NOAA generally won’t talk about the week 2 (Jan 31st – Feb6th) outlook, but today they did and it doesn’t look good…
"Another period of dry weather is looking more and more likely along the west coast for the first part of February. Something the meager snowpack here in the Sierra doesn`t need." - NOAA Reno,NV today
California’s statewide snowpack is sitting at only 23% of average right now.
Fortunately, California’s mountains are forecast to see 8-14″ of snow above 7,000′ on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 14 inches above 7000 feet. - NOAA Reno, NV today
Unfortunately, not much snow or rain is forecast to fall in CA next week either:
Daytime high temperatures are expected to warm around 10 degrees for the weekend as high pressure begins to build over the southwest U.S. Moisture moving into northern California will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy for the weekend with moderate breezes Saturday, especially in the mountains. - NOAA Reno, NV today
WEEK 2 NOAA OUTLOOK FOR CALIFORNIA:
For more on the building ridge along the west coast and outlook for precipitation check out the Week 2 Outlook below.Week 2 Outlook...Jan 31st-Feb 6th...Issued 3pm 1/23 Another period of dry weather is looking more and more likely along the west coast for the first part of February. Something the meager snowpack here in the Sierra doesn`t need. Long range ensemble models and short term climate models are in good agreement of a ridge building off the U.S. west coast as a trough moves through the Midwest and begins to amplify in the central and northeastern states. This trough along with a trough deepening in the central Pacific will help to lock the ridge in the west in place with a dry weather pattern for the west. Atmospheric River tools show the next AR for the end of January impacting the Pacific Northwest with the storm track continuing to move north after that. In this pattern we can still get systems to slide in from the north but these kind of storms generally don`t bring significant amounts of moisture to the region. Another factor that could come into play is a building Madden- Julian Oscillation event. A currently active MJO currently over southeast Asia is forecast to move into the West Pacific in early February. If this occurs, and signal remains strong it would provide an additional teleconnection and support with dry conditions along the west coast and potentially. This could reinforce the ridge along the west coast and extend the period of dryness past the first week of February. It`s impossible to say how long this pattern will last, but for now all signs are pointing to at least a dry start for February. For now, we`ll just have to wait for winter to return. -Zach * The Week 2 Outlook discussion is an experimental part of the Area Forecast Discussion. This product is designed to highlight the potential for significant pattern changes beyond day 7 and will not be issued on a daily basis. - NOAA Reno, NV today