NOAA’s Official Outlook for April in the USA:

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NOAA is forecasting above average precipitation in April for CA, NV, ID, WY, AZ, NM, AK, CO, the Central US, the Southern US, the Southeastern US, and the Eastern Seaboard. NOAA is forecasting below average precipitation in March for WA, OR, ID, MT, WY, northwestern AK, and the Great Lakes Region.
NOAA is forecasting above average precipitation in April for basically the entire southern half of the USA:  CA, NV, southern ID, UT, WY, AZ, NM, CO, northwest AK, the Central US, the Southern US, the Southeastern US. NOAA is forecasting below average precipitation in April for WA, northern OR (Mt. Hood) , northern ID, far northwest MT, MI, WI, MN.

NOAA just released their official outlook for the month of April in the USA yesterday.  They continue to follow an El Nino influenced pattern of above average precipitation in the southern half of the USA and above average temperatures in the northern half of the USA.

As of right now the places with the most snowfall this season in North America are all on the West Coast:

  1. Alyeska, AK = 721″
  2. Mt. Baker, WA = 571″
  3. Sugar Bowl, CA = 514″
  4. Crystal Mountain, WA = 487″
  5. Sugar Bowl, CA = 472″

This April Outlook Looks Good for:

  • CA, NV, UT, WY, CO, WY, AZ, NM & southern ID.  The only issue is going to be snow levels, but that isn’t abnormal, especially as we move into spring.

This April Outlook Looks Bad for:

  • WA, OR, & northern ID where below average precipitation is forecast along with above average temperatures.  That said, Baker in WA continues to get dumped on and has the 2nd most snow in North America and the 2nd deepest snowpack in North America.  East Coast ski country has above average temps forecast along with equal chances for precipitation for most ski areas.
NOAA is forecasting above average precipitation in April for CA, NV, ID, WY, AZ, NM, AK, CO, the Central US, the Southern US, the Southeastern US, and the Eastern Seaboard. NOAA is forecasting below average precipitation in March for WA, OR, ID, MT, WY, northwestern AK, and the Great Lakes Region.
NOAA is forecasting above average temperatures in April for the entire Western USA, the entire Northeast, and all of Alaska.  Below average temperatures are forecast for AR, western TX, LA, MS.

Above Average Precipitation is Forecast in April for:

  • California
  • Nevada
  • Utah
  • Southern Idaho
  • Colorado
  • Wyoming
  • Arizona
  • New Mexico

Below Average Precipitation is Forecast in April for:

  • Northern Oregon
  • Washington
  • Northern Idaho
Mt. Baker, WA March 16th, 2016. photo: Brad Andrew
Mt. Baker, WA March 16th, 2016. photo: Brad Andrew

FULL APRIL BREAKDOWN FROM NOAA:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 
830 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2016 
 
THE APRIL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED WITH 
CONSIDERATIONS FROM ONGOING STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY, 
MOST RECENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INTEGRATED OVER MULTIPLE TIME PERIODS. 
 
STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN 
WHILE THE MJO CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE NOW 
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH TIME. 
THE MJO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND 
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BY 
APRIL. THE MJO WILL FIRST DESTRUCTIVELY, THEN CONSTRUCTIVELY INTERFERE WITH THE 
EL NINO BASE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE 
VARIABILITY IN THE PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS TROPICAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARITIME 
CONTINENT AND WESTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS PERIOD. BY APRIL, THERE MAY EMERGE A 
COUPLET OF EQUATORIAL SUPPRESSED/ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARITIME 
CONTINENT AND WESTERN PACIFIC THAT CAN BE CONSIDERED FOR POTENTIAL 
TELECONNECTION TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING EARLY APRIL. 
 
ABOVE AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT IN MID-MARCH FOR A REGION 
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHEASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO 
VALLEY. 
 
THE APRIL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, THE 
WESTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. 
AREAS IN ALASKA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH 
EL NINO CONDITIONS AND STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL. 
ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN WATERS NEIGHBORING SOUTHERN 
ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE 
AREAS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACK OF 
EL NINO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WINTER MONTHS IN MANY OF THESE AREAS. LAGGED 
COMPOSITES WITH CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY SUPPORT POTENTIAL MEAN RIDGING AND ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CONUS IN EARLY APRIL AND 
THIS ALONG WITH SOME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FAVORS A TILT IN THE ODDS 
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA. WET SURFACE CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD AND MODEST DYNAMICAL 
MODEL SUPPORT FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
 
THE APRIL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA. EL NINO 
CONDITIONS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT AREAS ACROSS THE WEST, THE 
PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. MJO CONSIDERATIONS ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT TILT IN 
THE ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS IN THE OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE 
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MONTH. FOR ALASKA, BELOW AVERAGE SEA ICE 
COVERAGE AND CFS GUIDANCE SUPPORT ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLIGHTED 
AREA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, PARTS OF 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND IS 
CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE 
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

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