Weather
The Old Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast for 2026-27, released August 28, is good news for skiers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and the northern Appalachians of West Virginia and Virginia. Snowfall is expected to run above normal in those states, even as much of the country trends toward a milder-than-average winter.
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The Almanac has been forecasting weather since 1792. Its long-range predictions blend solar science, climatology, and meteorology with historical weather patterns and large-scale climate signals, including a strong El Niño that returned this summer.
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Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Forecast at a Glance
Below is a region-by-region breakdown for the ski areas that matter most.
Pacific Northwest: Washington, Oregon, Idaho
The Pacific Northwest is set up for a wet, snowy winter. Across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, the Almanac calls for above-normal temperatures but also above-normal precipitation, and above-normal snowfall. The snowiest stretches should land in late December, mid-January, and mid-February. Coldest periods are expected in late December, early January, and early February.
Intermountain Region: Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Nevada
Skiers in the Intermountain region, which covers much of the interior Mountain West across Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada, can expect a warmer and wetter winter than average, with above-normal snowfall. That could mean tricky travel at times. The heaviest snow is forecast for late November, late December, and early February. Cold snaps are likely in mid- to late December, early and late January, and early February.
Pacific Southwest: California
Mountain areas of California should see near- to above-normal snowfall as the Pacific Southwest trends warmer and wetter overall. The Almanac flags late December, mid- to late January, early February, and late March as the stormiest windows, with additional storm activity in early and late March.
Northeast and Appalachians: New England, New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina
The picture splits sharply by latitude in the East. Across northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont), temperatures are expected to run above normal with below-normal snowfall, while southern New England, including Massachusetts and Connecticut, should be colder than normal with above-normal snowfall. Snowiest periods across the Northeast fall in mid- and late December, mid-January, and early and late March.
Further south, the Appalachians, spanning West Virginia, western Virginia, western Pennsylvania, western North Carolina, and eastern Tennessee, face a tougher winter overall, with below-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall, especially across the northern half of the range. Coldest periods hit in mid-January and mid- to late February, with the heaviest snow arriving in mid-January and in early and late February.
Ohio Valley: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky
The Ohio Valley, covering Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky, is also on the colder side of the forecast, with below-normal temperatures and slightly below-normal snowfall overall. Snow chances cluster in mid- and late January, mid-February, and early March, with the coldest air arriving mid- and late January.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Forecast for Alaska
Alaska should stay cold by national standards but still run above normal for the region, with more snow than average. The snowiest stretches are expected in mid-November, early and late January, mid-February, and late March, while the coldest air arrives late December, mid-January, and mid-February.
Upper Midwest and Lower Lakes: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
For Midwest riders in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the Upper Midwest starts mild before turning colder than normal as winter progresses, with snowfall running near to below normal despite frequent chances for snow in early and late January, late February, and early March. The Lower Lakes region, including lower Michigan and the Great Lakes shoreline, should stay warmer than normal with near- to below-normal snowfall, though snow chances persist in early and late January and early February.
Desert Southwest and High Plains: Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming, the Dakotas
Snow-dependent areas of Arizona and New Mexico should brace for a lean winter. The Almanac calls for below-normal snowfall even in terrain that typically holds snow, with the Desert Southwest running warmer and drier overall. The High Plains, stretching from Wyoming through the Dakotas, face a similar setup: above-normal temperatures, below-normal precipitation and below-normal snowfall, with the best snow chances in late January and mid-March.
What’s Driving This Year’s Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Forecast
A strong El Niño returned this summer after last winter’s La Niña faded to neutral, and it’s expected to persist through the season. Warmer equatorial Pacific waters can shift the jet stream, typically favoring milder temperatures across much of the U.S. and wetter conditions in parts of the West and South — a pattern reflected across several of this year’s regional outlooks.
Solar Cycle 25 has also passed its peak, with solar activity now waning. The Almanac notes that periods of high solar activity have historically correlated with warmer average temperatures, though that relationship has weakened over time.
Forecasters are also tracking a persistent warm pattern in the Atlantic, a weakening cool pattern in the Pacific, and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, a recurring shift in high-altitude winds above the equator. A southward shift in the polar vortex, the pool of Arctic air that typically stays near the North Pole, could still push colder air deeper into the U.S. at times. The Almanac is also watching sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, where a neutral-to-positive Indian Ocean Dipole could strengthen the Pacific jet stream and boost storm activity in parts of the country.
The Almanac frames the outlook as a blend of these signals rather than any single factor, cautioning that no one indicator determines what a given winter will bring.
How the Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Forecast Compares
The Old Farmer’s Almanac lands furthest from consensus on the Pacific Northwest, compared to The Farmers’ Almanac, and NOAA. Where the Almanac calls for above-normal snowfall in Washington, Oregon and Idaho, both other outlooks point the opposite direction. The Farmers’ Almanac describes the region’s snow season as “more changeable and somewhat less dependable,” while NOAA’s El Niño-based outlook is even more bearish; it places western Washington and Oregon in a 60-to-70%-plus probability zone for above-normal warmth and flags Montana and Idaho as sitting in the driest zone on the entire map. The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Intermountain forecast is similarly out of step: it calls for above-normal snowfall across Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Nevada, while NOAA has Colorado and Utah in neutral “equal-chance” territory with no favored wet or dry signal, and treats Montana as part of the same dry pocket dragging down the Northern Rockies.
California is where the three forecasts come closest to agreeing, though even here the confidence differs sharply. NOAA’s El Niño outlook is the most bullish by far, putting greater than 50% odds on above-normal precipitation for coastal California and citing the historically wet winters of 1997-98 and 2024 as analogs, calling it “the strongest positive seasonal signal in the entire forecast cycle.” The Old Farmer’s Almanac is more measured, projecting only “near- to above-normal” snowfall for California’s mountains. The Farmers’ Almanac doesn’t isolate California specifically but folds it into a broader “active southern storm track” running from the Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, a wetter-leaning read that’s directionally consistent with the other two, even if less region-specific. On the Northeast, all three agree on warmth outpacing snow in the south, NOAA’s data shows the deepest warm signal of its entire forecast cycle for New England and the Mid-Atlantic, the Farmers’ Almanac calls the region’s pattern “one of the season’s most complicated,” and the Old Farmer’s Almanac splits the region by latitude, with southern New England running colder and snowier than the north. Where the Almanac diverges again is the northern Appalachians: it’s the only one of the three to call for a colder-than-normal, above-normal-snow winter there, a signal the other two forecasts don’t isolate at that scale.
The full 2026-27 Old Farmer’s Almanac includes 12-month long-range forecasts for every U.S. region.
