their forecast was last year & will continue to be until they take out global warming garbage from computer models & start to use climatology from the last cold phase since we are in a cold phase now with negative PDO.
Even El Nina is different with negative PDO & this winter probably won’t even have El Nino but it it did it would be mild cold phase type sort of like the 1970s.
I put my forecasts out in November, got exact dates correct for record cold last year as CPC had to keep changing as always.
CPC has been wrong about the summer forecast. They said it would be above normal but it has been one of the coolest in US history. September turns cold as far South as Atlanta this year with frosty nights there & some big snows near Great Lakes so they are wrong even four weeks out lol
Autumn which starts end of Sept not fist will have some warm days then some unusually cold days averaging out below normal going by what normal is now. I don’t know for sure just yet but it’s looking like a bitterly cold winter for most of the nation with freezes deep into FL. The West will run mild & dry but then again, no significant El Nino. The SE will run above normal precip & below in temps but by how much I don’t know yet. I need to see Oct & early November data to select my last cold phase year for climatology. I have 12 selected now some from 1800s so will be down to 3 in two months then one for my own forecast & I sometimes get precip off but never wrong on temps.
Since 1970s I predicted the warm phase to the year then the cold phase to the year but CPC wasn’t even around back then yet government forecasts are usually wrong other than a day out or matter of hours lol so true and so sad.
Nice write up. How do I become a follower of your forecasts?
Doing my snow dance for Tahoe
I live in the Northwest and I think we could an exciting winter with lots of storms and snow this year! I really hope so anyway!I mean I haven’t really seen a lot of Nino development. And even if a weak one does develop 2006-2007 was a weak Nino and we had our wettest and stormiest November on record. Almost nonstop rain and mountain snow, several lowland snowstorms in January. And several windstorms including the deadly Hannukuh Eve Windstorm of December 14th-15th, 2006. And a major snowstorm/arctic blast in latye November during the Christmas season which brought 4 to 20 inches of snow and bitter cold! So I really don’t think mild and dry is the likely outcome here in Western Washington and the rest of the Northwest. We had our hottest summer on record! We need the rain!
Snowbrains you’re slacking! This is NOAA’s model from July 17. Check back on August 20 as it’s probably going to be slightly different and favoring less chance of El Nino sticking around for Winter.
Zia, that very well may be true. Thanks for the info. We’re on it. We’ll check back after Aug. 20th.