Official NOAA 2014/15 Winter Weather Forecast for the USA:

[note:  as you scroll down in the article, you will encounter detailed winter weather forecast maps in chronological order starting with forecast maps of Nov, Dec, Jan and ending with forecast maps for Feb, Mar, April.]

NOAA has released an official 2014/15 winter weather forecast.  They are still showing an El Nino pattern with below average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Above average precipitation in the Pacific Southwest.  They are also forecasting above average temperatures in the northern half of the country along with below average temperatures in New Mexico and Texas.  This forecast is looking good for Taos, New Mexico.

It’s very remarkable how similar all of these forecast maps look.  Most all show the same thing:  warm and dry to the north, cooler and wet to the south.  This reflects the typical El Nino pattern.

PRECIPITATION 
 
THROUGH AUTUMN 2014, THERE ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FROM 
MOST MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME AND IMME FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS 
AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO CONTRADICT COMPOSITES AND 
CORRELATIONS BASED ON NINO3.4 INDEX VALUES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST, SO THE 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE REDUCED WHERE THE COMPOSITES 
MOST STRONGLY DISAGREE.

AS SEASONS PROGRESS INTO WINTER THE OUTLOOKS REFLECT THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN 
ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO EVENTS, WITH ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FAVORED 
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED ACTIVE 
SOUTHERN STREAM, AND A TENDENCY FOR BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THIS POINT PROBABILITIES 
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY DIFFERENT FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN MOST AREAS DUE TO 
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF EL NINO.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MAM 2015 AND BEYOND SHOW EQUAL CHANCES FOR 
BELOW-, NEAR- AND ABOVE-MEDIAN SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT 
THE CONUS AND ALASKA.  STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW THE NINO 3.4 SSTS WEAKENING TO 
NEAR NORMAL BY LATE SPRING 2015, LEAVING LITTLE PREDICTABLE SIGNAL FOR 
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES. 
 
FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

TEMPERATURE
 
THE ASO THROUGH NDJ 2014-15 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS INDICATE ELEVATED 
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF ALASKA. 
ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WERE A FACTOR IN THE ALASKA 
OUTLOOKS. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE 
ALSO FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS DURING 
ASO AND SON 2014, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH CON, NMME, AND IMME OUTPUTS. 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS 
THROUGH OND 2014. THESE SIGNALS ARE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD RANGE OF TOOLS AND 
DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODELS.

COMPOSITES BASED ON THE CURRENT PHASE OF THE PDO AND DEVELOPING ENSO WARM 
EVENTS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE 
COUNTRY THROUGH THE AUTUMN. FROM NDJ 2014-15 THROUGH MAM 2015, BELOW-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, 
SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT, CPC EL NINO COMPOSITES, AND REGRESSIONS OF 
TEMPERATURE ONTO THE NINO3.4 AND MULTIVARIATE ENSO INDICES.

THE OUTLOOKS FROM AMJ TO ASO 2015 SHOW A COMBINATION OF RECENT TRENDS AND 
TYPICAL EVOLUTION FOLLOWING EL NINO EVENTS AS WELL AS THE CPC CON. ENHANCED 
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COVERED MOST OF THE MAPS, CONSISTENT 
WITH THE CPC CON, WITH THE PROBABILITY VALUES CHANGED LITTLE FROM LAST MONTH. 
 
IN AREAS WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL AND RELIABLE CLIMATE SIGNALS, EQUAL CHANCES OF 
BELOW-, NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED.