NOAA’s Official Fall & Early Winter Outlook for USA:

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NOAA is forecasting above average precipitation in WA, OR, ID, MT, WY in Oct, Nov, Dec. NOAA is forecasting below average precipitation for the lower half of the country during the same time period. image: noaa
NOAA is forecasting above average precipitation in WA, OR, ID, MT, WY, southeast AK in Oct, Nov, Dec. NOAA is forecasting below average precipitation for UT, AZ, CO, NM, southern AK, and the lower half of the country during the same time period. image: noaa

NOAA just released their latest weather predictions for the fall & early winter in the USA.  Meteorologic fall begins in September 1st and meteorologic winter starts on December 1st.

NOAA is calling for a 55-60% chance of La Nina this fall/winter and this outlook follows a La Nina pattern.  La Nina generally drops above average snow in the Pacific Northwest and that’s what NOAA is calling for this fall and early winter.

Here is what NOAA is forecasting:

ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR:

  • Northern Oregon
  • Washington
  • Northern Idaho
  • Montana
  • Southeast Alaska

BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR:

  • Utah
  • Colorado
  • New Mexico
  • Arizona
  • Southern Alaska
NOAA is forecasting above average temperatures in Oct, Nov, Dec for all of the USA. image: noaa
NOAA is forecasting above average temperatures in Oct, Nov, Dec for all of the USA. image: noaa

EQUAL CHANCES FOR:

  • California
  • Southern Oregon
  • Wyoming
  • Western Nevada

ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR:

  • Everyone

NOAA’s Forecast Discussion for Long Range 2016/17 Forecast:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 
830 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
THE CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC STATE INDICATES ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS, 
WITH A TRANSITION TO WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AUG-SEP-OCT 
(ASO) 2016 SEASON. THE LATEST CPC/IRI CONSENSUS ENSO FORECAST DEPICTS A 
PROBABILITY OF 55-60 PERCENT FOR A WEAK LA NINA DURING THE AUTUMN AND EARLY 
WINTER. 
 
THE SON 2016 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA. 
DYNAMICAL MODEL SUPPORT AND/OR HISTORICAL TRENDS FAVOR PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS 
OF 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES, GULF COAST REGION, THE EASTERN 
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN THIRDS OF ALASKA. 
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE IN EXCESS OF 
70 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO WARMING 
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES AND THE ASSOCIATED DELAYED ONSET OF SEA ICE 
FORMATION (AND REDUCED COVERAGE OF MULTI-YEAR ICE) ACROSS THE NEARBY ARCTIC 
OCEAN. 
 
THE SON 2016 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ALASKA 
PANHANDLE, BASED PRIMARILY ON AVAILABLE CLIMATE MODEL GUIDANCE. BELOW-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN NEVADA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS 
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE, THE 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND MUCH OF KENTUCKY. THIS IS BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE, 
AND ON HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE SON SEASON. 
 
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEASONAL MEAN 
TEMPERATURES OR SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES ARE MOSTLY 1-2 DEGREES C BELOW AVERAGE CLOSE TO THE 
EQUATOR FROM ABOUT 170W EASTWARD TO 100W, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS PREVAIL FROM 
ABOUT 170E TO THE MARITIME CONTINENT. THE MOST RECENT THREE-MONTH AVERAGE NINO 
3.4 SST ANOMALY IS +0.18 DEGREE C FOR MJJ. THE LATEST WEEKLY NINO 3.4 ANOMALY 
HAS NOW DECREASED TO -0.5 DEGREE C. A LARGE RESERVOIR OF ANOMALOUSLY COOL 
SUBSURFACE WATERS EXTENDS TO MORE THAN 150 METERS BELOW THE SURFACE, WITH THE 
LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES 3-4 DEGREES C BELOW AVERAGE AT A DEPTH OF ABOUT 125 
METERS, BETWEEN 140W-160W. POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES (SUPPRESSED CONVECTION) WERE 
PRESENT OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES (ENHANCED 
CONVECTION) IS PRESENT OVER INDONESIA, DURING THE PAST 30-DAYS. LOW-LEVEL, 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AT THE 850-HPA LEVEL HAVE BEEN NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE 
PAST MONTH, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL, 200-HPA WINDS ARE ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY OVER 
THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FROM THE DATE LINE EASTWARD TO 150W. ANOMALOUS 
INTEGRATED EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 300 METERS 
DEPTH HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY NEGATIVE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. NEGATIVE 
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF LA NINA 
CONDITIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF 2016. THE EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN 
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION 
(PDO) WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA, 
AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES PERSIST IN 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST, AND THE THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION PREDICTS A WEAK LA NINA BEGINNING IN ASO 2016 AND 
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AUTUMN AND MUCH OF WINTER, WITH A PEAK AMPLITUDE IN 
SST ANOMALY OF -0.7 DEGREE C BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE DJF 2016-17 SEASON. 
PREDICTIONS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) MEMBERS 
INDICATE A RANGE OF NINO 3.4 ANOMALIES, WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN NEAR -0.5 C FROM 
AUGUST THROUGH DECEMBER. THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST INDICATES LA NINA IS 
SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO DEVELOP DURING ASO 2016, WITH ABOUT A 55-60 PERCENT CHANCE 
OF LA NINA DURING THE AUTUMN AND WINTER 2016-17. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
CALIBRATED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE NMME PROVIDE THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE 
FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR SON 2016. THE PREDICTED TRANSITION TO LA NINA 
CONDITIONS AND THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS ARE CONSIDERED FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS 
PRIMARILY BEGINNING IN OND 2016 THROUGH THE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING, 2017. IN 
ADDITION TO DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME, THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS ARE 
ALSO BASED ON THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), THE INTERNATIONAL 
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME), A SST-BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOG AND OTHER 
ADDITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING REGRESSION-BASED IMPACTS OF ENSO, AND 
DECADAL TRENDS INHERENT IN THE CPC CONSOLIDATION (CON) TOOL. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - SON 2016 TO SON 2017 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR SON 2016 IS SIMILAR TO THE OUTLOOK MADE LAST MONTH 
FOR THE SAME TARGET PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES AND ALASKA. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR 
THE CONUS INCLUDE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES (IN EXCESS OF 60 PERCENT), THE GULF 
COAST ENVIRONS AND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST 
(IN EXCESS OF 50 PERCENT). FOR ALASKA, THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE (IN EXCESS OF 60 
PERCENT), AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ALASKA (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT). THESE 
AREAS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE CLIMATE MODELS, SUCH AS THE CALIBRATED 
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (PAC), IMME, CFS, CANADIAN 
MODELS, AND ON HISTORICAL TRENDS. A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (33-40 PERCENT) IS INDICATED FROM 
THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS 
REPRESENTS THE EARLY EFFECTS OF A DEVELOPING WEAK LA NINA. 
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FROM OND 2016 THROUGH AMJ 2017 INCLUDE THE ANTICIPATED 
IMPACTS OF A WEAK LA NINA. APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS 
FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THESE LEADS, WITH THE 
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES (IN EXCESS OF 50 
PERCENT FROM OND 2016 THROUGH MAM 2017). CLIMATE MODELS AND HISTORICAL TRENDS 
WERE ALSO INCORPORATED INTO THESE OUTLOOKS. FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF 
OF THE CONUS, HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EC IS 
FAVORED THROUGHOUT THESE LEADS. STARTING IN OND, A SMALL AREA OF EC IS FAVORED 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED 
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (IN 
EXCESS OF 40 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE 
NORTHEAST, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND CLIMATE MODEL 
GUIDANCE. DURING NDJ, THE AREA OF PREDICTED EC EXPANDS EASTWARD AND 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE 
EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ARE FAVORED. FROM DJF 2016-17 THROUGH AMJ 2017, AN AREA OF BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND 
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FOLLOWED BY EASTWARD EXPANSION TO MICHIGAN AND 
WESTWARD EXPANSION TO WASHINGTON AND OREGON DURING JFM AND FMA 2017. BY MAM AND 
AMJ 2017, THE COVERAGE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN 
SIZE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC 
AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY AMJ. 
 
THE LATTER LEADS, MJJ THROUGH SON 2017, ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON LONGER-TERM 
TEMPERATURE TRENDS, WITH ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. 
 
IN ALASKA, HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND MOST OF THE AVAILABLE CLIMATE 
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TWO LEADS. THE 
EXPECTATION OF A WEAK LA NINA FORMS THE BASIS FOR EC INCREASING IN COVERAGE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE DURING NDJ AND DJF. BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST PART OF 
THE MAINLAND DURING JFM AND FMA, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. FROM MAM TO SON 2017, THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE 
OUTLOOK IS PRIMARILY ATTRIBUTED TO TRENDS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
FAVORED INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE DURING MAM AND AMJ, WHICH THEN EXPANDS 
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE STATE BY JAS, ASO, AND SON 2017. 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CLIMATE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HISTORICAL 
PRECIPITATION TRENDS, WITH TRENDS BEING ESPECIALLY FAVORED DURING THE LATTER 
LEADS. IN SON, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS NEVADA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN 
QUARTER OF THE CONUS. FROM OND 2016 THROUGH MAM 2017, THE ANTICIPATED IMPACTS 
OF A WEAK LA NINA ARE DEPICTED. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST, WHICH REDUCES IN SIZE BY FMA AND MAM TO INCLUDE THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DJF, JFM, AND FMA SEASONS. THIS WET 
SIGNAL IS OFTEN OBSERVED DURING LA NINA WINTERS, AND USUALLY WINDS DOWN DURING 
MAM AND AMJ. IN CONTRAST, BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO INCREASE IN 
AREAL COVERAGE DURING OND AND NDJ TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS 
RELATIVELY DRY SIGNAL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES 
THROUGH THE MAM SEASON, AS IS TYPICAL OF LA NINA WINTERS. BY AMJ 2017, THE 
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON HISTORICAL TRENDS AS 
INDICATED BY THE CPC CONSOLIDATION TOOL. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN AMJ AND MJJ, WHICH SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST 
STATES DURING JJA, JAS, AND ASO, WITH A RESIDUAL WET SIGNAL REMAINING OVER 
MAINE BY SON 2017. DURING JJA AND JAS, A DRY TREND IS FAVORED OVER THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. 
 
IN ALASKA, CLIMATE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
FOR THE PANHANDLE IN BOTH SON AND OND, WITH THE WET SIGNAL SHIFTING TO FAR 
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 3 SEASONS (NDJ, DJF, AND 
JFM). BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM NDJ THROUGH JFM. THIS IS A COMMON FEATURE OF LA NINA 
WINTERS. FOR FMA 2017 AND BEYOND, THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE TILT IN THE ODDS 
TOWARDS ANY ONE PRECIPITATION CATEGORY. 
 
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA 
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING 
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES 
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT 
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. 
 
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE 
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML 
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM 
L 
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) 
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM 
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. 
 
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT 
MONTH ON SEP 15 2016 
 
 
1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 
FORECAST RELEASE.

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